Corrections Corporation of America's (CXW) CEO Damon Hininger on Q2 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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Corrections Corporation of America (NYSE:CXW) Q2 2016 Earnings Conference Call August 4, 2016 11:00 AM ET

Executives

Cameron Hopewell - Managing Director of IR

Damon Hininger - President and CEO

David Garfinkle - CFO

Analysts

Michael Kodesch - Canaccord

Tobey Sommer - SunTrust

Andrew Berg - Post Advisory Group

Operator

Good morning. My name is Keith and I will be your conference operator. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to welcome you to the Corrections Corporation of America's Second Quarter 2016 Financial Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to avoid any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you.

I would now like to turn the call over to Cameron Hopewell, CCA's Managing Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Cameron Hopewell

Thanks, Keith. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and thank you for joining us. Participating on today's call are Damon Hininger, President and Chief Executive Officer, and David Garfinkle, Chief Financial Officer.

During today's call, our remarks will include forward-looking statements pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities and Litigation Reform Act. Our actual results or trends may differ materially as a result of a variety of factors, including those identified in our second quarter 2016 earnings release and in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports. You are also cautioned that any forward-looking statements reflect management's current views only and that the company undertakes no obligation to revise or update such statements in the future.

This call will include a discussion of non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of the most comparable GAAP measurement is provided in our corresponding earnings release and included in the supplemental financial data on the Investors section of our website at www.cca.com.

With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Damon Hininger.

Damon Hininger

Thanks, Cameron and good morning to everyone joining our call today. Also joining us is Brian Hammonds, our VP of Finance. CCA is the leading provider of correctional, detention and community corrections real estate and services in the United States. We collaborate with our government partners to provide flexible, timely and cost effective solutions to address their unique needs.

At the core of these needs are mission-critical real estate assets that require design and construction management expertise as well as significant capital investment over a multi-year construction period. We provide these services to three departments within the federal government, the Federal Bureau of Prisons, the United States Marshals Service and Immigration and Customs Enforcement as well as many states, including the District of Columbia and a handful of local municipalities.

There are many common themes facing government operated correctional systems including significant deferred maintenance on existing prison infrastructure due to budget limitations or shortfalls, a lack of funding for new prison development necessary to replace existing government owned facility that have reached the end of their lifecycle or a lack of funding to add additional capacity to alleviate overcrowding in their existing facilities as a result of population growth, the need for additional resources to provide offenders with academic, vocational and other appropriate developmental and rehabilitative opportunities throughout their period of incarceration and the need to expand community-based reentry services offered to offenders reaching the end of their sentences and returning to their communities, which are often proven to reduce the rate of recidivism.

We are well-positioned to be the ideal partner for governments that are actively addressing any or all of these themes in their correctional system. CCA's existing facility portfolio is modern and operationally efficient, allowing our government partners the opportunity to lower their operating expenses when compared to relatively older and less-efficient government-owned facilities. Partnering with us also enables customers to avoid significant upfront capital expenditures required to develop a new facility. CCA has industry-leading experience in the siting, design and construction of correctional and detention facilities, having designed and built more capacity in the last decade than any other organization, public or private.

Additionally, our portfolio of currently idle or available beds offer our government partners the opportunity to address current capacity needs without the lead time required for a new construction project, which can be as little as two to three years, but is often much longer in the case of government-led construction projects. Many government-owned facilities from the federal level down to local municipalities have reached or are approaching the end of their useful life cycle. These facilities are expensive to maintain, have designs resulting in inefficient staffing patterns and lack modern security technologies that improve facility’s safety and security.

Each of these elements result in an unnecessary waste of taxpayer dollars. Additionally, many government-owned facilities are not on a coordinated maintenance program, resulting in a need for significant deferred maintenance investments in the future. These infrastructure investments are not insignificant and in many cases, represent a multibillion dollar problem for individual states and minions at the local level. CCA provides a compelling value proposition to meet these challenges, whether it’s a full-service solution or a design build and lease opportunity; we are the ideal partner for governments.

