Keuka Capital
CFA, value, long-term horizon, investment advisor

Why Blackstone Group LP May Have Further To Fall

In my first article on Blackstone Group LP (NYSE:BX), I discussed why I viewed Blackstone as a risky investment in the summer 2015 market environment. My argument was that the company is particularly vulnerable to any decrease in market multiples and/or increase in interest rates. I asserted that BX's unique revenue/cash flow-generating model, which is influenced (in part) by market multiples outside its control, may be at risk should multiples stagnate or contract.

I followed that article up with a 2Q15 earnings article that highlighted what I viewed as evidence in Blackstone's 2Q15 earnings report that its distribution may peak in 2015/2016.

Since those articles, and despite nearly all sell-side analysts having a "Buy" on the stock (in...

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