ENI S.p.A. (NYSE:E) Special Call October 6, 2011 1:00 PM ET
Paolo Scaroni – Chief Executive Officer
Claudio Descalzi – Chief Operating Officer Exploration & Production
Roberto Casula – Executive Vice President Sub-Saharan Africa
Alessandro Bernini – Chief Financial Officer
Charles Hall – Newton Investment Management
Jon Rigby – UBS
Simon Hawkins – MF Global
Jason Kenney – Santander
Iain Reid – Jefferies & Co.
(Call Started Abruptly)
Chief Operation Officer, Alessandro Bernini, Chief Financial Officer, Roberto Casula Executive Vice President, Sub-Saharan Africa. For the duration of the call, you will be in listen-only mode. However, at the end of the call you have the opportunity to ask questions.
I’m now handing you over to your host to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to our Field Trip to Congo. I hope you found the meeting with the President of Republic of Congo interesting and truthful. I’m also pleased that you had a chance to witness the excellent relationship that we have with the local institutions here. This is a trade that characterizes our approach wherever we operate, especially in Africa. Today, I will tell you more about the distinctive ways in which we try to build and consolidate relationships with our host countries and how this supports our growth prospects.
But first, the program for the next couple of hours. After my brief overview, I will hand you over to Claudio and Roberto, who will take you through our major ENP projects around the world and in the regions. And then, Alessandro will bring you up-to-date on our financial position. But first, let me give you an update on a few issues, which you might be interested in, the first, is Libya.
In Libya, we are working closely with the new management of NOC to restart all our operations. In the last few weeks, we have been to Bengazi and Tripoli. We open our offices in Tripoli and we started production at our Istanbul, Attifel oil field, which is producing almost 70,000 barrels a day. As for our other oil fields in Libya, including Elephant wells facilities and transportation systems have not been damaged.
In general, we expect oil production to reach pre-crisis levels in about 12 months. With regards to our oil – to our gas fields, which account for around 70% of our Libyan production, our employees have boarded the Sabratha Platform at the Bahz Essalam field located in the sea off the coast of Tripoli.
If security allows, we will restart production from this field before the end of the year. Full gas production will be restored in the early part of next year, meanwhile we will resume gas export to Italy through the Greenstream Pipeline gradually starting this month, as well as the ENP production, Libya has also impacted gas and power results and we are (inaudible) pleased we are heading towards a resolution on this front.
The other major uncertainty affecting gas and power in 2011 has been the ongoing renegotiations of our main gas supply contracts with Gazprom and Sonatrach. I want to give you an update on this front. Our discussions with Sonatrach had been positive and we are close to reaching a mutually satisfactory conclusion. Our discussion with Gazprom are progressing and we have seen evidence of an increasingly constructive dialogue, but it is difficult to be deterministic about the timing of a deal, we remain confident about the outcome. The satisfactory closure of these negotiations will improve our supply costs making them competitive with stock prices. It is true that stock prices have risen over the past two months thanks to increasing gas demand in the Far East offsetting weaker gas margin in Europe.
Our oil-linked prices have also been driven upwards by higher oil prices keeping the gate open. Finalizing the ongoing renegotiation with our suppliers will remove the significant uncertainty in our Gas & Power business and put us in a good position to grow volumes and profits, when the gas market tightens, which we expect by 2013, 2014.
And now let’s turn another topic you might be interested in, our main subsidiaries. With regards to Snam as you know, our strategy has changed. The adoption of the European Third Gas Directive and we’ve been studying options to unlock value from this stage.
We will provide further information on this topic at our next strategy presentation, bearing in mind that any disclosure will need the approval of the Italian Government. Our aim here is to make the whole process shareholder friendly for investors in both Snam and Eni.
Turning now to Saipem, nothing has changed. Saipem is a core part of our strategy and has (inaudible) with our upstream. Last but not least, Galp. As we have said before, we are working to crystallize the value of our stake. There is no doubt that there are parties, which are interested in acquiring it. Meanwhile, our shareholder agreement means that any disposal will need to be agreed with our partners Maureen Manor here and the Portuguese Government.
But now let’s get back to the reason why we are here. Africa is our core area, we have been present on the continent since entering Egypt in 1954 and in normal times, we produce here 1 million Boe per day or around 55% of our total production.
This production level was achieved through significant growth of around 6.5% a year, over the last 14 years in which we increased our share of African production and consolidated relationships with many important producing countries.
Today, we count our relationship standing several decades in North Africa and in Angola, Nigeria and of course Congo and at least an unparallel presence in the new oil producing countries in the continent. As a result of our long history of growth, today we are the leading international oil company in Africa.
We are the leading IOC in terms of production having more than doubled Africa (outcomes) in the past 15 years. Our current production in Africa is around 35% higher than that of our closest competitor. And we are the leading IOC in terms of geographical footprint with production operations in seven countries and exploration and development projects in many more.
Being the first IOC in Africa has a number of advantages in terms of scale, synergies and accessed projects with no breakeven. And our late leadership is set to continue for the next decade. That’s because of the significant growth opportunities we have on the continent. Our growth will come from major step backs in our legacy countries and from high potential exploration prospect in the new countries we have entered, Ghana, Togo, Mozambique, Gabon and the DFC.
Africa is also a key role in the development of our unconventional portfolio with initiatives in Nigeria and Tunisia and in South Africa. Meanwhile, we are working on the tough end here in Congo. You may be wondering why we had such a success in Africa over the last 40 years.
One may think that we are advantaged by being Italian with a smaller colonial past on the continent. And we think the real competitive advantage we had here is our approach to doing business. Our Eni model built over the last half a century give us a unique edge in securing access to resources.
Our model is made up of a number of differentiated factors or which the first is our core E&P expertise and technology. (Inaudible) as a number of distinctive benefits it can offer based on our competition along the whole of the oil and gas by the chain coupled with our commitment to look our social and economic development. Not all the lacks of our model are applied in all of the counties which we operate and in every country some are more important than others.
We now take you through some key examples of our model and its advantages. Looking in North Africa, the major differentiator in our dialogue with producing countries is our upstream, midstream integration. Among the majors we are the only one with a leading position in the European gas market, which we supplied by buying around 80 billion cubic meter of gas. Being big buyer of gas has been key in developing extreme opportunities in Algeria, Egypt and of course Libya.
Our integration along the oil and gas value chain is the base of our strong relationship with North Africa, which makes up more than a quarter of our gas supply portfolio and the third of our E&P global production.
Moving now to Sub-Saharan Africa other aspects of our model become significant in accordance with the need of the local population. One of the reasons most pricing issue is the lack of electricity. 600 million people almost two-thirds of the African population including many here in Congo have no access to any electricity at all. At the same time, Eni is fully committed in eliminating gas flaring. Eni tackles both this issue having being the first IOC to invest in power generation in Africa using gas previously flared. We implemented a major electricity generation project in Nigeria and in Congo and now we account for 20% of Nigeria power generation and 60% of Congo’s.
The success of our approach has caught the eye of other countries in the region and it’s supported any business development in Angola, Ghana, Togo and Mozambique where recent MOUs include potential power gen projects.
The third distinctive trade of our model is our double flag approach. We are an international company but in every country we are a local operator. This means a number of different things. Number one, it translates into a greater willingness to take onshore projects. Being a local company means also investing in local people. Over the last 10 years, we have not just grown the overall number of locals employed in our operations Sub-Saharan Africa but also invested in their training and development.
Today the proportion of local staffing managerial roles is almost double and we are committed to growing further. It is particularly appropriate then we should talk about the Eni approach here in Congo because Congo is one of the fullest examples of the model and I hope you will enjoy your site visit tomorrow.
I will now hand you over to Claudio for an update on our main E&P project.
Thank you Paolo, good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. I’m pleased to welcome you here in our office in (inaudible) and take this opportunity to give you a broad update on our strategy and projects.
One of the main aims of my presentation today will be to elaborate on the strength of our gross prospects, not just for the next four years, but also for the next decade and to give you some additional granularity on the future development opportunity of our exploration.
