Why 16.4% Of Global Oil Production Is At Risk - Oil Prices Can Soon Reach Over $100 (Part 2)


  • The current supply chain of oil is very fragile, with 16.4% of current global production at risk of disruption due to turmoil in major oil producing countries.
  • What are the risks these countries are facing today, and why oil production risks are much higher today than any time in the past several years?
  • How sensitive is crude price to oversupply or undersupply and what will be the impact of such disruptions on the price of crude?
  • Why crude prices may soar to over $100 sooner than you think?
  • This is part 2 of a recent report I published on Seeking Alpha where I argued why crude oil prices are heading much higher in 2016.

As promised, I am submitting this article today as the 2nd part of a recent report I published on Seeking Alpha where I argued why crude oil (NYSEARCA:NYSEARCA:OIL-OLD) prices are likely to head much higher in the near future to levels predicted by major banks and analysts being $40-$50 a barrel, a price range also confirmed recently by the Energy Information and Administration (EIA), a top watchdog. I gave several reasons to justify my arguments, including why oil supply/demand balance will be reached in 2016 and why the effect of new Iranian oil to the global supply market will be immaterial. To access Part 1 of my report, you can check the following link:

Why The Birth Of A 'New Oil Bull Market' Is Imminent? (Part 1)

In this article, I will argue why 16.4% of the global oil production is at risk, and why crude oil may jump to over $100 again soon, levels seen several times in the recent past years in 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014.

Turmoil in Oil Producing Countries

So far, the turmoil in nations supplying crude has not affected the supply flow of oil. On the contrary, the current chaos has even contributed to oil prices going down due to countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia pumping at record levels to maximize short-term gains, and in the case of Saudi Arabia, to put US shale oil producers out of business and hinder any increased production by its arch-rival Iran. Furthermore, many of the politically and economically less stable countries such as Venezuela and Nigeria were able to survive, although barely, the current rout in crude oil. However, imagine if things change: One or more major producing countries fall into total chaos and start collapsing. Imagine if countries holding 16.4% of global oil production, fragile to begin with due to their internal and external political structure, start facing extreme

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