Our partners are also in need of additional resources to provide meaningful reentry programming to prepare their offender populations to return to their communities. While CCA has always been committed to offer an extensive programmatic and rehabilitative services focused on reentry in our correctional and detention facilities, we have also significantly expanded our capabilities to provide community-based corrections and residential reentry services through our recent acquisitions. CCA is the second largest owner and operator of residential reentry facilities in the United States and we are strategically pursuing additional investments to further grow in this area.

In the second quarter, we continued to execute this strategy as we closed two acquisitions, adding eight facilities and more than 700 beds to our portfolio. We expect to make additional investments in our residential reentry platform and have developed a substantial pipeline of acquisition opportunities. These acquisitions position us well to diversify our sources of cash flow and to generate future growth as our government partners have expressed a growing need for these facilities and the services they offer.

Our strategy for cash flow and funds from operation growth is focused on three specific areas. Owning and operating correctional facilities and detention facilities, the model that represents a majority of our current portfolio and has been the primary driver of growth through our 33-year history. Second, real estate-only solutions, where CCA provides mission-critical real estate assets leased by government organizations. And finally, expanding our residential reentry facility portfolio through acquisitions, either owned and managed or owned and leased to the third-party operators and increasing the occupancy of existing facilities.

In addition to the two acquisitions completed during the second quarter, we have recently received contract awards and are activating new facilities in all three of these growth areas, which supports our view of each of them represent a meaningful avenue for future growth. Beginning with owned and managed facilities, we are currently in the process of activating two new facilities. First, we are currently expanding our Red Rock Correctional Center in Arizona to 2,024, beds, adding approximately 400 beds, which is scheduled for completion in the fourth quarter 2016. As the existing facility has nearly 600 beds occupied under a pre-existing 1,000-bed contract, we began receiving inmates under a new 1,000-bed contract with the state of Arizona in July while the expansion construction is ongoing. As of today, we are housing 1,060 offenders at the facility. Upon completion of this $35 million to $38 million expansion, CCA will be under contract for a total of 2,000 beds with an occupancy guarantee of 90%.

Additionally, we are in the process ramping up operations at our Trousdale Turner Correction Center, a 2,552-bed facility in Tennessee, which opened in January. In May, we made the decision to temporarily pause the ramp of the inmate populations in collaboration with the Tennessee Department of Corrections, pushing the expected completion of the ramp, scheduled from the end of the second quarter into the third quarter. A safe and secure operational ramp is our number one priority, and reresumed the ramp of the inmate populations, only after we were satisfied that these priorities would be met. As of today, we're housing 1,972 offenders at this facility.

In New Mexico, during the second quarter, we were awarded a new contract as a successful responder to an RFP issued by the state. Due to changing partner needs, the inmate population at our New Mexico women's correctional facility will be transitioned to a male population in the coming months. To reflect the change of the facility’s mission, it has been renamed the Northwest New Mexico Correctional Center. The new contract for the male population has a heavy programmatic focus on offender reentry, which is further affirmation of the high-quality residential reentry service offering that CCA can provide.

As for real estate-only solutions, in May, we successfully negotiated a lease with the state of Oklahoma for our North Fork Correctional facility, which has been idled in November 2015 following the reduction in California's utilization of out-of-state beds. At 2,400 beds, North Fork was our largest vacant facility in our portfolio. The initial lease term is five years and the average annual rent during the initial term is $7.3 million, including annual rent in the fifth year of $12 million. The lease agreement includes unlimited two-year renewal options following the initial term, which will be based on the rent during the fifth year, plus an adjustment for CPI.

Given the state's significant budget shortfalls, due in large part to the persistent downturn in the oil and gas industry and its impact on the state’s economy, we worked with the state to develop a flexible solution, which allow the lease agreement to be budget neutral and the state’s current fiscal year that began on July 1, while the Department of Corrections utilizes the new capacity to realign their inmate populations and close older inefficient facilities. In addition, we recently signed an extension of our contracts with the state -- for the state, for our owned and managed Cimarron and Davis correctional facilities, which have 2 1-year renewal options remaining and our three Oklahoma residential facilities through June 30, 2017. We are proud of our long-standing and growing partnership with the State of Oklahoma and will pursue additional opportunities should they arise.

