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Celldex Set To Bounce Back

William Meyers profile picture
William Meyers


  • Celldex swooned when a Phase 3 brain cancer trial failed to qualify Rintega for FDA approval.
  • There is $290 million in cash left, vs. a market capitalization of $465 million.
  • There are several other promising therapy candidates in clinical trials.
  • Other pipeline events could mean Celldex will be coming back before the end of 2016.

Celldex Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CLDX) stopped its most advanced clinical trial of Rintega for brain cancer in early March. This resulted in a major stock price drop. However, Celldex has a broader pipeline of drugs in clinical trials. Positive results from any of these candidates would very likely send the price right back up.

The volatility is impressive. As I write (on April 13), you could buy CLDX for $4.68. The 52-week low was $2.96 on March 17, 2016. The 52-week high was $30.28 on April 24, 2015.

Celldex has a market cap of $465 million. It ended Q4 with $290 million in cash. It is a small-cap stock with all the caveats that implies. It is a clinical-development stage cancer biotechnology company with all the caveats that implies.

With new data from a number of studies about to be introduced at the AACR (American Association for Cancer Research) annual meeting between April 17 and 20, now is a good time to review Celldex's prospects.

Pipeline Overview

Minus Rintega, here is the Celldex pipeline graphic from its website:

Celldex Pipeline April 2016

Glembatumab vedotin (CDX-011) is now the most advanced agent in the Celldex pipeline. It is an antibody-drug conjugate that targets a molecule, GPNMB, that is overexpressed in some tumor types. The linking technology was provided by Seattle Genetics (SGEN). The payload is monomethyl auristatin E (MMAE), which kills cells (and would kill healthy cells if delivered to them).

Glembatumab vedotin is in four Phase 2 trials, two run by Celldex and two investigator-sponsored. I'll focus on the Triple Negative Breast Cancer trials, which are the most advanced.

An earlier Phase 2 trial was designed to see if there was a correlation between a high degree of GPNMB and the rate of disease control. 64% of treated high GPNMB breast cancer patients and 75% of triple-negative high GPNMB

This article was written by

William Meyers profile picture
I provided stock and bond research and analysis to a small cap specialist investor, Lloyd Miller, from 2002 until his death in January 2018. For my own account I invest mainly in technology and biotechnology stocks. My technology and investment web site is openicon.com, where readers can view the notes I take to make decisions and to write articles for Seeking Alpha.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long CLDX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

This is financial journalism, not advice.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (27)

Alexandria85 profile picture
still waiting for the bounce back only to lose the CMO...
more waiting....
William Meyers profile picture
Celldex announced it would buy private development stage Koltan Pharmaceuticals, which beefs up the pipeline. I have not had the chance to evaluate the therapy candidates yet.

Here's the press release:

GDPPP profile picture
William, do you think buying Koltan was a good decision by management? Would appreciate if you could do a follow on article on CLDX this year.
yo when you expecting this to bounce? I'm long as a dong but this dog won't hunt. Until they bring a product to market or get bought out, this is dead money.
SenBiden profile picture
why can't we delete these ads?
Hmm this was "promoted" into my feed. This is not a welcome feature!
BMY will steal this company for 15 a share just like they did with mederex!
My purchase price was $17.
These days everything is possible.
zzz111 profile picture
How long will it take for the FDA to decide to approve or not approve the candidates?
Nice article, interesting article and we can only hope that even one of their drugs is successful somewhere down the road for the sake of those who need them more so than the investors. Having said that is Rintega completely dead in the water?
Can anyone explain to me WTF happened to CLDX today? Great news this morning, and then bam!!! I just lost my ass.
hyenah1 profile picture
Don't cry to me. I'm down $176,000 on Celldex since my initial purchase over 2 years ago. I've added and added to my position since then and could not believe what happened with "Rintega" last month. I honestly believe that Celldex is responsible for the disaster that was the phase three trial as the drug has proven to be quite effective in the many years leading up to the "failure." I'm not fond of the overpaid management at this company and believe they need to show some upper management the door! Hopefully sooner than later. In conclusion, I'm confident Celldex will be a $30 stock in a year or two. I'll purchase more shares as the news flows in for the four drugs remaining in the pipeline. One or more will eventually be approved by the FDA. Celldex is certainly worth a lot more than four bucks in the short term.
Glembat looks promising.
William Meyers profile picture
Today Celldex announced good Phase 1 results from its combination of varlilumab with Bristol-Myers Opdivo for colorectal and ovarian cancer. So Phase 2 of the trial is now open. For details: http://bit.ly/1SNRDiV
thats not what the market is saying (- 10% off that news)
William Meyers profile picture
I appreciate all your comments. With preclinical stage and clinical stage biotechs there is a lot of risk, as well as potential reward, compared to "normal" companies that have regular income, expenses, and hopefully profits. What is normal for biotech is for some trials to succeed, and some to fail. I mostly own larger biotechs with broad pipelines (GILD, CELG, etc.) but the more obscure development stage companies can give a real boost to the portfolio when trials do hit their endpoints. I like Celldex, at this moment, based on what I know, which is that its market cap assumes failure when it has several decent shots at success.
rnn profile picture
Ahh remember sune at 80 bucks a few years ago and so many others that are near zero, time can often kill a stock too.
Scrying Biotech profile picture
Called each up and down swing on Celldex. At the recent bottom I implored others not to sell.
Hmmm, let's wait what the cash balance is when they report on 4/28. I would suggest caution because with the failure of Rintega the company will need more cash to continue with its pipeline and it would not be out of the question for it to issue more equity.

Maybe an acquisition target after Rintega based on pipeline.
Company does have very good potential. Risk spread out to 4 products.
Possible to double your money in 3 years.
Random Logic profile picture
Got into CLDX for 15.58 in December 2015 thinking it was a great bargain. Now it's dead money for quite some time at best.
Still risky since they have no phase 3 drugs. Their products still have years away from approval. With small cap biotech it's a coin flip
I would certainly hope so. I bought a large block of CLDX at about 6/shr, based on pipeline and not current events.
I rode this from 17 to 31 and right back down again.

CLDX came out of Medarex. BMY bought MEDX and is hot in the immo space.

Honestly, if these guys can sell this out to BMY at a few points higher I'd be happy.

Management and most of the Street thought Rindo was a slam dunk, well we saw what happened. The pipeline here is still a big question.

At this point I'd take 8 to 10 bucks from a buyer.

A bird in the hand - ---well you know
hyenah1 profile picture
You are too pessimistic - I paid $30/share for some of my shares. My cost is now $27 as I just bought 500 @ $3.50. One of their drugs WILL succeed in time. This biotech is worth more than the Street believes. I'll be buying more soon - you'd be wise to do the same.
zorbs99 profile picture
I to was very surprised and disappointed for Glioblastoma patients and share price. I still feel this stock is way oversold and has much more potential than $10, $20,$30. I am more curious what they find on the final look at the Rintenda trial. Something is just not right regarding those phase III results. This company has so much potential. For those who say this is to risky, go buy bonds. What biotech is not risky? I feel this will be back in double digits much sooner than many think. GL
Clemantine profile picture
CLDX has a long way to go for approval of its many candidates, I expect something to happen within the next 12 months. You?
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