One Market Where Oil Doesn't Really Matter Much

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by: Peter Hayes

In the final of our five-chart series, Feeling Taxed?, we'll scale a particularly slippery slope. Of course, that's oil and this question:

Are you worried your portfolio will be affected by the recent slide in oil and energy prices?

I will once again point you to municipal bonds - one asset class that has been largely insulated from the drop in oil. While some states are major oil producers, the impact of oil's slide has been fairly limited. Texas, the biggest oil producer, is also a big storer of oil - an advantage now given extremely elevated supplies. Many of the other energy-producing states are not large issuers of municipal debt.

And consider this angle: Low oil and gas prices mean more money in consumers' pockets. To the extent that results in more spending, state coffers would benefit from the increased tax collections (and what's good for state budgets is generally good for states' creditworthiness and municipal debt ratings).

At a more granular level, consider that savings at the pump have traditionally resulted in increased tobacco consumption (the logic being that the excess cash is used to fund tobacco habits). We've seen evidence of this recently in the performance of corporate vs. municipal high yield. Whereas the energy sector wreaked havoc on corporate high yield last year, tobacco was the best-performing segment of the municipal high yield market. For investors, the key takeaway is that not all high yield is created equal.

Oil bust supports tobacco boon

This post originally appeared on the BlackRock Blog.