Staying with real estate-only solutions, during the quarter, we also announced a lease extension with California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation for our California City Correctional Center through November 30, 2020 with unlimited 2-year renewal options, which is indicative of the state's ongoing need for this type of in-state capacity solutions we can provide through this real estate-only model.

We also had multiple exciting developments in our residential reentry portfolio during the second quarter. In early April, we acquired CMI, or Correctional Management Incorporated, a residential reentry service provider, owning seven facilities, representing 605 beds in Colorado, which we discussed on our first quarter conference call in May. In June, we acquired a 112-bed residential reentry facility in Long Beach, California that is triple-net lease to Community Education Centers to provide residential reentry services for the State of California. Following these acquisitions, CCA owns or controls 25 residential reentry facilities in 6 states, representing approximately 5,000 beds.

Subsequent to the end of the second quarter, we received a new 120-bed contract award from California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation at our 120-bed CAI-Boston Avenue residential reentry facility that commenced on August 1. In anticipation of this new contract of California, we had previously consolidated resident populations from the Federal Bureau of Prisons that had been housed at the CAI-Boston Avenue facility in to our 483-bed CAI-Ocean View facility. The Ocean View facility continues to house resident population from the BOP and from the County of San Diego. The average compensated occupancy of the facility was only 65% during the first half of 2016. So the decision to consolidate BOP populations should lead to improve occupancy at the Ocean View facility. When coupled with the new contract at CAI-Boston Avenue, occupancy across the two CAI facilities is expected to increase and have a very positive impact to the cash flows generated under previous contractual arrangements.

As you can see from recent developments, we are executing on all three primary growth strategies, owned and managed facility growth, increasing the number of leased facilities providing real estate-only solutions and expanding our residential reentry platform. Each area for growth provides an opportunity for CCA to deliver a customized value proposition to address specific customer needs, while drawn on our core areas of expertise. We are having a number of discussions with potential partners that are looking for additional bed capacity, both in-state and out-of-state or are looking to replace dated capacity and we are well positioned to deliver meaningful solutions that will drive our future growth.

Now, before I turn the call over to Dave for a financial overview, I would like to provide a brief update on other recent business developments. Last week, we received word from the BOP that they intend not to renew our contract at the 1,129-bed Cibola County Correctional Center, which is set to expire on September 30 of 2016. Of course, we are disappointed with the Bureau's decision not to renew, but the federal inmate populations have declined by nearly 25,000 in the last three years, resulting in reduced overcrowding in BOP operated facilities. Today, the BOP is operating at approximately 117% of their rate of capacity, down from a roughly 140% three years ago. We are committed to work with the BOP through the transition of Cibola and continue to operate three additional correctional facilities on behalf of the BOP. Following the transfer of populations, we will idle this facility. We are actively marketing the facility and believe there are multiple potential partners that could utilize the facility to address needs within their correctional systems.

I would also like to provide an update on developments at our South Texas Family Residential Center. In the second quarter, Immigration and Customs Enforcement or ICE solicited proposals for one or more family residential centers for the housing and care of families. At the same time, ICE engaged CCA to consider modifying the contract for services currently performed at the South Texas Family Residential Center with the intent of identifying cost-reduction opportunities for ICE for both the various policy changes that have occurred since September of 2014, but also with the operation graduating from an emergency short-term requirement to a longer-term need.

As a reminder for our investors, ICE approached us in the summer of 2014 to deal with the unprecedented crisis that they were facing on the southern border with families from Central America crossing the U.S. border. So like FEMA, dealing with the natural disaster and working with the private sector, we were asked by ICE to get a residential center that was safe, humane and appropriate for these families up and running within 90 days. And we did that with a major investment of resources for this high-risk complex operation that must comply with significant amount of standards and regulations. The complexity, risk and compliance of various standards haven't changed for this center, but there have been some adjustments to the operational requirements and also the emergency nature of the operation has dissipated that makes it for cost savings. So that is where we find ourselves today and we take it as a positive sign for the continued need of this center by ICE engaging us now.

