GDP Friday - Yellen Spins Us Into The Holiday Weekend

by: Philip Davis


Atlanta Fed doubles their GDPNow forecast - what nonsense!

Actual GDP 0.8%.

Brexit bets rally strong - the most important thing investors are ignoring.

"Data dependent."

That's what the Fed has said over and over again since the minutes of the last meeting were released on 5/18. Various Fed speakers have talked about 2 or 3 rate hikes this year - if the data supports it - and now we have the Atlanta Fed providing supporting data as they have raised their GDP Now forecast by 100% this month.

Forget the fact that the core Durable Goods were terrible or that Auto Sales are falling off or that Consumer Comfort is at year lows or that yesterday's Richmond Fed Report showed continued contraction - the Fed doesn't measure those things. The Fed measures whatever their Bankster owners want them to measure to come to the conclusion that makes the Banksters the most money. See how simple it is?

We'll see of they are right on the GDP forecast but, if they are - then a June rate hike is a lot more likely than people are thinking because, at this pace, our GDP will be over a Bazillion Dollars in a year or two if we double our growth each month.

Call me a cynic but, to me, if you can change your forecast from 1.6% to 2.9% in 22 days - then your forecast isn't worth anything and people should stop listening to you!

Speaking of things people shouldn't listen to: On Wednesday, we talked about the back and forth on the Brexit issue and, just yesterday, Project Fear put out yet another release from the UK Treasury - this time aimed at seniors with claims that a Brexit would hit pensions by $440Bn. "Pensioners rely on economic growth for their security and stability, whereas leaving the EU would mean huge uncertainty," Pensions Minister Ros Altman said in an interview with BBC Radio 4 on Friday. "All serious economic forecasters agree" that "leaving will damage our economy," she said.

The Treasury has been criticized by Brexit campaigners and some analysts for overstating the consequences of Britain leaving the EU amid accusations the government is playing on voters' fears to keep the U.K. in the bloc. The referendum, now less than four weeks away, has split the ruling Conservative Party in two in a debate that's become increasingly acrimonious, with accusations of smear tactics from both sides.

"This is an utterly outrageous attempt by the government to do down people's pensions," former Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith said in a statement e-mailed by the Vote Leave campaign. He said retirement savings face threats from EU plans to harmonize pension regulations and proposals for a financial-transaction tax.

Here's a good case for leaving from the Telegraph and I agree with the Brexiteers, the entire fear campaign is based on the assumption that the UK will lose out on trade agreements but, as I've said from day one, the UK used to own this whole planet - they certainly know how to negotiate trade deals on their own and the EU takes so long to get 26 nations to ratify their deals that it's been stuck in the mud for 5 years anyway.

Like our GDP forecasts - the whole thing is simply a farce and, if the UK doesn't take this opportunity to escape - this is the Bankster trap they will find themselves in:


The ESM is nothing less than a Government takeover by the Banks, who will be able to squeeze the entire EU the way they have squeezed Greece. This is what is being shoved down the throats of 500M EU citizens (and maybe 50M British citizens) and this is why tens of Billions of Dollars are being spent by Remain lobbyists on Project Fear, to cower the people of the UK into voting to stay in the alliance - by raising fears that worse things will happen if they leave (hard to imagine worse than the ESM though).

That vote is on June 23rd and it's a lot closer than you are being led to believe. Whether it's ultimately good or bad for the UK, a Brexit would certainly be catastrophic for the EU and may lead to a complete collapse of the Euro, so there's a good reason to have cash going into the weekend. We have the next Fed Decision on the 15th and OPEC meets next Thursday (2nd), so alll kinds of crazy, market-moving events coming up in the next two weeks.

8:30 Update: The actual Q1 GDP came in at 0.8%, up from 0.5% in the first estimate and below the 1% expectations of economic forecasters. Net Exports tell the whole story, they are down to -$575M net of oil that has dropped from and average of $90 in 2013 and 2014 to an average of $40 this year and we import 7Mb/day so $50 less x 7M x 365 = $127Bn LESS IMPORTS so, when Net Exports are down $125Bn since 2014 you need to add back $127Bn less oil we're importing and that means our actual exports are down about $250Bn - that's NOT GOOD!

None of this matters because the Banksters are sitting on record amounts of cheap cash (subsidized by you and me) and now they want to lend it out at higher rates (to you and me) so they need the Fed to hike rates so they have an excuse to jam up the lending rates which also drives people into the housing market and the Banksters also happen to be sitting on a record inventory of foreclosures that they stole from the homeowners they tricked into taking unsuitable loans (bailed out by you and me) and now they want to cash in that portfolio so they can lend money to the next round of suckers before they pull the plug and start the cycle all over again.

Have a great holiday!

- Phil

Disclosure: I am/we are short SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, AMZN, TSLA.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Positions as indicated but subject to RAPIDLY change (currently mainly cash and an otherwise slightly bearish mix of long and short positions - see previous posts for other trade ideas). Positions mentioned here have been previously discussed at - a Membership site teaching winning stock, options & futures trading, portfolio management skills and income-producing strategies to investors like you.