3 Good Undervalued Bio-Pharma Speculation Buys

by: StockMatusow

1. Ampio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AMPE)

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Ampio Pharmaceuticals develops innovative proprietary drugs for metabolic disease, eye disease, kidney disease, inflammation, sexual dysfunction and CNS disease. The company selects drugs from its extensive portfolio with the potential to be safe and effective for improving patient care while significantly increasing near-term value for partners and payers. The product pipeline includes new uses for previously approved drugs, some of which are now starting clinical trials, and new molecular entities ("NMEs").

A key strategy includes actively exploring partnership, licensing and other collaboration opportunities to maximize the company's product development programs.

Pipeline and Catalysts:

  • Ampion™
  • Innate biological anti-inflammatory product
  • DADKP, a cyclic dipeptide derivative of human serum albumin
  • Phase II, approaching FDA in Q1 2012
  • Oral therapy to prevent diabetes-induced blindness
  • Danazol
  • Human data expected Q2 2012, approaching FDA in Q3 2012
  • Composition of matter, manufacturing, and use patents
  • Active Compound 5
  • Zertane™
  • Premature Ejaculation, a larger patient population than ED
  • Tramadol
  • Human efficacy trials completed, approaching FDA 2012
  • 32 use patents issued in the US & internationally, Zertane + PDE5i .patents pending

Shares Outstanding: 28.80M

Float: 14.87M

Conclusion on Ampio Pharmaceuticals:

Large pipeline and low float, selling at 4.11 a share puts market cap of Ampio at around 120 million. Their pipeline alone is worth more than that in my opinion. Because of the low float, any strong positive news, and this stock will fly. My price target for 2012 = 7$

2. Geron Corporation (NASDAQ:GERN)

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Geron is a biopharmaceutical company developing first-in-class cancer therapeutics. Imetelstat, the company's lead telomerase inhibitor, is currently being evaluated in four Phase 2 clinical oncology studies for the following indications: non-small cell lung cancer, breast cancer, essential thrombocythemia and multiple myeloma. GRN1005, an LRP-directed peptide-drug conjugate, is being evaluated in two Phase 2 clinical trials, one for brain metastases arising from non-small cell lung cancer and the other for brain metastases arising from breast cancer.

Pipeline and Catalysts:

On December 22, 2011, Geron announced the initiation of GRABM-L (GRN1005 Against Brain Metastases - Lung cancer), a Phase 2 clinical trial to evaluate GRN1005 in patients with brain metastases arising from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

GRN1005 (previously known as ANG1005) is an LRP-directed peptide-drug conjugate (LRP-directed PDC) being developed for the treatment of cancers in the brain. GRN1005 is designed to deliver cytotoxic drug across the BBB and into tumors by exploiting a native mechanism by which essential substances, such as lipids and hormones, are actively transported into the brain through receptors. GRN1005 is comprised of three molecules of paclitaxel linked to a proprietary 19 amino acid peptide (Angiopep-2) that is designed to target the lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 (LRP1), one of the most highly expressed receptors on the surface of the BBB. Binding to LRP1 facilitates receptor-mediated transport, or transcytosis, across the BBB into the brain tissue. LRP1 is also up-regulated in many tumors, therefore once in the brain, GRN1005 may gain entry into tumor cells using the same receptor by a process known as endocytosis. GRN1005 is a prodrug, which becomes activated in cells after it is cleaved by esterases to release active paclitaxel from the peptide.

Since Phase 2 was announced on GRN1005. Geron has been moving upwards in stock price. Any time a biopharma has a possible treatment/cure for cancer, the speculation can become massive.

It appears that Geron shares are being slowly accumulated. Short interest is 11 million shares as of December 15th. 2011. The short interest here represents 9% of the float. Any positive news about GRN1005 Phase 2 clinical will likely sky rocket the pps.

Conclusion on Geron:

Current share price is 1.72. If Geron finds any kind of success with GRN1005 Phase 2, the pps this year could easily see 5$ a share.

3. Antares Pharma (AIS)

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Antares Pharma focuses on self-injection pharmaceutical products and technologies, and topical gel-based products. It offers injection devices which include Zomajet 2 Vision, Zomajet Vision X, Twin-Jector EZ II, and Tjet for human growth hormone; Medi-Jector Vision for insulin; Vibex disposable pressure assisted auto injectors that enables a controlled pressure delivery of drugs into the body utilizing a spring power source; and disposable pen injectors, which are needle-based devices designed to deliver multiple injections from multi-dose drug cartridges. The company also provides Anturol, an oxybutynin ATD (advanced transdermal delivery) gel, for Watson Pharma (WPI) for the treatment of overactive bladder; Elestrin, a transdermal estradiol gel for the treatment of moderate-to-severe vasomotor symptoms associated with menopause.

Antares markets its products to pharmaceutical companies primarily in the United States and Europe. It has collaborative arrangements and license agreements with Teva; (NYSE:TEVA) Ferring Pharmaceuticals, JCR Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, (NYSE:PFE) Jazz Pharmaceuticals, (NASDAQ:JAZZ) and Population Council. The company was founded in 1979 and is based in Ewing, New Jersey.

Pipeline and Catalysts:

  • Tjet/ZomaJet
  • VIBEX Epipen
  • VIBEX 2
  • Pen 1
  • Pen 2
  • NestraGel
  • Undisclosed Product in clinical phase trials; Partnered with Pfizer.

Conclusion on Antares Pharma:

Antares is currently in talks with several potential big pharma partners for NestraGel. NestraGel is Female Birth control in a gel form. I believe NestraGel eventually will be one of the biggest money making pharma products ever. Once Antares has made a deal with a partner for NestraGel, phase 3 clinical will commence. For more information on NestraGel, please refer to my prior article here.

VIBEX MTX faces a market in the billions. For a more in depth look at Antares Pharma, please see my prior articles here and here.

The Speculation is not as high with Antares as it should be. Investors tend to speculate stocks like ARIAD Pharma (NASDAQ:ARIA) and Dendreon Pharma (NASDAQ:DNDN) because they offer potential cancer treatments/cures.

I feel once the word gets around about NestraGel and VIBEX MTX, and Antares makes the right deal for NestraGel, the stock price will take off.

My estimation for Antares Pharma in 2012 is 7$ a share.

My biopharma watch list for this month include Aeterna Zentaris, (NASDAQ:AEZS) Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, (NASDAQ:KERX) Cell Therapeutics, (NASDAQ:CTIC) Arena Pharmaceuticals, (NASDAQ:ARNA) SIGA Technologies, (NASDAQ:SIGA) Merck (NYSE:MRK).

Disclosure: I am long AIS.

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