Philippines, Not Thailand, Most Exposed to Rising Oil Prices

Excerpt from an essay by Morgan Stanley economists Deyi Tan and Daniel Lian:

When the subject of oil shocks in Southeast Asia is broached, Thailand is always singled out as the economy most negatively affected. The reason? The inefficient transport sector is to blame for the nation’s high oil dependency. Using a back-of-the-envelope measurement, Thailand is indeed very oil dependent, needing 0.15 tons of oil to produce every US$1,000 GDP output on a PPP basis.

However, closer analysis throws doubt on the explanation, at least within a Southeast Asian context. Using sector-specific transport data, our calculations show that the Philippines is the most inefficient, taking 1.2 tons of oil to produce every US$1,000 of transport output on a PPP basis. By comparison, Thailand takes 0.7 tons and Singapore, which is the most efficient, takes only 0.3 tons.

Full article here.

« Any opinions expressed on the Seeking Alpha sites are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of SeekingAlpha or its management. »