In our view, a sustainable value creation has to be underpinned by an efficient growth process, capital with strict risk management. We will deliver growth through the rapid and efficient development of our existing projects and the resources; and through penetration strategies (inaudible) not just from finding resources, but on finding resources that can be developed quickly and providing attractive returns.
For us, risk management starts from the quality and mix of resource base. From the beginning, our strategy has been oriented on conventional assets onshore and in conventional water, which are technically less demanding and more efficiently developed.
And secondly, to reduce risk and be more efficient, we have focused our presence in core areas, which means areas where we now understand from a geological standpoint, where we have technical and operational synergies and where we had consolidated relationship with local institutions.
Building on these two strategic drivers, additionally we control a new (inaudible) operational risk investing in new technology on people core competencies and by increasing operatorship. This approach enables us to target significant growth not just till 2014, but also for the next decade.
We confirm the target of production growth of over 3% a year on average till 2014 at $70 per barrel or 2% at $100 per barrel. We are also setting an average growth goal of around 2% a year between 2014 and 2021. It is based on further development stages of giant projects, new identified project from exploration success over the last two years and upside potential from promising explorations.
Let’s look at the project which we will provide growth in 2014 in more detail. In the next four years, we plan over 40 start ups. New production will be geographically diversified with major contribution from Africa, which accounts for over 40% of new production, OCV countries, which we will provide around the quarter. Russia and Central Asia and Venezuela, 60% of new production by 2014 will be oil and 85% will be from our fields onshore or unconventional water.
Many of the major start ups will come through in 2012 and 2013. This includes Block 15/06 in Angola, Perla and Junin-5 in Venezuela. The giant fields in Russia in Kashagan. So far this year, we have made good progress on all these corner stone projects, which we provide over 200,000 barrels per day of production by 2014. In particular, we have recently taken final investment decision for Samburgskoye and are on track on the sanction of Urengoskoye; Perla and the second hub of Block 15/06 before the end of this year.
Looking beyond 2014, the outstanding operational results achieved in the recent years will drive further growth. In the two years, 2009 and 2010, we discovered around 2 billion barrels of new resources with an extremely competitive unit exploration cost of $1.6 per barrel. It is worth remembering the huge success in Block 15/06 was more than 700 million barrels of reserves this quarter, with a success rate of nearly 90%. The Perla super-giant with almost 12 BCF of reserves, including a great area – in a great urban area.
In 2011, we added so far about 480 million barrel of resources, by drilling 38 wells, of which 99 had been successful – sorry, 29 had been successful and continuing so far the very low unit expiration cost recorded in the last two years. Among these, we are particularly excited by Skrugard discovery in the Barents Sea with the last estimate confirming about 250 barrel of recoverable oil reserves. Jangkrik North East discovery in Indonesia, where we discovered approximately for tcf of gas in place.
In Ghana, the recent Gye Nyame gas discovery confirmed the potential of the area, and open ups the possibility of significant development with Sankofa, discovered in 2009 and successfully a price in 2011. In Angola, with the recent gas (inaudible) discovery of [Lira] in the south inner sector of Block 15/06. The well has been successfully tested, showing its certain positivity. We are working through typical where these new resources into production, through project that will be sanctioned in 2013 and 2014.
On top of these, we’ve further phases of development of a visiting giant amongst which Junin, Perla, Zubair, Urengoskoye, Karachaganak, Kashagan as well as (inaudible) hub in the Block 15/06. As Paolo mentioned earlier, in Libya we have larger discovered the yet field undeveloped resources. For which, all ability started and long being penalized. The development of these additional projects moved roughly double current offshore gas production, further supporting loan impairment growth.
Growth opportunity beyond 2014, we provide about 1.2 million barrel of oil of new production today on which 85% from giant in longer plateau period.
The growth project in the mid and long-term are focused on six key region or hubs, which we provide about 45% of our production by 2013 and more than 50% by 2021. And now on detail for each of these hubs, starting with the Russia, our presence in the Yamal Peninsula has huge potential.
Our four licenses in five blocks contain overall 1.5 billion barrel of ATP 2P reserves. And we tend to reach a production plateau in 2019 of $200,000 per day for a period of roughly 10 years. We have recently (inaudible) a commercial agreement in which we’re strong for the sale of gas and we’ve never take four (indiscernible). Samburgskoye we leave the first field to be developed, we are already taking FID and we confirm the start up in 2010. CapEx per barrel is estimated at around $4.
Second field to go into production will be Yaro-Yakhinskoye, (inaudible) was submitted to the utilities last years, and production start ups is forcing in 2012 as well. Its first start up will be the Urengoskoye field. We plan to (inaudible) project in late 2011 and start up will be in 2014.
Two start up giants Severo and Yevo will start up by 2018. Another driver of long-term growth would be the Barents Sea, an important oil harbor with great potential in the oil. The existing value of project which we provided on 25,000 barrel per day production by 2013 is on track. Overall progress is that 22% with the first offshore campaign completed and all the (indiscernible) already installed.
The FVPSO is currently being lived in Korea and we expect to take the lever in summer 2013. We confirm the start up in late 2013. On top of that, we plan to fast track the development of the recent Skrugard discovery, where we are aiming for a startup in 2015, 2017. The two projects combine, we provided plateau of 70,000 to 80,000 barrel per day equity oil production (inaudible) Norway contribution to almost 200,000 barrel per day. The balancing also has exciting growth prospects. We had an additional 11 exploration blocks, which we are going to start drilling from the next year.
Let’s now turn to Indonesia, where we had made significant gas discoveries, which we have benefited from the existing infrastructure, including the Bontang LNG plant in strong gas market.
Overall, our conventional and unconventional assets in the area, we will provide around 100,000 barrel per day equity production at peak. This project in the area is the CBM field looking to get beneath our conventional Sangos field, where we estimate the resources of almost 13 Tcf.
To date, (inaudible) have been completed. And in March 2011, the [LBT] joint venture became the first consortium in the world to deliver CBM production to an LNG plant. We expect production to startup in 2013. In gross production; we exceeded 70,000 barrel per day around 2020. Meanwhile, Jangkrik discovery is even more significant that (inaudible) at first. We are successfully completed the drilling and testing of Jangkrik North East 1 and 2, finding the new gas accumulation for total resources, which have almost doubled from two to four Tcfs.
Turning to Venezuela. This will be a key growth area. The two giants, Junin-5 and Perla will contribute 45,000 barrel per day oil production by 2014, and 170,000 barrel per day by 2019. In total, which will last for the following 20 years.
In the first half of the year, we agreed all the details of the coming side development plan with (inaudible) including the possibility of bringing power productions to our start in 2012 with initial growth production of 10,000 barrel per day. We tested the reservoir and for the facilities to be ready for the first phase of production startup, which we confirm for late 2013.
Drilling will begin by the end of 2011; the first phase of production will peak at 75,000 barrels per day. The two huge developments required the drilling of more than 1,400 wells and the construction of an upgrader. Regarding Perla, at the beginning of 2011, we completed diffuser for both onshore and offshore. The APC contract will be awarded by December 2011 (inaudible) will be developed at an extremely competitive cost of $3.5 per barrel. We are penalizing the commercial agreement and we expect to sign the GSA and pay the SIB before year-end.
Kazakhstan is another major hub for Eni, it is in Karachaganak in Kashagan; we have over 1.1 billion barrels of equity (inaudible).
Finally, we’ll catch up on Sub-Saharan Africa, which is an extremely important harbor in which Roberto will take you through in more depth. The main drivers of production growths in the area will be deepwater development with peak production of around 180,000 barrels per day and LNG and power generation projects, which will enable us to monetize associated and non-associated gas.
Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the three key teams in this duration with onshore and offshore Pre-salt play. They are really prolific transform margin in Ghana and the tertiary plays in Eastern Africa. Overall CapEx in the region will be around $1.3 billion for the next four years.