As mentioned in the press release, contract discussions with ICE are in preliminary stages and therefore, we are not in a position to comment on the potential impact of any modification to the existing contract. However, we continue to receive positive feedback from ICE on the quality of operations taken place at the center and we are well-positioned to provide a compelling proposal, given our strong operational track record and because the center is the only of its kind in the United States to be specifically designed for this unique mission.

I'd also like to provide an update on the litigation between the government and attorneys, representing a class of minors at ICE custody, including minors at our residential center in South Texas related to a 1997 settlement agreement, commonly referred to as the Flores settlement agreement. In July, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against most of the government's appeal, seeking to overturn the lower court's ruling that the stipulation set forth in the Flores settlement agreement should apply to ICE held minors and family residential centers. ICE has yet to publicly comment on their legal strategy related to this matter. However, there continued to be multiple avenues available to ICE to seek review of the court's decision.

But one important point on this recent development with this case. This ruling by no means, prohibits ICE from the housing of families at our South Texas Family Residential Center. It does require South Texas operation that has to comply with the Flores settlement agreement, which, during an influx of minors at the southern border, requires that ICE release minors expeditiously as possible. It's important to keep in mind that when ICE takes a minor, whether accompanied or not, into custody, ICE has important legal processes it has to complete to ensure the safety to both the minor and the public. These processing steps take time. We worked closely with ICE to streamline the operation so as to allow for shorter state by families. And to give you a sense of the short-term nature of the operation, the average length of stay at the Center for Families during the month of July was 11.2 days.

Additionally, as we discussed on first quarter conference call, we are actively pursuing a childcare license to be issued by the Texas Department of Family and Protective Services for our South Texas Family Residential Center following the completion of the rules promulgation process by the State of Texas during the first quarter. In early May, the state faced legal challenges to their authority to issue a child care license to family residential centers. On June 1, a Texas district court judge issued a temporary injunction prohibiting Texas Department of Family and Protective Services from issuing a childcare license to our South Texas Family Center.

As a result, a childcare license cannot be issued to our South Texas Family Residential Center until a full trial is held to evaluate the merits of the case and determine whether the state has the authority to license family residential centers. The trial is preliminarily scheduled to begin on September 26, 2016. And to be clear, this case does not concern ICE's ability to use the center to process and meet the urgent needs of apprehended families as it is currently doing with its clearances on keeping families together. As mentioned earlier, on the Flores settlement, during the influx of minors at the Southern Border, it requires that ICE releases minors as expeditiously as possible, which is the requirement today. However, licensor is of interest of ICE and we will work with them towards the goal of obtaining their license.

Finally, going back to California. Dave is going to highlight our current assumptions on California populations in his comments as it relates to our updated guidance. However, I did want to comment on a ballot initiative that is being evaluated by the voters in California this coming November. Called Prop 57 or the Public Safety and Rehabilitation Act of 2016, if passed, it would allow for the following. First, authorized parole consideration for people with nonviolent convictions who complete their full sentence for their primary offense. Second, have incentives for people in prison to encourage them to participate in and complete rehabilitation and education programs. Third, require the sector correction to certify that the regulation is implementing these policies, protect and enhance public safety. And finally, allow judges to decide whether youth as young as 14 years old should be tried as an adult.

The state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office or LAO, issued a report, which was released last week on Prop 57. Prop 57 would give significant leeway to CDCR Secretary and parole Board and how each implements the measures, so it's hard to be precise on actual impact. However, the LAO report put the approximate cost savings in the tens of millions of dollars annually on CDCR’s annual budget of $10.6 billion. And as a reminder, our facilities in Mississippi and Arizona are all sales housing versus dormitory housing. This type of housing is suitable for higher custody inmates, which has been very attractive to California since they are limited on this type of capacity within the state. In fact, the nearly 4,900 Californian inmates housed in our facilities in Mississippi and Arizona, over 85% of them are level 3 or level 4 inmates, which classifies them as medium security or higher custody.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Dave to cover our second quarter financial performance and review the primary drivers of our updated financial guidance for 2016. Dave?

