By Stuart McPhee
Gold - Thursday 18 June 2015
In the last couple of weeks gold has been content to trade around the key $1180 level and it presently sits right above $1180 after recently surging higher to $1190. During last week it rallied well to move from a two month low near $1160 back up to above $1190 again before easing back to the $1180 level. The key $1180 level has consistently provided solid support and has held it up now for a couple of months, with the recent exception. A few weeks ago gold fell sharply back through the key $1200 level and spent the remainder of that week consolidating in a narrow range around $1190.
The $1200 level has been a significant level throughout most of this year and remains a key level presently offering reasonable resistance to higher prices, whilst lower the $1180 level continues to be significant. Throughout the last month or so the $1180 level has provided some support and has been called upon recently. Earlier in May it was able to make a run through the $1200 level to reach a three month high above $1230 however gold was quickly sold off and returned back to the $1200 level where it enjoyed some support for several days.
For around two months through April gold traded in a range between $1180 and around $1220 and had very few excursions outside these limits. Gold is currently pinned between resistance at $1200 and support at $1180 and it is surprising to see it trade in such a narrow range for several days. It seems it is waiting patiently for external factors to determine which level will be severely tested next.
(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)
Gold June 18 at 01:25 GMT 1186.1 H: 1189.5 L: 1174.7
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Thursday, gold is easing back to $1185 after recently surging higher to nearly $1190. Current range: trading right around $1185.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 1180 and 1150.
• Above: 1200 and 1240.
OANDA's Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for gold among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for gold has moved back below 75% again as gold has consolidated above $1180. The trader sentiment is strongly in favour of long positions.
- 08:00 EU ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin
- 08:30 UK Retail Sales (May)
- 09:00 EU Labour Cost Index (Q1)
- 12:30 US CPI (May)
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- 12:30 US Initial Claims (13/06/2015)
- 13:00 EU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels
- 14:00 US Leading Indicator (May)
- 14:00 US Philadelphia Fed Survey (Jun)
- JP BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (to 19th)
- UK BoE release Quarterly Bulletin (Q2)
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