10 Scary Charts: April 15, 2015 Update

by: Ted Kavadas

Summary

Displays ten long-term charts depicting various broad-based aspects of the economic situation.

Charts generally show worrisome levels despite 70 months having passed since the end of the recession.

The charts show how "atypical" the current economic era is from a long-term perspective.

Please note this post is the latest update to a series of articles, the last being "10 Scary Charts: January 16, 2015 Update."

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now - 70 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession - is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the "atypical" nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 3-17-15):

US. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started[HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST/, April 14, 2015.

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The Federal Deficit (last updated 2-20-15):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYFSD/, April 14, 2015.

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Federal Net Outlays (last updated 2-20-15):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, April 14, 2015.

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State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-27-15):

US. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State and local government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes: Income taxes [ASLPITAX], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ASLPITAX/, April 14, 2015.

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Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-1-15):

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks [TOTLL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTLL/, April 14, 2015.

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Bank Credit - All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-1-15):

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks[TOTBKCR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR/, April 14, 2015.

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M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 4-9-15):

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, April 14, 2015.

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Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 4-3-15):

US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED/, April 14, 2015.

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Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 4-3-15):

US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART/, April 14, 2015.

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated 3-23-15):

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average[CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CFNAIMA3/, April 14, 2015.

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I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2095.84 as this post is written

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it. The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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