David Garfinkle

Thank you, Damon, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, we generated $0.49 of EPS, compared to our May guidance range of $0.44 to $0.46, and $0.04 ahead of the first call consensus estimate. FFO totaled $0.69 per share, exceeding our May guidance range of $0.64 to $0.66. And AFFO totaled $0.65 per share, ahead of our May guidance range of $0.61 to $0.63. Per share results exceeded expectations, largely due to stronger revenue driven by higher-than-anticipated inmate populations across numerous facilities as well as revenue from the new lease with the state of Oklahoma at our North Fork Correctional Center we announced in May 6. As in the first quarter, federal revenue was particularly strong in the southwest during the second quarter. Financial results for the quarter exceeded expectations, even though they fell short of expectations by $0.01 per share at our newly constructed Trousdale Turner Correctional Center. As we generated $0.01 per share of net operating income in the facility but had forecasted $0.02 per share during the quarter. We began the ramp of the 2,552-bed trial sale facility in January and expected the ramp to be completed by the end of the second quarter. However, with the support of our government partner, we paused the ramp during the second quarter to help ensure a safe and orderly operational activation according to our standards. We resumed the ramp last month and now expect the ramp to be complete by the end of the third quarter 2016. Nevertheless, our forecast reflects certain incremental expenses associated with start up operations continuing into the fourth quarter of 2016. As a result, we don't expect normalized operations until the first quarter of 2017. The pause in ramp and higher start up expenses, which are very difficult to predict for a facility ramp of this size resulted in a reduction to our full year guidance of approximately $0.05 per share compared with the guidance we issued last quarter.

The most significant factors affecting the second quarter results compared with the prior year quarter include the decline in inmate populations from the State of California, refinancings short-term debt with long-term debt in the third quarter of 2015, higher depreciation primarily resulting from placing into service our new Trousdale facility and the previously-announced termination of the contract with the Federal Bureau of Prisons at our Northeast Ohio Correctional Center effective May 31, 2015. The decline in California populations which were consistent with our projections had the largest impact of these items and contributed to a reduction in per-share results by about $0.06 from the prior-year quarter. The negative financial impact of these events was partially offset by a full quarter of operations at our South Texas Family Residential Center which completed ramping up during the second quarter in the prior year. Increased populations from the activation of our new Otay Mesa Detention Center in the fourth quarter of 2015, and acquisitions totaling $214 million for 23 residential reentry centers between the end of the second quarter 2015 and the end of the second quarter 2016.

Our balance sheet remains strong with leverage of 3.5 times and fixed charge coverage of 7.2 times using trailing 12 months. At June 30, we had $71 million of cash on hand and $446 million of availability on our $900 million revolving bank credit facility and no debt maturities until 2020. As we mentioned last quarter, in February, we put in place an at the market equity distribution program, which is a popular vehicle used by REITs and other companies to efficiently raise equity capital from time to time. We believe the program, commonly known as an ATM program is a perfect tool to match fund proceeds with M&A activity and other capital needs in order to manage our capital allocation strategy. We target a leverage ratio between 3 and 4 times, and have operated within this range or lower over the past decade. Although we have modest capital expenditure commitments, we continue to pursue M&A activity and have an active pipeline as Damon mentioned in his remarks.

As our leverage increases to fund these opportunities, the ATM program is available for managing our targeted leverage ratios. We do not utilize the ATM during the first or second quarters. For the remainder of 2016, the only substantial capital commitment we have is for the expansion of our 1,596-bed Red Rock Correctional Center, pursuant to a new contract that was awarded in late December 2015 from the State of Arizona for an additional 1,000 inmates. As we have approximately 1,000 inmates at the facility pursuant to a pre-existing contract with Arizona, we are expanding the design capacity of the facility to 2,024 beds at estimated total cost of $35 million to $38 million, including additional space for inmate reentry programming and support services. We have invested $22.8 million in this expansion through the end of the second quarter. Construction is expected to be completed later in the fourth quarter of 2016, although we began receiving inmates under the new contract last month and expect the ramp to last through January 2017.

