BRIC Manufacturing PMI: Continued Pain In May

Jun. 03, 2015 11:11 AM ETEEB, BIK, BKF, EMDD
Constantin Gurdgiev profile picture
Constantin Gurdgiev
1.04K Followers

Things got pretty ugly for the manufacturing sector across the BRIC economies in April, and the trend continues into May. The latest data from Markit shows that:

  • Brazil Manufacturing PMI slipped marginally from a strongly contractionary 46.0 in April to 45.9 in May. The 3-month average through May is now at an abysmal 46.0 against the 3-month average through February at 50.2, the 3-month average through May 2014 was 49.6. All in all, this is the fourth consecutive month of sub-50 readings, and adjusting for statistical significance, the PMI index rose above 50.0 only once over the last 16 months. This May reading is the lowest for any month since September 2011.
  • Russia Manufacturing PMI fell from a contractionary 48.9 reading in April to a very poor 47.6 in May. The 3-month average through May is now at 48.2 - not a disaster, but poor - against the 3-month average through February at 48.7, the 3-month average through May 2014 was 48.6. All in all, this is the sixth consecutive month of sub-50 readings, and adjusting for statistical significance, the PMI index rose above 50.0 only once over the last 9 months. May 2015 reading ties for the lowest level of PMI for the Russian economy since June 2009.
  • China Manufacturing PMI rose marginally from a contractionary 48.9 reading in April to a still sub-50 reading of 49.2 in May. The 3-month average through May is now at 49.2 - a poor reading for the economy - against the 3-month average through February at 50.0, the 3-month average through May 2014 was 48.5. This May marks the third consecutive month of sub-50 readings, and adjusting for statistical significance, the PMI index rose above 50.0 last time in July 2014.
  • India Manufacturing PMI continued to buck the BRIC trend, staying above the 50.0 mark, albeit slipping from the 53.0 reading in April to 52.6 in May. The 3-month average through May is now at 52.0 against the 3-month average through February at 52.9, the 3-month average through May 2014 was 51.3. All in all, this is the 19th consecutive month of above-50 readings.


Overall, three out of four BRIC economies posted sub-50 PMIs for manufacturing in May for the third consecutive month in a row, while the fourth BRIC economy (India) posted a slowdown in the rate of positive growth in the sector.

This article was written by

Constantin Gurdgiev profile picture
1.04K Followers
I lecture in Finance in Trinity College, Dublin and at Monterey Institute for International Studies (California) and hold a number of non-Executive and advisory positions. I am research-active in macroeconomics and finance, as well as economic policy analysis and my academic record can be found on the designated section of my blog http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/. In the past, I served as the Head of Research and Partner with St Columbanus AG, Head of Macroeconomics (Institute for Business Value, IBM), Director of Research (NCB Stockbrokers), Group Editor and Director (Business and Finance Publications). All opinions expressed are my own and do not reflect the views or positions of any of my past, present or future employers. Potential conflicts of interest are highlighted in the posts wherever I can reasonably foresee such arising.
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