[UPDATED] Given NakedShorts’ brilliant success* in accurately predicting both the pricing and initial trading range of the Fortress Investment Group (NYSE:FIG) IPO, here’s the book on Blackstone (NYSE:BX):
1. Pricing: The range ($29-31) was confirmed Wednesday. Thursday’s announcement will confirm $31.00 as the price to be paid by the anointed.
2. On Friday morning, Bob Pisani will babble effusively about the huge crowd around the Blackstone booth, before suffering—in the cause of CNBC’s ratings drive—an unfortunate loss of bladder control.
3. The first tick will be $35.50-$36.50, but the great unwashed will lose its collective nerve before the stock hits $40. The first-day close will be in the $37.50-$38.50 range.
*Ummmm. FIG IPO’d at $18.50 compared with my prediction of $22; the stock opened at $35, traded up to $37, and closed at $31. My lots-of-margin-for-error pick of a 3-handle being “probably a stone-cold certainty” was met (FIG closed Wednesday at $26.52; that $37 is still the high tick and the stock has traded as low as $23 and very small change).
Just saying, not playing.
[UPDATE] Investors Flock To Blackstone’s ‘Teflon’ IPO
FT Alphaville Jun. 21 2007