Moving next to a further discussion of our guidance. As indicated in the press release, adjusted EPS guidance for the full year is a range of $1.85 to $1.89, up from $1.81 to $1.87 from our May guidance, while Q3 adjusted EPS guidance is a range of $0.47 to $0.48. Full-year normalized FFO per share guidance is a range of $2.64 to $2.68, up from $2.60 to $2.66 from our May guidance. And full-year AFFO per share guidance is $2.53 to $2.57 compared with $2.53 to $2.59 from our May guidance. No debt because the cash flow from the new lease with Oklahoma at our North Fork facility is currently lower than the amount of straight-line revenue recognized under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, the impact of this lease to AFFO is lower than the amount flowing through net income and FFO. The impact is included and can be seen in our calculation of AFFO presented in the supplemental disclosure report. This cash flow adjustment flips and the adjustment to AFFO will be more than the impact to net income and FFO beginning in 2018 when cash rents exceed the amount of revenue under GAAP reporting. Our updated guidance reflects Q2 B offset by a $0.04 cents reduction to our previous guidance to the second half of the year at the Trousdale facility.

Our FFO and EPS guidance also includes $0.03 during the second half of the year for the new lease with the state of Oklahoma that was executed after we issued our prior guidance. Our guidance also includes $0.01 reduction in the fourth quarter for the nonrenewal of the contract with the BOP at our Cibola County Correction Center, which was not in our previous guidance.

As a reminder, our guidance also includes start up expenses incurred during the second half of $0.01 to $0.02 per share so the ramp of the new contract at our Red Rock facility, which has always been in our guidance. We are projecting continued stable inmate populations from the State of California, averaging a little under 5,000 inmates remainder of the year. This projection is consistent with the state final budget approved in June and updated report of inmate population projections released by the state in January and is unchanged from our prior forecast. Average daily inmate populations from California were 4,900 during the second quarter of 2016, which, as I mentioned, was consistent with our forecast and is comparable to the average during the first quarter.

As a reminder, we have a contract with the State of California for up to 6,562 out-of-state inmates, expiring June 30, 2019, should they have the need for additional inmates over that time period. The contract includes renewal options to extend beyond the expiration by mutual agreement. During the second quarter, we also extended the lease with California for our in-state California City facility to November 2020, two years longer than the lease provided, in exchange for up to $4 million of certain facility and other tenant improvements. The extension also provides California with a unilateral right to extend the lease for two additional two-year periods through November 30, 2024, with indefinite two-year renewal options thereafter upon mutual agreement. Our full-year guidance includes total of $0.02 to $0.03 per share generated for the acquisition of CMI completed on April 8th, and of the Long Beach Community Correction Center completed on June 10. Although we continue to pursue a number of attractive investment opportunities, particularly in the reentry space, our guidance does not include any new M&A activity beyond these acquisitions. The magnitude and timing of our M&A activities is difficult to predict and therefore, we'll update our guidance on a quarterly basis if and when we successfully complete such transactions.

Our guidance does not include any new contract awards are contract losses beyond those previously announced. Our guidance also does not include the impact of any modification to our contract at the South Texas Family Residential Center, which as Damon mentioned, we are discussing with ICE. We continue to work with ICE to reduce their cost of the contract and address policy changes they have implemented since the beginning of the contract. It would be inappropriate to elaborate any further while those discussions are ongoing and we do not know when such changes would become effective. Finally, last quarter, we were awaiting new regulations from the Department of Labor that would increase the total compensation required to exempt employees from qualifying for overtime. Those regulations which increase the number of employees eligible for overtime pay, were issued in May. We are currently in the process of determining the impact of new regulations will have on our payroll cost, but it is not expected to be material in 2016 as the effective date is not until December 1, 2016. Once again, we have provided EBITDA guidance in our press release, which enables you to calculate our estimated effective tax rate of approximately 5% and provide you with our estimate of total depreciation and interest expense for both third quarter and full year. We expect G&A expenses to be slightly more than 5.5% of total revenue.

I will now turn the call back to Damon for closing comments before opening the lines for questions.

