Injection Forecast For Next Week - Natural Gas Daily

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Summary

We anticipate an injection figure around +20 Bcf.

Finalized estimates will come out next Tuesday.

August temperatures look much more mild than those from July.

EIA reported a -6 Bcf injection figure yesterday, which was -1 Bcf lower than our expectation of -5 Bcf. Be sure to read our summary of the storage figures here. We anticipate another low injection figure for next week's report. It definitely won't be a storage draw, but relative to historical standards, it's very low. We are anticipating a +20 Bcf to 23 Bcf. Our estimates are coming in below the average and toward the lower end once again.

If storage injection comes in at +20 Bcf, it would result in storage of 3.308 Tcf and reduce the surplus to 333 Bcf over last year's level. The same week last year saw builds of +65 Bcf and +57 Bcf for the five-year average.

Power burn this week was much lower than last week averaging over 36 Bcf/d. U.S. gas production remains resilient, as we highlighted yesterday. Canadian gas imports all week never went over 7 Bcf/d or even got close to it. Imports averaged around 6.3 Bcf/d, but with U.S. gas production hitting a five-month high, it offset the decrease.

Overall, August injection figures aren't being revised lower as temperature models predict a much milder outlook. With U.S. gas production staying resilient, it's alarming going into September and October. At least natural gas producers aren't bringing on new rigs as Baker Hughes (BHI) reported that gas related rig counts declined by five this week to 81. Drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) are currently being used to prop up production, but we should start to see declines in the coming months as the decline rates catch up to overall production.

Eight- to 14-Day Outlook

Natural Gas Prices

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