The second thing is Arctic in particularly the Barents Sea where we will drill in 2011 to 2014 nine new wells for an investment of $230 million equity investment. The third team is there in the Pacific Basin where we have recently added three high potential blocks, two in Indonesia and the other in Australia in an effort to increase its exposure to this region we will be (inaudible) by CapEx over $650 million. Consistently with exploration strategy, all these three teams have clearly identified development options and benefit from synergies with existing operations.
Our growth over the next decade will also be supported by increased exposure to unconventional gas, building on the competencies and experience acquired in the joint venture with Quicksilver in the Barnett shale. We have built up a portfolio of promising prospects outside the U.S. In particular, we are focusing on areas where there are synergies with existing operations where infrastructure is already in place and where the gas market is strong or is growing.
A good example is North Africa where we are the leading producer and where domestic demand is growing exponentially. Here we have expanded our presence by signing the corporation agreement with Sonatrach in Algeria for shale gas and we are continuing to explore opportunities in Tunisia.
Meanwhile, in Europe, we are one of the largest players in gas; we are making good progress in Poland where we will drill the first well by year-end and Ukraine where we have signed MoUs with a state-owned company who started initiative in conventional and unconventional oil and gas.
The Far East is a key growth area for us in unconventional as well as conventional gas. In additional to the CBM project in Indonesia and Tight gas exploration in Pakistan, we have entered China with two MoUs, one with a CNPC/Petrochina, and the other with Sinopec. (Inaudible) shale gas resources in the county.
Over the next four years, we aim to invest at least €30 million for unconventional exploration and more than €500 million for development. Total unconventional resources amount to over 1 billion barrel.
E&P portfolio is not just attractive in terms of growth prospect. We are one of the (inaudible) with the lowest cost. We will see consistently crowded value chain, and over the next full year, we will continue to concentrate on efficiency. The exploration in the last few years, we are believer in one of the best unit cost of the industry and this is something we plan to maintain through our outstanding portfolio.
Meanwhile, the focus on unconventional assets and exposure in our core areas enable us to be winning the project at an average break-even price of only $45 per barrel. The (inaudible) per barrel, the E&P division is one of the best trained industry and our project pipeline will be enable us to grow it even far, reflect $70 per barrel scenario driven by scale benefit of a Giant project and increasing exposure to oil over the same period.
To sum up, entering into a period of accelerating growth, which would be sustainable for the next decade. To far busier, we had made good progress on all strategic goals and especially in term of exploration, we have discovered Giant field in some of the faster growing areas in the world with a substantial increase in the storage base.
We (inaudible) this progress in our major house, we benefit from cost and time synergies with existing operations. The outstanding exploration results coupled with focus on (sustained market to) sustain our long-term profitable loan growth.
I will now hand you over to Roberto for a closer look to our key pillar - one of our key pillar strategies.
Thank you, Claudio and good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. I’m here to give you an overview of our activities and prospects in the Sub-Saharan region. But before I do so, I wanted to give you a little context.
Sub-Saharan, Africa is a vast area populated by 850 million people with a demographic growth of over 2% a year. As mentioned earlier, the economic development of the area is hampered by energy poverty. Power generation is amongst the lowest in the world and the overall electrification rate is below 30%. Another issue is health, later on, you will appreciate the merit of our initiatives in this context.
Sub-Saharan, Africa is rich in natural resources, both oil and gas and minerals. (Inaudible) potential is considered very high due to the excellent profitability in deepwater, inland basins, gas exploration and unconventional.
And its presence in the area goes back to the early 60s and our activity here have grown over time and we play a pivotal role in Eni’s future.
We target Sub-Saharan production growth of 6% per annum in the next four years. And average growth of 2% per annum in the period of 2014, 2021. We will grow thanks to continuing developments of our activities in Angola, Nigeria and Congo, and further exploration potential in existing and new countries.
Physically, the addition of countries such as Ghana and Mozambique with their gas potential will contribute significantly to long-term growth.
Our production growth in Sub-Saharan, Africa is based on four main drivers, so let’s look at this more closely. The first one is the development and startups of the mostly operated deepwater project. The second is gas utilization capitalizing on Eni’s presence along the world of the gas value chain to monetize stranded gas and maximize the value of non-associated gas.
The third key driver of growth will be exploration as Claudio was saying, Sub-Saharan, Africa is one of the Eni’s main exploration teams. And we’ve had exciting opportunities in the most promising basins.
Lastly, our corporation model, which combines oil and gas development with social projects and provides a competitive advantage in obtaining assets to new resources.
Let’s start with deepwater project. Deep water has always been an area of excellence for Eni. We were the first company to start deepwater production in Nigeria.
Since then, our exploration success has resulted in a number of interesting project both producing and in development, and long-term perspectives are even brighter and it's well positioned as I said within the most promising basis in the region with the total resources estimated at around 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
Looking more closely at the next four years, we will raise production from deepwater activities from 130,000 barrels per day in 2010 to 180,000 barrels per day in 2014. Most of the output will be oil, and 46% of this production will be operated again in 2014 as compared to 25% in 2010.
Deepwater production will be 36% of total [earnings outside] Africa in 2014, up from the current 32%. Two projects will play a key role in our deepwater engagement. Block 15/06 in Angola and OPL 245. So let’s take a look at each in depth.
In Block 15/06, they are following a successful fast track exploration campaign, which ended 18 months earlier than contractually due. We are implementing two projects. Firstly, the West Hub project consisting of developing the Sangos, Ngoma and Cinguvu fields followed by the Etan and also around in this qualities, which increases the potential of the Hub up to more than 200 million barrels. FID was taken at the end of 2010 and the project will cost US$2.8 billion, [the startup we set] by 2013 with an expected thick production of 80,000 barrels per day.
On top of the West Hub, we planned to sanction the East Hub project by the end of 2011. We invented to develop the discoveries of Cabaca North and South East for a total of 200 million barrels through an FPSO with the capacity of 120,000 barrels per day and production startup expected by 2014. The full life cost in this case is forecasting the range of $3.4 billion.
Both the East and West Hubs will have a time to market of around five years from discoveries to production. Nigeria, we were assigned a 50% of participating interest and operatorship of one of the most important undeveloped deepwater blocks, OPL 245, we’ve almost 500 million barrels of already discovered reserve, our commitment is for a fast track development to bring the fields of Zabazaba and Etan production by 2015. The preliminary development scheme for season FPSO installation with 120,000 barrels per day of capacity, the drilling of 28 wells and the laying of a gas export sea land routes, the associated gas to Bonga LNG which will result in addition of revenues. Farther to the discovered reserves, the block has additional exploration upside. We intend to operate the already discovered field and investigate the unexplored structures.
Let’s now turn to the second driver of our growth, gas utilization. We at Eni have always consider the gas is an economic, industrial and social opportunity either coming from flaring down projects or development of non-associated gas. Currently 14 main gas utilization projects are in the Eni portfolio and we have planned investment in the rage of $5 billion for the next four years. These projects will total proved reserves of 1.3 billion barrels of equivalent and we contribute over 120,000 barrels per day of production by 2014. Particular important are the flaring down initiatives. Gas flaring is widely perceived as a major issue both for environmental and value adding purposes.
Eni has been highly proactive in promoting the flaring down. As an example, the Nigeria we flare today only 10% of onshore associated gas and by next year it will be lower to about 5%, the same applies to Congo whether we target onshore zero gas flaring by 2012. Finally, Angola, where we are participating in a major offshore gas flaring down through multiple projects.
A quick look now at our LNG business. First of all, why LNG? For producing countries LNG project an important for two main reasons, firstly increasing revenues through gas utilization and secondly creation of basic infrastructure to fuel domestic growth for instance the large LPG production capacity of the LNG plants greatly modernize the energy sources, which are largely based on wood and charcoal thus reducing deforestation.
For the IOCs the LNG allow their presence in the integrated value chain from producing well to the final end user market determine an efficient monetization of gas reserves from many fields.
Our presence in LNG in Sub-Saharan Africa dates back to 1989 with the participation in the Bonga LNG which production commenced in 1999 then our presence extends farther by joining the Angola LNG project in 2007 where production start this plant for February 2012. The same time progress is being made to reach FID for Brass LNG in Nigeria.
