News Doesn't Move The Markets, It Just Follows Their Cycle

Sep. 26, 2011 6:37 PM ET20 Comments

A month ago everyone was sitting on the edge of their seats, waiting for the Fed chairman’s speech at Jackson Hole. Memories of Jackson Hole 2010 were resounding for investors. Were they going to leverage themselves to the hilt to buy as many risk assets as they possibly could (with hints of QE3), or were they going to have to liquidate all their holdings with no mention of QE3?

Well, Bernanke did not give the market what it wanted, and even went so far as suggesting that there would be no more QE at this time. Based on this statement, one would have thought people would be out selling. Yet, the market rallied from that point, causing some to scratch their heads.

Prior Government Interventions

This past week, we all did it again. This time, Bernanke gave the market exactly what it was expecting, with $400 billion in Operation Twist. One would have thought the market would rally when it got what it expected. Yet the market sold off hard, causing more head-scratching.

If we take an honest look at the timing of all of the government easing action from the start of the financial crisis in 2008 until today, you will see that these actions were not nearly as effective as the public is led to believe. If you simply take a cursory look at all the actions of the government during the decline in 2008, you would almost have to come to the conclusion that the government action of bailing out Fannie, Freddie and the financial institutions, as well as the Fed’s announcement of QE1, caused the resulting decline in the stock market. In fact, one can argue that the announcement of QE1 caused the largest and fastest part of the decline that shaved off 400+ points in the S&P 500 within a period of several weeks. All

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Avi is an accountant and a lawyer by training. His education background includes his graduating college with dual accounting and economics majors, and he then passed all four parts of the CPA exam at once right after he graduated college. He then earned his Juris Doctorate in an advanced two and a half year program at the St. John’s School of Law in New York, where he graduated cumlaude, and in the top 5% of his class. He then went onto the NYU School of Law for his masters of law in taxation (LL.M.).

Before retiring from his legal career, Avi was a partner and National Director at a major national firm. During his legal career, he spearheaded a number of acquisition transactions worth hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in value. So, clearly, Mr. Gilburt has a detailed understanding how businesses work and are valued.

Yet, when it came to learning how to accurately analyze the financial markets, Avi had to unlearn everything he learned in economics in order to maintain on the correct side of the market the great majority of the time. In fact, once he came to the realization that economics and geopolitics fail to assist in understanding how the market works, it allowed him to view financial markets from a more accurate perspective.

For those interested in how Avi went from a successful lawyer and accountant to become the founder of, his detailed story is linked here.
Since Avi began providing his analysis to the public, he has made some spectacular market calls which has earned him the reputation of being one of the best technical analysts in the world.

As an example of some of his most notable astounding market calls, in July of 2011, he called for the USD to begin a multi-year rally from the 74 region to an ideal target of 103.53. In January of 2017, the DXY struck 103.82 and began a pullback expected by Avi.

As another example of one of his astounding calls, Avi called the top in the gold market during its parabolic phase in 2011, with an ideal target of $1,915. As we all know, gold hit a high of $1,921, and pulled back for over 4 years since that time. The night that gold hit its lows in December of 2015, Avi was telling his subscribers that he was on the phone with his broker buying a large order of physical gold, while he had been accumulating individual miner stocks that month, and had just opened the EWT Miners Portfolio to begin buying individual miners stocks due to his expectation of an impending low in the complex.

One of his most shocking calls in the stock market was his call in 2015 for the S&P500 to rally from the 1800SPX region to the 2600SPX region, whereas it would coincide with a “global melt-up” in many other assets. Moreover, he was banging on the table in November of 2016 that we were about to enter the most powerful phase of the rally to 2600SPX, and he strongly noted that it did not matter who won the 2016 election in the US, despite many believing that the market would “crash” if Trump would win the election. This was indeed a testament to the accuracy of the Fibonacci Pinball method that Avi developed.

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