Strap Yourself In - Imminent Whipsaw Into Year End

Nov. 07, 2011 6:12 PM ETSPY68 Comments

As I am sure I do not need to explain to those of you that follow the markets on a daily basis, this has been one of the most trying times in history for traders and investors alike. The markets have whipsawed back and forth for all of 2011, and probably more so than any other time in history. However, we are not done yet.

Current Market Risks

I am not sure if I would have the room in one article to adequately explain each and every market risk that exists currently, but let me at least mention a few.

The European Debacle

Let's first look at Greece, which has approximately €11 billion in debt maturing in 2012, which represents 6.55% of its total GDP. Until this point, we have been led to believe that Greece is in the worst situation of all the European countries. However, the United Kingdom has €14 billion in debt that is maturing in 2012, which represents 6.77% of its total GDP. Now, here is the kicker: Italy has over €16 billion in debt maturing in 2012, which represents 7.5% of its total GDP. Therefore, it is quite clear that we are nowhere near done with the European debacle. Furthermore, if the European Union is having such a difficult time dealing with Greece, what is going to happen when Italy now comes to the forefront?

What is making this situation much more dire is that the Italian borrowing costs have recently soared. In fact, yields have risen from 4% to over 6% within the last 12 months. This has meant an additional 40€ billion a year in additional interest costs. This is in addition to the fact that the Italian economy has been contracting as we speak. In fact, Nouriel Roubini is suggesting that Italy

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Avi Gilburt is founder of, a live trading room and member forum focusing on Elliott Wave market analysis with over 6000 members and almost 1000 money manager clients. Avi emphasizes a comprehensive reading of charts and wave counts that is free of personal bias or predisposition.

Avi is an accountant and a lawyer by training. His education background includes his graduating college with dual accounting and economics majors, and he then passed all four parts of the CPA exam at once right after he graduated college. He then earned his Juris Doctorate in an advanced two and a half year program at the St. John’s School of Law in New York, where he graduated cumlaude, and in the top 5% of his class. He then went onto the NYU School of Law for his masters of law in taxation (LL.M.).

Before retiring from his legal career, Avi was a partner and National Director at a major national firm. During his legal career, he spearheaded a number of acquisition transactions worth hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in value. So, clearly, Mr. Gilburt has a detailed understanding how businesses work and are valued.

Yet, when it came to learning how to accurately analyze the financial markets, Avi had to unlearn everything he learned in economics in order to maintain on the correct side of the market the great majority of the time. In fact, once he came to the realization that economics and geopolitics fail to assist in understanding how the market works, it allowed him to view financial markets from a more accurate perspective.

For those interested in how Avi went from a successful lawyer and accountant to become the founder of, his detailed story is linked here.
Since Avi began providing his analysis to the public, he has made some spectacular market calls which has earned him the reputation of being one of the best technical analysts in the world.

As an example of some of his most notable astounding market calls, in July of 2011, he called for the USD to begin a multi-year rally from the 74 region to an ideal target of 103.53. In January of 2017, the DXY struck 103.82 and began a pullback expected by Avi.

As another example of one of his astounding calls, Avi called the top in the gold market during its parabolic phase in 2011, with an ideal target of $1,915. As we all know, gold hit a high of $1,921, and pulled back for over 4 years since that time. The night that gold hit its lows in December of 2015, Avi was telling his subscribers that he was on the phone with his broker buying a large order of physical gold, while he had been accumulating individual miner stocks that month, and had just opened the EWT Miners Portfolio to begin buying individual miners stocks due to his expectation of an impending low in the complex.

One of his most shocking calls in the stock market was his call in 2015 for the S&P500 to rally from the 1800SPX region to the 2600SPX region, whereas it would coincide with a “global melt-up” in many other assets. Moreover, he was banging on the table in November of 2016 that we were about to enter the most powerful phase of the rally to 2600SPX, and he strongly noted that it did not matter who won the 2016 election in the US, despite many believing that the market would “crash” if Trump would win the election. This was indeed a testament to the accuracy of the Fibonacci Pinball method that Avi developed.

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