Last but not least, through our participation in the Angola gas project, we shall secure supply for a second [train] of Angola LNG.
Let's now turn to power generation, which is an excellent opportunity to support the economic and social development of the host countries. Our first power project was Okpai in Nigeria, a 480 megawatt plant, which was the first double cycle plant in Africa. It was followed by a gas supply contract to the Rivers State government power plant. Both plants are now fully operational, and the Okpai plant has been acknowledged as the most reliable power plant in Nigeria with a percentage of availability of 99.8%.
In Congo, Eni started generating gas fuel power in 2002 with the 50 megawatt Centrale Electrique de Djeno and in March 2010, we started producing electricity from the 300 megawatt Centrale Electrique du Congo.
In Angola, as part of the 2008 framework agreement signed with Sonangol, we are discussing the construction of a 450 megawatt gas power plant in the area around it. In total, Eni in the Sub-Saharan region has installed a nominal capacity of 1 gigawatt, reaching over 80 million people. We intend to grow further in the sector as our capabilities and experiences are valuable to new countries which we are entering.
I will now start to exploration which we expect to drive Sub-Saharan production growth in the longer term. Eni is active in three prolifically proven petroleum plays in Sub-Saharan, Africa. The pre-salt play is aiming to replicate the Brazilian Santos Basin play. Our evaluation to-date provides us with the confidence that significant volumes exist along the West African coast up to the deepwater acreage such as Block 35 in Angola.
Moreover, we are amongst the few companies exploring these plays onshore. Secondly, the Transform Margin plays, whose importance is testified by the success of Sankofa,
Gye Nyame campaigns in Ghana and which extends the Jubilee trend. We plan to explore this trend even farther into our Togo acreage.
Finally, the tertiary play is proven through our acreage in Nigeria and Angola 15/06 and this year we shall investigate the potential of the significant hydrocarbon resources in deepwater Mozambique Block 4.
Looking at the plays in more detail, the pre-salt play along West Africa is now more easily identified using new technology imaging to understand the geology under the base of a fixed salt layer shown here in red. Prospective areas are where sediments supply over basin supply. The recently assigned Block 35, in Angola we plan to acquire in 2012 at least 2700 square kilometers of three new segments and then, a drilling campaign will follow in 2013. The Transform margin play relates to a basin formed during the preparation of South America from Africa, setting up a unique basin between elongated altered zones. In this basin, we have obtained over the last three years a good acreage position and already made two discoveries in Ghana whose development is under study and discussion with (inaudible).
Looking at the tertiary plays; we have been successful along the West Africa coast and more recently in Angola, Block 15/06. We are now assessing the similar plays along the East African coast and as I said, Block 4, Mozambique. As you know, the industry has had significant success in this play, we have had seven recent discoveries out of nine drilled wells, the largest of which is directly adjacent to the west boundary of our Block 4.
We are drilling at the moment the first of the two wells to be completed this year and two more wells are planned next year. Clearly, a discovery would open a new front for us in East Africa. In terms of development options, we are thinking about an LNG plant to export gas especially to Far East while part of the gas volumes would be made available for their domestic market.
Our fourth growth driver is the Eni Cooperation model, a distinctive approach which gives us a significant advantage in securing access to resources. As we said earlier, all the activities we carry out and the all the activities we are talking about today are part of our model of cooperation with the host countries.
Operating with the responsibility while investing in the country’s future represents the dual flag approach; one flag is flag of the country, the other shows the six legged dog. These legs to move in a decisive way towards a partnership around share business plans, development of infrastructure, supportive national (inaudible) Excellency through education, genuine commitment to social responsibility and an enlarged vision beyond national borders through international partnerships. All this enables us to work on all available energy resources making sustainable development a distinctive element for common value creation.
As an example of this integrated approach and how it embraces our core activity, I want to give you a quick overview of what we are doing in M’Boundi. When Eni was acquiring M’Boundi back in 2007, the field was being developed as a traditional field with all the gas basin get most feed and with limited pressure maintenance through fresh water injection since then Eni has worked to transform (inaudible) field into the main energy hub of the country. And this has been achieved through a number of steps, the development and connection of nearby [fertilizable] field implementation of a sea water injection through the contraction of a 55 kilometer pipeline from the coast that preserving the fresh natural, fresh water natural resources.
Implementation of a large scale gas development plan through a 16 inch gas line to the newly built power station in (inaudible) the electricity that currently feeding the recently revamped national network. This project have already allowed for a dramatic decrease of the flare gas while the zero flaring target will be reached by 2012. And with the implementation of the gas or injection project I think it won’t be feared.
Future gas will come from the Marine XII offshore project. Further volumes are linked to the connection to the Coraf refinery into the potash mining industries. Finally, the future gas will also feed a new LPG plant to produce [booting] for domestic consumption in the tough end plant. All these is tightly linked to a comprehensive plan of intervention in the surrounding area so as to build a constructive relationship with local communities, hope you see our presence as an opportunity to improve their lives.
A clear example of we need experts to improve a relationship with the local community is represented by mainly social project develop a long side our industrial operations. The main ideas of an intervention concern health, infrastructure construction and/or refurbishment, agriculture (inaudible) and capacity building and ensure safely constant water and the electricity supply.
For example in Nigeria we develop two agriculture projects impacting 500,000 people. In the (inaudible) wells our vaccination plants in Congo and Angola in both 500,000 in children. So here in Congo lastly we have also launch and integrated project with the Colombia University expanding the sectors as I said of agriculture, health, eduction sector which has been instrumental establishing a positive relationship we’ve host communities and which you will be better be able to appreciate tomorrow during the site of Egypt. Eni success in West Africa has been built over several decade leveraging on our recognize leadership as an efficient operator.
Our focus on combinational large side project allow us to benefit from significant economical scale and operational synergies. Meanwhile, the deployment of our technologies continuous operational improvement and the production optimization effort allow us to contain operating costs, while our integrated model give us the ability to monetize low-cost stranded gas resources. As a consequence, projected solid cash flows from our African operation, which will benefit from significant leverage oil price outside.
Thank you for you attention and I will now hand over to Alessandro, who will give you an update of Eni’s financials.
Thank you, Roberto, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. All of the activities in project illustrated this afternoon will contribute to the growth of our cash flows over the next years, which will be mainly driven by the increase in E&P production. Over the next four years period, the cash flow generated by our operation will be more than sufficient to fund billions and the capital expenditure program, which is focused on our high value upstream project pipeline. E&P development activities account for the lion's share of Eni’s CapEx.
Our development project are characterized by two trades, (a lot) majority of them are conventional in nature, three quarters of development CapEx are related to onshore and shallow water fields which have a lower risk profile and usually lower development and operating cost of deepwater or unconventional activities. Furthermore, almost half of our development CapEx are related to VSAs, which guaranteed the recovery of investments made, while still being leveraged to potential oil price upside as well as financing our high return CapEx plan, our cash flow growth over the plan period will progressively strengthen our balance sheet, maintaining the strong balance sheet is one of our key priorities as we want to be able to access the market even in difficult trading condition as such the ones the euro zone s experiencing now.
One of the strengths of our balance sheet is that our consolidated net debt of €26 billion is associated with the low risk activities, around approximately €11 billion (inaudible), which face a stable in solid cash flow that covers its investment needs, a further €3.4 billion is attributable to Saipem whose operations will positively contribute to the group’s financial position in the coming years.
Looking at the full year 2011, we have already completed disposal for almost €1.7 billion, combined with the effect of higher oil prices, which offset the impact of the Libyan crisis on our results. It has enabled us to confirm year-end net debt-to-equity ratio below the 0.47 posted at the end of last year.
Looking further ahead to the next four years, our target remains to achieve a debt-to-equity ratio below 40% without considering any major disposal. Should Galp disposal be finalized, the benefit of this transaction will allow our leverage to be in the range of 9 percentage points.
In this time of market turbulence, we can rely on our financial debt, which is well diversified by social funding and is characterized by an optimal profile in terms of both composition and ratio. Over 80% of our gross debt is mid long-term with an average maturity of more than five years.
