AUD/USD - Poised To Test Resistance At 0.7850 Again

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Includes: CROC, FXA, GDAY
by: Dean Popplewell

By Stuart McPhee

AUD/USD for Monday, April 27, 2015

To start this new week the Australian dollar looks poised to break through the long standing resistance level at 0.7850 however this level has stood up tall for several months now and won't break easy. At the beginning of last week the Australian dollar fell sharply but landed on the previous key level at 0.77 which has offered considerable support since that time. A couple of weeks ago saw the Australian dollar enjoy a solid week moving off support around 0.76 to reach a three week high just shy of the resistance level at 0.7850. In doing so, it moved through the key resistance level at 0.77. Since the beginning of March the Australian dollar has relied heavily on support at the 0.76 level.

Below 0.76 its next obvious support level is down at 0.7550 and it will hoping to be propped up by it. Back in early March the Australian dollar made a statement and broke down strongly through the key 0.77 level which then provided significant resistance for the following few days. It was also able to enjoy some short term support around 0.7550 which propped it up and allowed it to rally strongly back up to above 0.79. Throughout February the Australian dollar made repeated attempts to move up strongly to the resistance level at 0.7850 however it was rejected every time and sent back easing lower, which is why this level remains significant presently. Just prior to that towards the end of February the Australian dollar moved through the resistance at 0.7850 to reach a new four week high around 0.7900. In the second half of January, the Australian dollar fell very sharply and break lower from the trading range that had been established roughly between 0.8050 and 0.8200.

Back in mid-January it made numerous attempts at the resistance level at 0.82 only to be sent back often before finally finishing that week moving through this key level. In doing so it was able to reach a one month high near 0.83 before being sold back down again towards 0.82 as the resistance and selling activity above this level kicked in. Over the Christmas / New Year period, the Australian dollar seemed to have been content with trading in a narrow range below the resistance at 0.82, which continues to remain a key level as it is presently provides resistance. The Australian dollar experienced a disappointing November and December moving from resistance around 0.88 down to the new lows recently. For a couple of months from September through to November, the Australian dollar did well to stop the bleeding and trade within a range between 0.8650 and 0.88 after experiencing a sharp decline throughout September which saw it move from close to 0.94 down to below 0.8650.

Australia's core consumer prices matched economists' forecasts in the first three months of the year, providing scope for the central bank to reduce interest rates. The trimmed mean gauge of core prices advanced 0.6 percent from the previous quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney Wednesday, in line with the median forecast. The consumer price index rose 0.2 percent from the prior period, compared with economists' forecasts for a 0.1 percent increase. "Australia's CPI figures aren't as weak as we expected, but they are unlikely to prompt the RBA to abandon its plans to cut interest rates in early May," said Paul Dales, chief Australia and New Zealand economist at Capital Economics. "It seems that the boost to inflation from the lower exchange rate is offsetting the drag from weak wage growth and the indirect effects from lower petrol and utility prices."

(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD/USD April 27 at 00:05 GMT 0.7826 H: 0.7828 L: 0.7816

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.7700 0.7600 0.7550 0.7850 0.8200 -

During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, the AUD/USD is rallying back up to the long standing resistance level at 0.7850. Current range: trading right below 0.7850.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.7700, 0.7600 and 0.7550.

• Above: 0.7850 and 0.8200.

OANDA's Open Position Ratios

(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)

The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back below 50% as the Australian dollar has rallied back to the resistance level at 0.7850. The trader sentiment is in favour of short positions.

Economic Releases

  • 23:50 (Sun) JP Large Retailers Sales (Mar)
  • 23:50 (Sun) JP Retail Sales (Mar)
  • 10:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends (Apr)

* All release times are GMT