If Hyperion Shareholders Nix Oracle Offer, Share Prices Could Fall

Includes: HYSL, ORCL
by: William Trent, CFA
Analyst: Hyperion Should Nix Oracle Deal:

Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) will plunk down $3.3 billion to buy Hyperion Solutions Corp. (HYSL), but at least one analyst thinks the transaction is a bad deal for Hyperion investors. Roth Capital Partners analyst Nathan Schneiderman, who has a “Hold” rating on Hyperion, thinks shareholders should vote the deal down.

“We’re all for makin’ a quick buck, don’t get us wrong — what we don’t like is leaving most of the spoils on the table for Oracle,” Schneiderman wrote in a note to investors.

As we said when the deal was announced:

The buyout price would be around $50 per Hyperion share, about a 25% premium [Ed. note: actually the deal was for 10% more than the rumored price] to the closing price. Given that its shares were already up 30% since issuing a strong outlook in January, its shareholders ought to be pretty happy right now.

And, should the shareholders vote down the deal in hopes of either a higher offer from Oracle or a competing bid, they could just as easily see a lower price as a higher one.

HYSL 1-yr chart:

HYSL 1-yr chart

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