In the last few days, we have successfully placed around €1.3 billion retail bond with a six-year maturity, which confirms Eni as one of the most (inaudible) in the bond market and the certainly extends the profile of our funding.
Indeed, the proceeds of this bond will replace short-term borrowings, as no bonds are due this year and long-term bad debt by year-end 2011 is just €300 million.
Thank you for your attention and I will now hand you over to Paolo for his closing remarks.
Well, thanks (inaudible). Before answering your questions, I would like to take a final moment to enclose what I hope you will take away from this update and you will (inaudible) to our operations here in the Republic of Congo.
First, I hope that you will get a sense of how we work. Our values and our corporate culture. The dual flag approach runs deep within Eni and as it (inaudible) to the formation of the company.
Secondly, this approach is the basis of our success and prospects in Africa. A continent which forms the core of Eni’s position in the global energy industry and is a key pillar of our sustainable upstream growth strategy.
Our project pipeline and the exciting new discoveries were made, mean we are now in a great position to deliver growth at the top-end of our industry, not just for the next four years, but for the next decade. And third, we’re backing our growth agenda with a robust a financial platform.
Growing production will drive cash flow generation, which will strengthen our balance sheet financial, our value creating CapEx plan and find returns to shareholder in accordance with our confirmed dividend policy. Eni with our asset mix, our technical skills, and our distinctive operating philosophy, is uniquely placed to prosper and we hope that this would become clear to view during this period.
Let me now hand you over to you of for questions. (Inaudible), you may take the lead question.
Hi, good afternoon gentlemen. A couple of questions. The first one is your CapEx seem to be based on (inaudible) oil, the current oil consumptions versus your – cash flow pointing to 70 barrels to borrow. So the difference there is that - was with respect been your CapEx, assumption you know how much repeatedly you’re having in the coming years on the CapEx and the second question is on the area for on the almost on the – you are talking about 10 to 20 bcf of gas in place. But I think the gas on the other side of the block are talking about 10 to – well actually one - 10 bcf or recoverable gas. So how do you right this?
Extremely can you clarify a little bit more the first question?
More regular how much the (Inaudible) having your CapEx now until the 2014?
Well, Alessandro will answer the first one and may be (Inaudible)
I want a CapEx plan, both for 2012 and for the subsequent year is based predominantly on the project, which are already ongoing. But we have a certain level of a flexibility in our CapEx plan. However, I don’t believe that it will be necessary to rely on this flexibility, because there is very important cash flow that we have been granted during 2011, and the cash flow that will be generated before year-end. I am really confident that we will be able to catch the disposal that we have already finalized and we’ll be able to catch within the year-end, we will provide those funds which cannot support entirely our plan even in the worst market environment. So I – also into your question, we have some flexibility, but we are counting that it will not be necessary to rely on such [flexibility].
Block four in order to (inaudible) so the estimation figure that you are talking about, estimation days on the structure and seismic and these gas in case.
You started off the call talking about the structure of the business and the sense of both Galp and Snam business. Clearly the environment macro environment is not particularly conducive to selling assets at the moment, but also it’s quite a good opportunity to buy assets and things as destructed they are. Could you comment a little bit on the sort of your view of the wide and macro and whether or not (inaudible) for you to accelerate potential restructuring plans always sort of a wait and see?
We are speaking specifically about Galp and about Snam Rete Gas then we could speak more generally you have seen that we have made a few asset acquisition lately including Edwin Franklin in the U.K. and block two, four, five in Nigeria two acquisitions of assets which we have made exactly to exploit the right opportunity for bag. But moving to Snam Rete Gas and to Galp, Snam Rete Gas we have said many times we are not in a hurry of doing anything. I agree Snam Rete Gas is not a business which is synergic with the rest of our businesses. That’s true. But these are very complex business to dispose of for several reasons including the fact that we are not completely with free hands we need to have a degree of the Italian government, this degree of the Italian government will happen only if the government is satisfied with the end result of any potential disposure of this business. We are very worried about making something, which is shareholder friendly both for the shareholders of Eni and for the shareholders of Snam Rete Gas. So it is a very complex operation to be made. We were not setting any date for the end of the story, simply, because, the old story is not completing our hands and we are more interested about doing something, finally they’re doing something quick, if I may say so.
On top of that, you know, this year price is not moving us, it’s giving us a return of 8%, which is an excess of our whack, so frankly, we don’t feel obliged to something very quickly. Now Galp is a different story, of course when we acquired the 34% of Galp, the total idea we had was not [to resell it], we are quite the opposite, our idea was, we would like to be in this company because it is a small Eni and we would like to integrate this company with our business and to make it part of our company before the idea of the very beginning.
Then time has passed, it became quite evident to us that this idea of integrating the company with our activity was becoming difficult, difficult to implement. At the same time the Brazilian operations of Galp, which represent probably 80% of the value of Galp, they do not have any role in being the operator, and we feel that we don’t want to be just partners even in a daily promising area such as Brazil.
So we have taken the decision that if we can find an appropriate buyer, an appropriate price we have said. Now of course from now to 2014 more exactly to March 2014, every buyer in practical to be agreed by Mr. Amorim and also by the Portuguese government. So again difficult times for selling assets, difficult times for selling Portuguese asset, which also plays a role, difficult time for complex operations. Again I had to tell you, we are quite optimistic about this deal, but probably less optimistic that we were a couple of years ago or 18 months ago.
Amorim will tell you more if you want because he is running the negotiation.
I have not been toward the power because you have already mentioned they're critical owing to our business story. Of course as already stated by Paolo during the presentation we had interested parties, but for sure what’s happened in almost in the Euro zone has say generated more prudence in the interested parties. They are examining more in detail, but I can confirm that there are still very interested parties. I don’t want to set up any deadline of the closing of the negotiation or the discussion, but for sure there are interested parties even in the so harsh environment.
Charles Hall – Newton Investment Management
It's Charles Hall from Newton Investment Management. Thank you very much for the visibility going now further out 10 years. And you can see the various components of the growth engine. It is quite difficult to understand with the very substantial growth engine segments what’s happening to the rest of the portfolios. Could you just talk a little bit perhaps about the assumptions you’ve got for decline in the rest of the portfolio? I mean you got of lot of oil production coming on faster.
Particularly on the Congo, it's quite interesting just to understand really where you can take the recovery factor there, because its not quite clear to me what you are assuming with the underlying portfolio in order to – and I think they're making more than 2% growth here. I am just trying to tease out the various parameters.
And the other piece that looks perhaps a little conservative to me is because it’s [down], the extensions for kind of tracking outside of three appears good enough growth. It's very difficult to see where further phases of Kashagan – second phase of Kashagan kicks in? So, quite a few questions.
I think that all what I said and what I showed you is that – I'll tell you immediately that the growth – want to talk about Kashagan. I did an important additional phase for Kashagan. It just keeps at the end of the period, the concession phase, so just the difference between the 370,000 barrels per day that we reached the experimental stage in the Galp to reach 460,000 barrels a day that we can reach with that comparison and that is at the end. So, it’s quite conservative. That is true. For Kashagan, there is phase III, because phase III, I think that, I’m so sorry, in Kashagan there is phase III with two to three years of shift. In phase III, I’m quite not sure in terms of starting and restarting to reduce cost and we are quite sure as I said that after rationalization of this negotiation we can start and go ahead with the phase III.
You talked about Congo, and you talk about - so what we think? What we think is that we can increase the production in Congo. The recovery factor is quite diversified, because we are in different kinds of fields. And also, in the mature fields, we have a layer with a very low recovery factor that we can – from which we can increase the production with a new technique.
We are tomorrow – during the visit can spend (inaudible) oil fields. There are still lots of potential internal EOR. So, the average rate, the average recovery factor of a good field is about 25%, 28%, so it’s still something that we can improve. But there are some layers, some horizons, where we can apply EOR with a recovery factor that is less than 10% with still 400 or 700 oil – I’m talking about what are in place, it is still there to be recovered.