Damon Hininger

Thanks Dave, and thank you again for calling in today's conference call, and let me now turn the call over to the operator for a question-and-answer session.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Michael Kodesch with Canaccord. Please go ahead.

Michael Kodesch

Hi. Good morning, guys, and thanks for taking my question. Also really appreciate all the color on what's going on in South Texas, and Family Residential. First of all, just a clarification on guidance. For your Cibola County contract that was lost, in guidance, are you guys assuming that that FFO contribution there is just kind of loss on September 30 or do you have some kind of other - what's the ramp down of that?

Damon Hininger

No, that's correct. That contract has an occupancy guarantee, and we're right now modeling the nonrenewal effective September 30. So vacant facility for all of Q4, and that was $0.01 for the quarter, for the forecast.

Michael Kodesch

Okay, that's really helpful. And then on that contract, what's the annual FFO impact, I'm sorry if I missed that.

Damon Hininger

Is about a $0.04 impact. So our $0.01 per share in the fourth quarter is pretty representative for our full year.

Michael Kodesch

Okay, and then just my last question here. Just kind of with all of the other recent residential re-entry acquisitions that you've been doing. What percent of EBITDA exposure are you kind of at now relative to the total portfolio on that residential re-entry piece?

Damon Hininger

Yes, for the second quarter, it was about $5 million or about 4.5%, a little bit more than 4.5% of our total adjusted EBITDA.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll go next to Tobey Sommer with SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Tobey Sommer

With respect to the South Texas in ICE business, what you can comment on the outcomes? Do you have an expectation as far as a timeline either the solicited proposals or the outcome of your existing business with ICE in this regard?

Damon Hininger

Toby, this is Damon. So the procurement required for [indiscernible] submitted on July 15, so we've met that timetable and they've got our proposal in hand. As it relates to kind of final negotiations of an agreement, it's really hard to say today when that would be ramped up. Conversations are ongoing as we speak. So I think the progress in the month of August, but I couldn't necessarily circle a date and then we hope to get completions of those discussions.

Tobey Sommer

But it's a relatively near-term thing. Is it a kind of solicitation that doesn't necessarily go to a formal RFP afterwards, but is kind of done through our alternative intergovernmental type transaction?

Damon Hininger

Two parallel paths here. So they did a procurement, basically, open it up, solicited proposals, we participated in that process. Our view on that was they were trying to really kind of open it up the see what other opportunities out there to help services requirement. And then they also -- on's the second path engages directly. And those conversations are ongoing today. So again, through the process that were undertake with them, we really haven’t circled a date, and they haven’t circled a date, and hope we can conclude those discussions, but they are ongoing. So it is, I'd say, maybe a little more to your question, it's a little more I think on a faster paced conversation than maybe in a typical procurement process.

Tobey Sommer

Could you update us on Car 16, and your current view of what the timing of that might be this year?

Damon Hininger

Yes. So being first week of August and most of our - most of the contract issue stay in this procurement is a reminder, it was advertised for 10,800 beds, we have the lowest quantity of the total. I think Geo has got over 60%, MTC has got about 2,000 beds and we've got 1,400, 1,500 beds up for rebid. So we've got the smallest of the total. The most of the contract, ours included, expire first or second quarter 2017. So to your question, we think a decision could happen, potentially third quarter maybe it slips into the fourth quarter, but we think a decision is probably likely in that timetable since most of these contracts expire early next year.

Tobey Sommer

Is Charlesdale, kind of, what you described about the pause, is that generally a function of the national economy just being so strong?

Damon Hininger

That's exactly right. So we spent a lot of time, like we do for any new activation, understanding labor market, understanding kind of what the dynamics are good, bad and different. And Toby, you know the national area, it's just has been a very hot market here, locally with the Davidson County and City of Nashville. So that has had some ripple effects to the labor market where travel turn rate is located. So we are on that. We had constant conversations with Tennessee Department of Corrections and we felt it's appropriate to hit the pause button on the ramp, which they were extremely supportive because we're both aligned to the fact that we want a safe and secure facility through the ramp-up period. So with that, we worked through that process, put a couple of things in place to help with the labor market recruitment, and it felt like probably about late June, we are in a really, really good place to go ahead and start to ramp back up with Tennessee.

