BrexMyth: The Red Herring

| About: CurrencyShares British (FXB)


The UK will not leave the EU yet.

Prime Minister Cameron's plans will backfire.

The euro will gradually rise against the GBP.

The possibility of the UK leaving the European Union has dominated the news recently. As someone who grew up in London, I do not see any dangers of the UK leaving the European Union.

In the broad discussions, many of us who were born in the 1980s cannot imagine a UK outside of the European Union. It has become a natural part of what it means to be British. While the markets treat this possibility like a crisis, this is a debate that has been born out of political machinations with all of the three main parties trying to regain relevance within the UK and also on the world stage.

This is why they continue to resort to ever increasingly inflammatory rhetoric to capture the public consciousness. It is what we call 'a storm in a teacup'.

Despite this, this political and media storm has not really filtered down into the political consciousness of a nation where one can find representatives of every nation under the sun. We know that immigration has been very good for Britain all the way from the West Indians in the 1940s, the Indians in the 1960s and 70s, the Africans in the 1980s and 90s. More recently, since 2004, we have had immigrants from Eastern Europe and also increasingly from South America and Southern Europe.

Owing to the UK's colonial past, it has really become a melting pot of diverse cultures and each wave of immigrants has contributed positively to the experience of being British and has been net contributors to the economy.

Whatever the Leave campaign may say about the EU, there is no doubt that the UK needs the EU far more than the EU needs the UK.

The days of the British Empire are long gone and we are now in the season of bloc trading in international economics where individual nations cannot afford to become isolated. This even goes for the giants like Russia, China and the USA.

Once again, the political classes in the UK know this very well but the roots of this continued debate about the UK and its place in the EU is not in economics, politics or even social policy, but in history.

For centuries, there has been this constant rivalry between Great Britain and the Franco German bloc. Wars between these two factions have shaped modern European history.

This is one of the reasons Charles de Gaulle always opposed the admission of the UK into what was then the EC as he sensed correctly that the UK will grow restless under a union dominated by France and Germany and would eventually agitate to rebuild it in its own image.

This is what we are seeing now with the UK holding the EU hostage for its demands despite the fact that each member of the EU contributes equally and also shares in the budget equally.

Whatever happens in this referendum, the agitations are likely to continue because neither side is likely to accept defeat quietly and will continue to press the issue and will cause more instability and volatility. This is a warning aimed especially at the GBP short sellers who are trying to make an easy buck.

In many respects, it is likely to be a pyrrhic victory for Prime Minister Cameron because a very powerful and violently Eurosceptic faction has been created that will make it impossible for him to do his job on his return to Brussels after the vote, because whatever he does, the Eurosceptics will use that to press the case that Brussels is stealing UK sovereignty and Prime Minister Cameron is party to it.

In many respects, Mr. Cameron deserves what he is getting because he continued throughout his term as leader of the Conservative Party and subsequently as leader of the nation to use immigration as the bogeyman at the root of all of society's challenges like the lack of affordable housing, economic challenges, overcrowding, crime, high unemployment rates and so on.

While this pivot to the Right was extremely useful for him as he sought to gain the support of the very powerful Eurosceptic element in his party, it has now come back to haunt him as he is now campaigning against a monster he created; this should serve as a warning to Donald Trump.

All of these political games are feeding the deep distrust of the political class we see around the world; this is not the 19th century of telegraphs and the uneducated masses that believe everything they read in newspapers.

In our world, the internet is filled with independent media sources, every proclamation by a politician or a public figure is disseminated and analysed in minute detail around the world in seconds.

The rules of the political game are changing, and there is a process of gradual destruction of the foundations of what we call democracy and leadership in the West.

This is a condition that is also afflicting the Central Banks who have lost the respect and regard of the markets to the point that it is the markets that tell the Central Banks what they ought to do and not the other way round.

There are significant challenges in global governance that must be addressed of which these current agitations, including the acts of terrorism, are but symptoms and the results of these will be more extreme political swings.

What this portends is more financial markets volatility, my advice to investors will be to stay out of the pound as I expect wild swings in the market while the vote is being counted for the duration of June while the dust settle but then sterling will gradually give up gains it took from the euro.

In conclusion, I expect Britain to remain in the UK, but this will not be the end of the war but only the first battle.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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