So, I think that is – so we have additional potential, but we did not [complete] in this 2% for the long-term. So, I agree with you that that it is quite conservative, but it is still quite conservative. That is a quite big contingency, we didn’t stretch all the different potentials, also because you see – we have more (inaudible) potentiality, there are some fields where we have to expand (inaudible) so that we are productive and we prefer to be conservative. I agreed with you that we can get a better result.
So, when you share (inaudible) with the – what you have built in, in terms of the expectation of the return on the exploration program and also the underlying decline rates that you’ve got within the portfolio?
Now, in terms of the intelligence, our internal operation we are quite pleased, in the last three years I think that exploration worked very well and as I told you, we put an special explore team to find oil that we can put in production and Angola is clear example of (inaudible) and we start with exploration with a sensitivity, I mean, we have already development option. And so, I think that really we can increase, just to give you an example, if I remember well, in the last three years, 50% of the resources, the resources that we have found, so it is 50% we have time to market that is around four years.
In the previous three years, just 35% of the resources that we have found had a time to market of four years. So we are improving the amount of resource. So, we didn’t capture all the exploration potential in these long-term. Also from the exploration side is a conservative long-term reduction.
Jon Rigby – UBS
I’m so sorry. This is Jon Rigby from UBS. I have two questions, I think one for Claudio and one for Paolo, if that is possible. Claudio just to go back on the exploration point, I assume that within the next three to four years, you would be spending exploration money on things that you don’t - you are not really thinking about for the moment. So, can you just confirm that with your focus on cycle time and so on, is that potentially by 2018, ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, if there could be stuff coming up in the production portfolio that really you are not even thinking about that, just to kind of gauge how conservative that ten-year outlook is?
And then, for Paolo; it is fairly clear and I think to the frustration of the loss oil investors that your stock over the last three to six months has been impacted by the Italian sovereign crisis. I wonder whether if you could just take an opportunity to just survey where actually the sovereign issues impact any - from a practical purpose and to what degree you think those problems are probably overexaggerating the context of your stock? Thanks.
Installation, especially we (inaudible) different targets so that we know that maybe we don’t yet acquire, but you know we have a clear target in (inaudible) clear target in West Africa you know that we are the only one that developing the onshore pre-salt oil and we are increasing because we want to do that, but we are increasing our asset in that area and maybe in the future in North America. And we are working, as I said before to the enterprise exploration whether the existing options internal development and we are different and it’s not inside this growth playing that is for the most of the cases for sure we were going to increase. And I am going to also providing assets because (inaudible) the decline rate that applied on this – it’s still between 3% and 4%.
Okay, now let me first say that of course I watch closely our total shareholder return for the four month as compared to what we consider our peer group. So far we have been performing in the region of what has been performing to European competitors BP and Total and worse than the American essentially.
Now, of course, I’m not pleased with the performance, but so in total considering the Libyan situation because being heating us more than anybody (inaudible) I always thought that we were performing reasonably, no not reasonably, not too badly, not consideringly. Now to appreciate out of our performance, how much is Libya, how much is Sovereign Italian debt, only it’s fairly difficult, you know distance is always quite difficult to understand what is what.
In total, as of yesterday, our total shareholder return yesterday was better than BP and better than Total, as I said we’re not too bad, not too bad, of course to see our share price have been paying a dividend of one, more than 1 euro (inaudible) but probably my colleagues will see the same above their share price, I imagine, I imagine. So it is the whole industry, which is suffering probably much considering that our business is doing fine.
Jon Rigby – UBS
Just a follow up I just want to – whether – from your position whether you could and if we assure or comments on actually the practical issues in terms of the problems that the state is having and how that actually impacts or doesn’t impact the company?
No, look the only impact we had is a very much and indirect impact that we had through this new tax called Robin tax on Snam Rete Gas which we own 52%. In fact if they were remember in terms of net, net profit, the heat on Snam Rete Gases will be in 21150 million euros, so for us 75 million euros of potential dividend – or excuse me, consolidated 150 million euros. So fairly small numbers of the value of course we don’t like it, but it is a relatively small number for us.
Hello, thanks for the presentation. This is (inaudible) from Citi. First of all, a question on Russia, it seems like it’s becoming a big and bigger positive portfolio. Can you please comment on the economics of those projects so that especially given that – things have (inaudible) internal pressure on the company, how do they compare to global portfolio overall, and how things are looking in general? And the second question, in Iraq or Zubair, lots of companies are commenting on problems with (inaudible) production. In Zubair in Iraq is – are you maintaining your guidelines (inaudible) I think you are going to face the rate as well. Thank you.
Let me state something about Russia then I may leave Claudio to give you some more details about Zubair. Now on Russia mainly give you the elements of all the whole thing. First of all, you may remember that we paid our reserves $0.60 barrel. Now $0.60 of barrel is not a big price which we negotiated in 2007 and then the CapEx we are going to make develop those barrels at around I think you gave it a number before $3 per barrel – $3.5 per barrel. Now, so this is – our cost of production including the initial cost plus the development cost, of course we have 3.5, am I correct?
Yeah, 4, 4…
Around 4, okay, so the total cost is fairly limited. Now what do we produce (inaudible) we have an international price so no problem whatsoever. As far as the gas is concern. We sell the gas, Gazprom and their average selling price – their average selling price is the compounded some of what they said export, more or less one fourth of the gas they produced and what they said domestically, the other three-fourth. In total, now making all of these reasoning, this project is in the line with the IRR we’ve on all our projects in the company.
Then – so (inaudible) talked about that during this presentation. So we didn’t put in any our strategic caps because first of all, just to talk about the future, they – we consider as a group of feel that can be leader production about 150,000 barrels a day and 200,000 barrels a day in a constant rate. And today after the – through development, can we reach a peak of our equity production of about 110,000 barrels a day and once close to – keep in that range between 14,000 barrels a day and 15,000 barrels a day. There is nothing this strange at the moment.
Talking about peripheral amount for this year, kind of from an operational point of view, is not very well (inaudible). The only issue that you know, that is practically a period we have to spend to recover cost and increase your agency production and already that been that we – I give you a figure very clear that there, we had a gross margin, overall gross margin of $3 billion and we spend $700 million.
So that means, we are not in the position to deliver again the equity production, because we are not able to spend all the money that we’re talking. That’s why, because that – we are in a process of learning and not just kind of a huge (inaudible) is learning and we’re in a position phase. So the brokerage fee and the time to market for avoiding a contract, it’s not really what is weakening the contracts in the service contrary sign.
I think that in the future, we are positive, we can improve but that demand is in brokerage fee and learning process for everybody. But the integration in the SSC Company with the direct people and the operations are going very well. Security, I (inaudible) more than 200 people in the camp. So, we have a new camp there and we believed the two, three months we are – work harder, we are definitely making a lot of lines as we are working obviously from that point of view. The budget due today (inaudible) with internal production.
(Inaudible) I have a question to follow up on John’s question of the European crisis. One is more like a financial one. And other company and other sector that’s directly from (inaudible) we got credit balance, so I want to make sure that you have no credit balance in your treasury. And just as information, do you think that other companies in sector there pay by your (inaudible) and the accountant has to do some provision?
A follow up is more on the demand side and for instance in – for your gas business before your end don't you think – because my understanding that (inaudible) for instance is decreasing since the beginning of the year. Stock of gas are high, higher than the last year, and (inaudible) decreasing and so– do you expect before your end a decrease of gas stock, and as a consequence you have – is going to have a new part on your gas sales.
And the other part of the question for next year, how do you achieve the gas demand and evolution in your business plans? Do you think that the – what type of assumptions you would take in terms of volume gas demand for next year and for market share gains? And do you think that the consequence (inaudible) is the industry part of the business is decreasing next year? There is a risk that the minimal level of gas take from Russia is going to be higher and as a consequence do we need to forecast a cash outflow?
And the last question should be on Indonesia. Have any – have a look on your slide that you expect a decrease of LNG cargo – LNG production in Malaysia by 2013. One of your parent peers is doing – is saying – on this analyst day a week ago and is seeing the same trend, like Indonesia production of LNG is going to decrease in this time of field and if I had a look to the Asian basin, Australia will not be clubbed before deducing that it was going to – the Asian LNG markets will be buoyant in 2014.
