Expect Higher U.S. Rates To Attract Japanese Investors

The world's equity markets seem to be settling down for now, now that the absolute shock of higher interest rates are sinking in. To begin with, what's most shocking is that people were anticipating lower rates any time soon. I've been harping for months that the last thing this Fed is going to do is lower rates.

So, we've got higher interest rates here in the U.S. That is very likely to translate into a higher USD vs. the JPY. The yield appeal will be great enough to draw funds into the U.S., vs. other major currencies. This, of course will translate into a perpetual motion of the carry trade for some time to come. Although I was prepared for the apocalypse on Friday, the USD/JPY 121.00 level not only held, but soared like a rocket. That kept the carry nicely in place.

I don't see the other majors coming down vs. the USD because of this. Instead, I think the only thing that is going to happen is the higher rates will draw more Japanese investors. As for currencies like GBP, we're basically at parity vs. the USD when looked at from an interest rate perspective. AUD and NZD are still the highest, and are still garnering the most attention. I don't see that changing. The carry will get pushed higher and higher vs. these currencies.

The only potential "loser" may actually be EUR. Trichet came out limp last week with the press conference. That puts the EUR with some of the lowest interest (save fro CHF). I see EUR/USD just sitting around smoldering for some time. A lot like the limpness that Trichet showed.

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