Bakken By County

by: Ron Patterson

North Dakota publishes monthly ND Historical Barrels of Oil Produced by County. This data, however, does not include confidential wells. But they do estimate, by county, their confidential well production here: Oil and Gas Production Report

All charts are in barrels per day and are only for the last 16 months in order to get a better and expanded view of what each county is doing.

First, a 16-month view of all North Dakota production. North Dakota production, in April, stood at 1,168,636 bpd. That is 17,631 bpd below their production last September, 7 months previous. North Dakota production is down 59,385 bpd since the high reached in December.

McKenzie County April production stood at 413,671 bpd, 31,555 bpd below their high in December.

Mountrail County production stood at 255,384 bpd in April, 36,132 bpd below their peak in September.

Dunn County, North Dakota's third largest producer peaked, so far, in March at 202,609 bpd but fell 15,348 bpd in April to 187,262 bpd.

Williams County production stood at 180,434 bpd in April, 2,239 bpd below their latest peak in February.

Production in all the rest of North Dakota combined stood at 131,885 bpd in April. That was 13,802 bpd below their peak in December.

Here I have a zero based chart of all four counties plus all the rest to give a better comparison of what each county is producing.

I hope this gives everyone a closer look at what is happening in the Bakken.

What's happening in Canada? Is production increasing of declining? I know the Alberta Oil Sands are not all of Canada's production but it is where most all the increase in Canada crude oil production is coming from.

Gas Production Falls in Q1 2015

Q1 2015 saw a significant fall in oil and gas production across Alberta, with many companies recording large declines in core operating areas compared to the end of 2014.

Between Q3 2014 and Q1 2015, overall Alberta production - excluding oil sands - has fallen by 8% (56,880 boe/d) and between Q4 2014 and Q1 2015, overall production has fallen by 5% (34,165 boe/d). This is due to a number of factors; the fall in global commodity prices is perhaps the major reason for this decline, but companies have also suffered due to other external pressures such as pipeline difficulties or maintenance periods, for example. CanOils Assets is a powerful new tool that can identify both where production declined to the greatest degree and which companies recorded the biggest net decline.

Canada 1

Here we have production from every area of the Alberta Oil Sands. Every place decreased in production each quarter.

Canada 2

Every area of the Alberta Oil Sands dropped significantly in each quarter. Of course, this is oil and gas production. But I find it strange that gas production could fall so much that it dragged down the total by that much.

Here is actual Canadian production and future projection from the Canadian Energy Board along with the EIA's estimate of Canadian production. They seem to have the exact amount, except the EIA's estimate is an average of 140,000 barrels per day lower. I suppose Canada is counting something the EIA is not.

In Other News

Petrobras slashes investment by 37 per cent to reduce leverage

Petrobras (NYSE:PBR), which is one of the world's most heavily indebted oil companies, said that it was cutting its projection for investment in 2015-2019 to $130.3bn, or by 37 per cent in relation to its previous plan…

In a statement, Petrobras said that it was cutting forecasts for domestic production to 2.8m barrels per day of oil equivalent by 2020 from the previous target of 4.2m.

It appears that those who expect Brazil to hold off Peak Oil are betting on a losing nag.

Our old corcunopian buddy Michael Lynch has an article in Forbes. He seems to be a bit worried about what's happening in Venezuela:

Desperate Venezuela 4: Oil Market Impact Of Unrest

Low oil prices would seem to suggest that there is nothing to worry about from potential political unrest in Venezuela. I think it's more that the situation in Venezuela's problems remain over the horizon for many oil traders, until the level of unrest increases to the point where oil production and exports appear to be threatened. The economic and social situation has become horrendous, but since there have been no terrorist attacks (or Kardashian visits, kind of the same thing), it hasn't gone the media coverage it deserves.