Well, on the first question, I don't think I need the assistance of (inaudible). Now on the gas, you may not operate around gas. Now of course – but first of all I would like to reassure you stocks are very high today, as they should be because we are entering into the winter season. Always stocks winter and everywhere in the – in Europe at the end of September, beginning on October are at maximum. The moth you can stop there. So nothing really commercial is all around the winter season and summer season.
Lastly, what will happen would be stocks, will you use the stock or not, this would depend on the weather. In cold winters, yes, we use almost all the stock in Italy comments where in warm winter this does not happen. Because of consumption of gas in the first part of the year in Italy has been better than last year, more than last year. And generally speaking in Europe, now of course if we foresee a decline in industrial consumption for the future, then consumption might not increase as we expect. Now, as far as take or pay, you’ve mentioned take or pay in all these kinds of things, the clause its which regulate take or pay, part of the renegotiation we are doing now. So it is a piece of our negotiation.
Adjust for – because maybe not everyone of you understand exactly what the take or pay is, now because or not it is very much a specific issues and normally, we don’t encounter in the oil industry. The first company we paid was in 2009 as more amount the company maybe have another number, €300 million. If we were to sell the gas we prepaid in 2009 we will be making a big profit.
Let me try to explain to you, when you pay because you didn’t think, which you didn’t take your pay, now what do you pay? You pay in anticipation a small amount of the gas you didn’t take like 30%, the gas you didn’t take and you will be surprised, which was the price of 2009, okay? So if you were to sell that gas today, we could make a quite big profit – now, because people have in mind, take or pay equal bad. No, take or pay is simply buying today something you don’t use today, which you have 25 years time (inaudible) to use and therefore if you forecasted in 2012 the gas price will be double than it is today, the corporate is a positive, not a negative not – just to give you this kind of new look – not to say that they like the take or pay. In that sense is not necessarily a disaster.
Then I think I asked about the gas. Now of course, let me give you just an element for us. For us, Libya is just really important because of the three big contract – we have four big contract; Norway, Libya, Algeria and Russia was the only one we had already negotiated in August last year. So we negotiated the contract, so it was a contract more, let’s say grows up to the current prices – to the current spot prices and it was interrupted. So every month in which we can have this cash flowing again is a positive. We said that we are (inaudible) Algeria, Russia. We are not issuing a statement. We need some more time.
In total all our strategy is to move – this contrast to be more coherent in the scenarios spot prices in Europe in the next two to three years. For Indonesia…
I can answer.
No, no, energy you need on – again, in the Far East demand is extremely strong, prices are vey high, much higher than spot prices in Europe, four times price in the U.S which is…
We are buying more stock.
Okay and we do not see demand picking up very soon. Demand will continue to grow in the Far East. Now of course, you know that we are involved in shale gas in China. If China will enter into the (inaudible) gas, something might change, but this is not for tomorrow, it would take a few years.
Hi it’s [Keith Ann] from (inaudible). Three questions actually, its actually just concern with LNG. You talked – couple of potential areas where you may – start up new projects Ghana and it potentially made them beat. I was just wondering what are the next steps in terms of Ghana before you can make an FID, do you enough lease to offer it? And then it’s quite noticeable that where many of your projects, you don’t have a huge stage. I was just wondering whether you are comfortable being the operator and having such a large statement and LNG project.
The second question probably for Paolo, but it’s following up on, so what have discussed already around the sobering crisis. I guess it’s noticeable in someway that you know Eni does have a high interest or ownership from the government. I was wondering Paolo, I mean is that helpful, unhelpful and then, I was just wondering what all the restrictions there are on the government selling down the stake?
(inaudible) said something about the LNG in general, just for the prospects we have found or I – we find something – we have a weak stake in operating, no we don’t have this one stake because in more than – we have 70% of the operators are still in Ghana 50% and the operators, going to Ghana. Yes what we have found until now is enough for (inaudible) LNG. So we’re considering in that for a (inaudible) LNG about 2.5 to 2.4, 2.5 Bcf. That is what we consider, we already, Shell I think is at the edge and any related projects and working on LNG for Australia, Indonesia and the Gulf of Guinea. So, in Ghana, for considering the resources, we said that we have found, we have enough gas to develop (inaudible) LNG well about 2 million ton (inaudible) and also delivering gas to the domestics because one of the main target for the Ghana government is to built a power plant. And these two main project – to fuel this power plant and one is a risky one in production, we believe that with the associates [out] and they really started the first stage in the Ghana government and the second one is out as well.
Sorry, just to follow up though, would you be happy to develop those types of high interest?
On the sovereign risk, here two answers, first of all I never heard any political men in Italy proposing to sell down the state or the government as I said – then it might change tomorrow, but so far neither the government, not in the apposition, anyone has being rapidly proposing this.
And the second answer, I had to tell you that maybe I got used to it, but frankly I don’t notice any difference, I’ve been running a public company for – by the way British public company for more than six years. Is there anything different? No, I don’t feel any difference at all, any difference at all. The government of course come in the shareholder meeting, and so far has been appointing it’s directors out of nine, I think I say so far as I’m not sure next time this would happen, because shareholder show up now. In the last shareholder meeting, we had more than 20% shareholders, guys like you showing up, because since you don’t have any more to deposit the shares, then people show up, so this might be the case next time, it might be – of course we don’t know. But I’ve to tell you I could seen all these fairly development because after the shareholder meeting and at least the government of course overall will become a company like any public company’s and we don’t hear from them anymore.
Oswald Clint – Sanford Bernstein
Hi, Oswald Clint, Sanford Bernstein. Just back on the subsalt exploration, that’s a big focus of today. I just want to know, are you doing anything different at things were, how are you preparing for subsalt exploration, do you have an experience joining some – are there any involvement in the Brazil successes given that you wanted to try here in Sub-Saharan Africa, it’s clear that obviously everybody can make this successful much bigger company’s has been unsuccessful. And also went to Norway, I noticed different profiles for Goliat and Skrugard, Skrugard seems to have a much more stable production plan as Skrugard versus Goliat; Goliat seems to fall off quite quickly, is anything there with the development plan or the reservoir that’s which you know about. Thank you.
Thank you. First, on pre-salt, it comes down to pre-salt. We studied the pre-salt in Angola 25, it went very, very well because all the blocks here is pre-salt, so that is – we have some experience. The Block 10 in Congo is pre-salt and what we are doing differently that we are [forming] the pre-salt horizon onshore, that is the main difference. We have notice on Block - like Block 35 that we got a few months ago in Angola, but we are really focused on the onshore West Africa pre-salt for that region.
We bought stake in North Cabinda, we are analyzing Cabinda Central, we are in – as you see, we are in Congo producing annual exploration and we acquire four blocks in the run with this strategy. Strategy that comes from original study, it comes from a model that we set up some years ago and we are following. In M’Boundi, since we acquired M’Boundi with this kind of model we passed from – I am talking about volume plays of 1.3 something billion to 1.9 billion. So, we discovered in the last – starting from 2007 more or less 400 million of Angolan plays additionally on the pre-salt.
I don’t know if we are doing something different from a technical point of view, we are doing something different from onshore I am sure. We are solidly onshore. So, we are getting a specific experience in this area.
I am sorry, so Goliat has improved revenues as they are priced and has been starting, and we started in areas that are already discovered, but I think the statistics on this period on Goliat in terms of future production is there, more than previous. I hope that Goliat would be better for sure. What I know from – and until you know all the good fields have different stages of development and we are there - E&P uncertainties, because we developed something that is 4000 or 6000 meters underground and you know that we never add just one phase.
So I hope that developing Angola, this is a figure – this kind of reservoir that – as they are not very strong in energy, so that is really a natural application phase. I think that we can find additional possible mechanisms to increase the recovery factor.
Well, could you clarify (inaudible) IR department, and if any questions from the call, you may want to start registering now. We will take one more from the floor, as you do.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Q&A session for the call is open. (Operator Instructions) No question at the moment.
