I've taken some flak recently for my persistently bearish views of the stock market over the past year. Rightfully so. I've been dead wrong. And with a record level of bulls, it should come as no surprise that they'd like to gloat.
But I'd like to make a few things clear. First, I'm not a perma-bear. Far from it. I was rip-snorting bullish on stocks back in early 2009, when it was very painful and lonesome to be such. And when the broader stock market presents investors with another good buying opportunity, I won't hesitate to get bullish again.
Second, just because I "worry top down" that doesn't prevent me from successfully investing "bottom up." I was very bullish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) a couple of years ago when it was also painful and lonesome to be such. I also turned very bullish on Herbalife (NYSE:HLF) earlier this year. Even if these trades were fully hedged they would have crushed the S&P. My worries are also one reason I've been bullish long bonds, another trade that has crushed the stock market.
I really find it funny that stocks are the only asset class where if you don't own them - and today that means owning the index - when they go up you're an idiot. What about those who didn't own gold in the 2000s? Or those who didn't short financials in 2008? Or those who haven't owned long bonds over the past few years? Why aren't you an idiot for missing these trades?
Right now there's a zeitgeist. It's a mantra among investors that if you don't own stocks 100% of the time you're a loser. To me this is asinine. There have been plenty of times throughout history where owning stocks was a loser's game and today has all of the makings of another one. And the zeitgeist, itself, is compelling anecdotal evidence of that!
One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do… I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up… I wait for a situation that is like the proverbial "shooting fish in a barrel." -Jim Rogers in Market Wizards
I look for compelling risk/reward setups. That's my personal style and it works for me. As I see it, the current risk/reward equation for owning an equity index fund is all risk and no reward. And some very smart people agree with the idea.
Ultimately, I still believe it's time to play defense:
Marks became bearish on "riskier debt markets" way back in 2004. Just because he was three or four years early does that make him an idiot? Of course not. Did playing defense cost him performance during those years? Yes. But was it worth it? Absolutely. Playing defense was critical to surviving the financial crisis.
Knowing when it's time to play defense versus offense is critical to staying power in this game. I've been through a number of cycles now in my career. I'm not going to simply decide one day to ignore the risks I see just because they haven't materialized over the past 12 months. I don't need to own an S&P 500 index fund to make money when there are plenty of other far more compelling ways to do so.
And the single reason I continue to share my bearish views on stocks is that I truly care about trying to help long-term investors avoid another painful lesson. In fact, that's exactly what I've been doing here for nearly a decade now.