BRIC Manufacturing PMI: Continued Pain In May

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Includes: BIK, BKF, EEB, EMDD
by: Constantin Gurdgiev

Things got pretty ugly for the manufacturing sector across the BRIC economies in April, and the trend continues into May. The latest data from Markit shows that:

  • Brazil Manufacturing PMI slipped marginally from a strongly contractionary 46.0 in April to 45.9 in May. The 3-month average through May is now at an abysmal 46.0 against the 3-month average through February at 50.2, the 3-month average through May 2014 was 49.6. All in all, this is the fourth consecutive month of sub-50 readings, and adjusting for statistical significance, the PMI index rose above 50.0 only once over the last 16 months. This May reading is the lowest for any month since September 2011.
  • Russia Manufacturing PMI fell from a contractionary 48.9 reading in April to a very poor 47.6 in May. The 3-month average through May is now at 48.2 - not a disaster, but poor - against the 3-month average through February at 48.7, the 3-month average through May 2014 was 48.6. All in all, this is the sixth consecutive month of sub-50 readings, and adjusting for statistical significance, the PMI index rose above 50.0 only once over the last 9 months. May 2015 reading ties for the lowest level of PMI for the Russian economy since June 2009.
  • China Manufacturing PMI rose marginally from a contractionary 48.9 reading in April to a still sub-50 reading of 49.2 in May. The 3-month average through May is now at 49.2 - a poor reading for the economy - against the 3-month average through February at 50.0, the 3-month average through May 2014 was 48.5. This May marks the third consecutive month of sub-50 readings, and adjusting for statistical significance, the PMI index rose above 50.0 last time in July 2014.
  • India Manufacturing PMI continued to buck the BRIC trend, staying above the 50.0 mark, albeit slipping from the 53.0 reading in April to 52.6 in May. The 3-month average through May is now at 52.0 against the 3-month average through February at 52.9, the 3-month average through May 2014 was 51.3. All in all, this is the 19th consecutive month of above-50 readings.


Overall, three out of four BRIC economies posted sub-50 PMIs for manufacturing in May for the third consecutive month in a row, while the fourth BRIC economy (India) posted a slowdown in the rate of positive growth in the sector.