Bloomin' Brands, Inc. Has Multiple Tailwinds That Will Drive Performance In 2016

| About: Bloomin' Brands (BLMN)


Low gas prices will continue to drive the restaurant industry, with leading companies raking in the lion's share of the profits.

Dividend paying companies will outperform the rest of the market as we enter bear territory.

With a PEG ratio of 0.99, the company is growing rapidly and ready for more.

Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLMN) is a rapidly growing business that owns Outback Steakhouse as well as lesser known restaurants such as Carraba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse and Wine Bar. The company has been posting strong growth, with the most recent earnings report showing a PEG ratio of 0.99, which is excellent. Any time you see a PEG ratio under 1 the stock is considered to be low priced relative to the rate at which that company is growing, and with multiple tailwinds at the company's back, this growth may accelerate in 2016. The company trades at only 12 times forward earnings, which is yet another indication that the stock is either undervalued or at least trading at fair value.

But BLMN isn't just an inexpensive stock, it's also a superior business operating in the consumer discretionary space that continues to benefit from low gas prices. With Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in OPEC, recently announcing that they will continue to produce oil at high levels despite the global oversupply, prices continue to decline. The more oil prices decline the more consumer discretionary spending increases. In fact, research shows that consumers in America spend up to 80% of their gas savings and the largest portion of this money is spent at restaurants. It is estimated that the average American spent over $2,000 a year on gas before the decline in prices over the past year. If the statistic above is true that we spend 80% of our gas savings and most of that goes to restaurants, then the average person is spending over $1,000 year at restaurants, a substantial figure.

With a total market cap of only $2 billion, BLMN has a lot of room to grow, which looks probable considering its recent results. So not only is BLMN performing well on its own and expanding aggressively, but it is doing so in an industry that is also continuing to expand with no end in sight. BLMN's 3% profit margins, which may seem relatively low for the casual observer, are actually about average for the restaurant industry. So even though the company is in its early growth phase of the business cycle, it is producing more cash flow than most other restaurants that have been established for longer and even pays a modest dividend, which is quite rare during this phase of a business.

The 1.40% dividend may not be enough to get most dividend investors excited, but with a payout ratio of only 17%, it will likely be raised going forward. This cash flow has become even more important in the current market environment with a return to volatility and increased fear. Dividend paying stocks will outperform as they have historically done when the market declines as conservative investors seek the safety of dividend paying stocks, which bolsters them further and provides an earlier floor than most equities in the market when they eventually rebound. In other words, they are defensive in nature, which is the correct strategy for investors trying to preserve capital during a period of uncertainty.

In conclusion, as gas prices remain low, there will be continued increasing sales in the restaurant sector, which BLMN is benefiting from directly. The brand is clearly resonating with consumers based on recent growth and there is no reason to expect this will not continue. The fundamentals are solid and there is a dividend to boot. Finally, with a conservative valuation of only 12 times forward earnings and a PEG less than 1, the stock looks undervalued.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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