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Box: IBM Integration Underlines My Microsoft And General Takeover Target Thesis

Jun. 24, 2015 10:39 AM ETBox, Inc. (BOX) StockIBM, MSFT10 Comments
Dallas Salazar profile picture
Dallas Salazar
5.21K Followers

Summary

  • Box is out with huge news Wednesday morning in regards to a comprehensive integration with IBM.
  • This integration, 8 days after Box announced integration with Microsoft (MSFT) for its Microsoft Office 365, further confirms my speculation that Box is “on the block” as an acquisition target.
  • With both integrations I believe Box is now significantly more attractive as an overall acquisition.
  • This materially changes the reach and use case capacity of Box and that is a very, very enticing combination for a company the size of IBM and/or Microsoft.
  • Adding Box capacity via M&A, at what is currently a discount to IPO pricing, just makes sense - both have agendas much larger than cloud storage and collaboration to push.

Box (NYSE:BOX) is out with huge news Wednesday morning in regards to a comprehensive integration with IBM (IBM). This integration, which is just 8 days after Box announced a similarly huge integration with Microsoft (MSFT) for its Microsoft Office 365, further confirms my speculation that Box is "on the block" as an acquisition target.

I recently opined that Box, the polarizing ECC platform provider, could be being looked at as a potential platform addition for Microsoft in that Microsoft's integration signals a concession of OneDrive market share. It should also be noted, which wasn't mentioned in my article, that Microsoft also has a substantially similar integration with Box competitor Dropbox. That said, I believe this to only underline my speculation that Microsoft has conceded its OneDrive market share. Also, that Microsoft is instead trying to first promote the take rate of its productivity suite while secondarily building a "wish list" for cloud storage and collaboration providers.

Now, how is this summary relevant to the Box/IBM partnership?

With the Box/IBM partnership bringing the benefits of IBM's Analytics, Social, and Security tech to Box customer's existing and new as well as the new ability to choose local, in-region data storage on IBM's cloud platforms for international enterprise customers I believe Box is now significantly more attractive as an overall acquisition. Along with these benefits the IBM partnership also will allow builders and developers to integrate Box API's into enterprise apps and web services tethered to IBM's platform and existing Box customers will now be able to utilize Watson Analytics for contents stored via Box.

Again, this materially changes the reach and use case capacity of Box and that is a very, very enticing combination for a company the size of IBM and/or Microsoft - both with agendas much larger than cloud storage and collaboration to push. Adding

This article was written by

Dallas Salazar profile picture
5.21K Followers
Dallas Salazar is the CEO an Austin-based consulting firm that specializes in private company lifecycle management, up to and including taking companies public, and in helping consult publicly traded companies. Mr. Salazar is also a venture investor in a portfolio of energy and commodity startups, including startups extracting oil, natural gas, helium, and carbon dioxide, as well as engaged in the business of large scale carbon sequestration. Mr. Salazar has recently had large exits in Comstock Resources, Eclipse Resources, Torchlight Energy, as well as numerous privately held natural resource and commodity extraction ventures.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Comments (10)

s
On reflection it seems to have lots to prove still.
R
Box a takeover target for msft. are you kidding me. they spend more money in pens and pencils a year than box does in revenue. box almost spends as much money as the do revenue. msft is better off just buying more pens than taking over this money losing enterprise
t
I bought the first day it went on the market at 23.00 a share I held tight and now it looks like its going to pay off sooner than I thought
s
Here is the list of BOX customers. http://bit.ly/1LozCrW
With IBM relationship that could grow much more, though its far more impressive now than I expected it to be.
Dallas Salazar profile picture
I agree mostly. That's the bear argument I have against BOX and the space in general. However, BOX does offer greater levels of security, control, and now access to a large loyal segment of IBM customers. IBM has no productivity suite similar to MSFT.

I don't know, I'm not saying it's a perfect fit but I'm saying it makes more than enough sense to see this execute.
Dallas Salazar profile picture
So good questions.

I am optimistic and now bullish BOX longer term BUT my belief is that this story only moves higher if MSFT/IBM/etc. actually realize the potential in the takeover rather than utilizing BOX as an indentured servant while watching its market cap slowly trickle lower and lower - which could happen.

As a stand-alone business BOX's core competency is highly commoditized and in a race to zero - BUT I believe is overlayed onto MSFT/IBM/a few other names it could create substantial value (as written about above).

So as attractive as BOX is, I may have to sit this one out forever in that there isn't a dominated strategy to be had here. At least not one yet that is visible.

I hope that answers yalls questions.
pgy001 profile picture
pls help me understand why MSFT will spend north of $2bn for a commodity they basically give out for free? What will they be buying, the infrastructure (box doesn't have any), customers? (who invariably have or will be paying for O365 with unlimited onedrive), brand?

Any "collaboration" MSFT enters with a cloud storage provide is only a kiss of death. It is only a matter of time before box, dropbox subscribers wonder why not just substitute the money they pay for cloud storage for O365, you know get the whole office suite plus unlimited storage
I
It would seem that MSFT and IBM have figured out how to delete BOX from the market place. This partnership model could erode profits and then one of them swoops in and acquires the company for dirt cheap.
borisb profile picture
I agree. Would seem that Box now has everything it needs in terms of IBM's strong points. and the TAM is about $25 Billion according to Box CEO. However the stock hasn't ever actually been optimistic and this isn't easy to change.
Nice article Dallas,

Have you changed your opinion on Box or do you still advise to "continue to avoid BOX but BOX is interesting longer term now." as you suggested in your previous BOX article…...

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