It's (inaudible) from Barclays Capital. Three questions if I may. The first is just on the outstream. You’re much more focused now on the unconventional part of the portfolio. A lot of gas within that. I was just wondering, the main oil asset seems to be here in Congo, whether that’s a large enough exposure to oil and whether you might be looking to expand that elsewhere globally within Venezuela as well, but whether that’s enough to [see].
And the second part was on the gas and power, was just a clarification. Sounds like the negotiations with Russia seem to be delayed slightly. I just want to double check that the benefits of the restating, even it does go into next year will stand in place and that you will get a benefit from that going forward?
Okay. Okay. Unconventional, just a while, because I was talking so that – we feel it’s not unconventional – it’s (inaudible) but absolutely not unconventional, so – and we have a lot of [voice there]. You know, gas and conventional, like gas and conventional, oil and conventional, we had an unconventional approach. So we even want to go to Canada, we even want to go to the States, acquire a huge amount of unconventional gas just to learn, and the goal as I said during the presentation, in a country on an area where we have synergies where we would market and we can grow and we have less competition and we can grow rapidly.
For oil, we have just Congo, because Congo is, like Roberto said, a very good opportunity in terms of oil and that is a good – very good oil. The gas – because for the future radiant, we have to use a lot of gas and in other country you have to buy gas. In this case is a clear gas that we use so it’s going to reduce drastically the cost. And if you look at the marginal cost for example in Canada, marginal cost for heavy oil tar sands goes from $80 to $100 per barrel. Our marginal cost (inaudible) between 50 to 60, but we are really (inaudible) and create a big advantage. We use our area and we have all the facilities in kind of (inaudible) but we try really to build on what we have and that is a different approach. I think that tomorrow we are going to visit the area where we plan to develop in the future these tar sands field. That is how we are moving (inaudible) the East Coast and we try to be more efficient and then more time-to-market, because we have already the facilities and know our drilling.
On gas, I would not say that our negotiation with Gazprom has been delayed; I would say it is beyond negotiation. On the other hand, you might be aware that they are going into arbitration with (inaudible) Turkey. Now, of course, the arbitration is always a possibility, I can see that that is a possibility that every one to try to avoid and therefore we negotiate. We are negotiating in good terms and I think we are not pessimistic about the outcome of the negotiation. Of course, Eni’s negotiation with Gazprom, we will be fixing a price from the 1st of January of . As Eni’s negotiation with Sonatrach, we will fix a price on the 1st of April , so it will be retroactive.
Simon Hawkins – MF Global
This is Simon Hawkins from MF Global. I was going to ask in fact that question on gas (inaudible). Just a follow-up on that, if it worked to get into (inaudible) what sort of timing would we be looking at? Results have been just really, really rough, I know it is a (inaudible). And the second question, just on the social investment, and I get that’s particular relevant here in Africa. How do you decide where to draw the line in allocating capital position investment and how does that play into [some] view of maybe the power sort of screening criteria especially given the healthy returns you get at a $100 oil.
On the first point, luckily we don’t have much experience of arbitration of getting cash from neither us nor anybody else. We are into really a – an exploratory target. Arbitration rates may be in Sweden, arbiters normally know nothing about the business of gas, so they are moving into very legal kind of issues now, and the best part because I asked the same question to you, the best forecast I ever did was a couple of years. Now what they don’t like apart from the fact that in two years, you know god only knows what will happen, but then for two years you are sending the gas which you don’t know the price. So it’s really some thing we don’t want to do frankly. And that’s the reason why I will do my best to the end the negotiation positively. On Algeria, we are in good shape we think I hope to be able to say that we are in good shape we are actually in the last few weeks.
There is a question from your line conference call. It’s Mr. Jason Kenney from Santander. Mr. Kenney, please proceed with your question.
Jason Kenney – Santander
Hope you can hear me. It’s Jason Kenney from Santander. I just had a quick question on whether you are still optimistic for China Shale gas and how you see developments there impacting the Asia Pacific LNG and gas markets? And then secondly, if I can there’s potential for your free cash flow to push down gearing quite significantly by the end of 2014 going into 2015 particularly if your divestments of (inaudible) were included as well. I’m just wondering if you had a target gearing level on a free cycle basis?
Maybe a clean answer quickly or quicker than louder or something to it. As far as China is concerned, very early days, okay, what we think about the potential for shale gas in China or for the time being we don’t…
Jason Kenney – Santander
We believe that you’re saying, yes.
Of course, incident, yeah, no, we believe that there is all this reason we made an MoU when we are investing, but its early days to define what is the potential, no mater would you agree on that?
Jason Kenney – Santander
Now as far as drilling is concerned, the only target we have for the (inaudible) is to go back below 40%, which has been our target for many years. So, that’s the only target we announced and all this by the end of 2014.
Jason Kenney – Santander
Okay. Many thanks.
So, about social, when you talk about social you mentioned also the power plant and the power plant is social as a byproduct, is an industrial project eventually used as a first (inaudible) gas. We offered to take a commitment in the country where we live. When Paolo talked about double flag in that the (inaudible) we can also make the choice to develop the domestic market. And that is a best way to give sustainability and expand our presence in the country, because the only way to be credible is to take some risk. The risk, it is analyzed and followed up, it is good that we don’t throw away our money.
The Nigeria power plant was very successful internal result, internal relations with the government, internal recurring our cost and now we are – we replicate this example in Congo. We are starting diligent production. So it’s a social project. The other social project by the Green River project that we developed very successfully in Nigeria, which started in '86, it’s something inside and covered by the contracts that's there in the country.
We cannot do anything – we are not a foundation – we cannot do anything outside the contracts that we have with our (inaudible). It's clear that is something outside our core business. We treat money, we have to demonstrate that we are doing well, is a long process. The first part in the (inaudible) Nigeria and NPC, BPR, the local stakeholder, this a committee – a follow up committee, where to present our budgets, is a very complex procedure. That’s associate party is covered by the contract.
There's a question from new line conference call with Iain Reid from Jefferies. Please go ahead, sir.
Iain Reid – Jefferies & Co.
Hello, so it’s Reid here from Jefferies. Two questions actually, firstly you mentioned that there's no damage in our facilities in Libya, but there was, I saw in newswire today in London that the (inaudible) field has been severely damaged – I mean, quite was – is in ruins and that was closer than Eni representative in Libya.
So just wondering if you'd comment on that and where that might move for resumption of production. And the second question's on Snam Rete Gas. Is it really possible for you to sell your state anybody apart from Italian institution whether that's a company or the government and is there really any appetite there for taking on this – liability or this is it still the cost at this particular junction, given the CapEx mix at the moment?
Okay. Now, at least in – on the first question, let me answer what happened to our CDPs in Libya. Everything which could have been removed, has been removed. It is very close; computers, pumps, generators et cetera, all these have disappeared. Furniture of course is there. Everything which could not have been removed has not been removed that is nobody try to damage installations. So no damage on per process simply (inaudible) people removing what was removable. This is true for all the fields including (inaudible).
Now of course you understand that when removable things are very small things now are investment and fairly easy – easily to replace that’s the reason we are optimistic of our redemption of production with one caveat with one question mark, that is security because I don’t think security granted in Libya and of course if security becomes an issue everything I may telling you about resume in production doing fantastic things I will take it back because security comes first.
Now these are – now on terms of Snam Rete Gas let’s say realistically I think that the only one possibility I can see as a potential controlling shareholder of Snam Rete Gas is (inaudible) price, this seems to me realistic then we might dream other solutions, but we’re in the area of dreams, not in the area of things which are likely to happen. That’s the region on which we are strolling to find a solution.
No more questions in the call. Perhaps we can then just close.
No more question from the call.
Well, thank you, gentlemen. I just wanted to say that I’m leaving you with Claudio, Alessandro, Roberto the whole team unfortunate to fly back to Milan, but I’m sure we’ll enjoy because the Congo is the perfect example of everything we do in Africa – really is the example, (inaudible) which we do everything, thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen the conference call is over. Thank you for calling.
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