Retail, Trade, Small-Business Data On Tuesday's Economic Calendar

Includes: DIA, QQQ, SPY
by: optionMONSTER

By Bryan McCormick

The National Federation of Independent Business will release its Small Business Optimism Index at 7 a.m. ET. Economists do not make forecasts for the report, but last month's index came in at 89.9.

A lower reading would indicate a decline in optimism by small-business owners, while a rise would break several months of persistent drops in the index.

At 7:45 a.m. ET, the weekly ICSC/Goldman Store Sales report will be released. There are two parts to the report, the week-over-week and year-over-year comparisons. Most traders focus on the year-over-year number because it is a better indicator of the longer-term trend.

The last week-over-week reading showed a loss of -0.7 percent. The year-over-year data in the previous report showed a gain of 2.7 percent. Stronger-than-expected positive numbers would be seen as bullish, while negative numbers would be bearish.

Import and Export Prices will be reported at 8:30 a.m. ET. Import prices are expected to drop by -0.8 percent, while export prices are expected to be flat. This would be disinflationary.

The range for import prices is from -2 percent to 0.2 percent. For export prices the range is also from -0.2 percent to 0.2 percent. The ideal would be for import prices to drop more than export prices; the most bearish outcome would be for import prices to rise while export prices drop, which would be an inflationary outcome.

The weekly Redbook Store Sales will be reported at 8:55 a.m. ET. As with the ICSC-Goldman report, there are two components to watch. One is the more volatile month-over-month change while the other is the year-over-year comparison, which shows the broader trend best.

The last month-over-month change was a gain of 0.4 percent. The previous report's year-over-year data showed a gain of 4.9 percent. Negative numbers in either series would be bearish.

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