Tobey Sommer

On the California ballot initiative, I guess, any kind of color you can give there about an expectation for a potential impact or how the CDCR may interpret and implement this? And maybe you can contextualize it for us with a historical ballot initiatives, is this the kind of thing we don't really learn until after it either passes or grow up, until after it passes, if it does?

Damon Hininger

Yes. Absolutely. A couple of good questions there. So as I said in my remarks, the State of California, they've got a $10.6 billion budget. And with the LAO coming out with their report, saying it's in the tens of millions of dollars, so that means either $10 million or maybe up to $100 million, that's obviously a pretty small percentage of the total overall budget. So that's I guess one way to look at it. The second is that we think about potential impact on our operations, as I was trying to provide a little color there in my remarks, we've got two facilities that are all sale, very secure facilities that are suitable for medium security or maximum security inmates. And as I think, Toby, that has been a real premium for capacity for that type of capacity, I should say, within the state of California. So with Prop 47 focused primarily, really almost exclusively for non-violent convictions. And with that number from LAO saying, it's only tens of millions of dollars impact on a $10.6 billion budget for CDCR is and also no one in our capacity is very complimentary for some of the challenges they have for in-state for higher custody inmates. Impact, you can’t stay definitively, but impact appears it could be fairly minimal.

Tobey Sommer

And then do you think - you have a lot of conversations on the real estate-only solutions, and you've had some transactions be consummated. Do you - at this point, would you expect to be able to consummate another opportunity over the next year?

Damon Hininger

Yes. Yes, we got a really good conversations with state and local jurisdictions. Getting a couple across the finish line like Cal City and North Fork are very helpful. So we're not just talking about it in concept, but we could actually point to California and Oklahoma saying this is proof-of-concept, and here are the reasons why we were successful in those locations and why it's been very, very helpful for them. And so having those where we've got that in our kind of marketing book talked to other jurisdictions has very helpful. So I’d say, we feel good about the prospect and getting another one across the finish line here in the next 12 months.

Tobey Sommer

My last question, Dave, you mentioned the overtime rules and how it doesn't have much of an impact and won't come into effect until end of the year. Is there any way to gauge an annual impact on '17?

David Garfinkle

Yes, not yet, Toby. We're going through that analysis right now. We've engaged an outside consultant to help us. It's a lot of data and a lot of sensitivity analysis, what ifs, there's a lot of strategies to deploy about what you do with compensation amounts. Whether they pull them up to the new threshold or try to deal with issues on how much overtime people will work. So at this point, it's too early to say. We should have a better sense in the upcoming quarters.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Andrew Berg with Post Advisory Group.

Andrew Berg

Two questions. One, just going back to South Texas. Can you comment at all whether as part of the negotiations the thought process is to potentially adjust compensation but also extend the contract for a longer period of time?

Damon Hininger

Yes, I think that's all part of the - that’s definitely is all part of the conversation. So yes, that's a little bit to my point earlier about back in 2014 when they approached us, they were definitely focused on dealing with the crisis on the border. And so I think they were thinking short-term. And with that, I want to get something up and running really quickly. We take it as an encouraging sign that they've come out now with the procurement, but they've engaged and that they're looking towards the future of having this requirement longer-term.

Andrew Berg

And with respect to [indiscernible], can you provide any color? I mean, regarding the potential revenue or EBITDA impact. Is it safe to just look at the [indiscernible] and apply it towards that facility and that's the potential loss, which the grand scheme of things, seems like it's not a tremendously negative impact on you guys?

Damon Hininger

That's a fair statement and as I mentioned earlier, it's probably about $0.04 per year.

Operator

And gentlemen, it appears we have no further questions. I'll return the floor to you for any additional or closing remarks.

Damon Hininger

All right, very good. Well thank you so much for participating in today's call and as always to our investors, thank you so much for your investment within CCA, and we look forward to giving you update a little later in the year. Thank you.

Operator

And this will conclude today's program. Thanks for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.

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