ECRI: Inflation Remains In A Cyclical Downtrend

by: Cullen Roche

The latest inflation reading out of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is consistent with its general economic call – inflation is in a cyclical downtrend. Despite wide ranging fears over the results of QE2, the Fed’s “debt monetization,” “money printing” and government spending, inflation remains muted by just about any metric.

The most recent reading from the ECRI’s Future Inflation gauge showed a slight uptick to 99.5 from 99.2 in August, but inflation pressures are certainly not surging or even rising as many have expected (via the ECRI):

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 99.9 from a revised 99.2 in August, originally reported as 99.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

“Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG is still close to July’s ten-month low. Thus, U.S. inflation pressures remain in a cyclical downtrend,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

(Click chart to enlarge)