Cooler Temperature Forecasts For August - Natural Gas Daily

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Model runs show much cooler temperatures for the middle of August.

Natural gas prices are seeing weakness on the back of higher injection revisions.

We anticipate Canadian gas imports to dramatically increase over the coming weeks.

Model runs yesterday had mid-August temperature forecasts bullish. Here's a look at NOAA's 8-14 Day yesterday versus today's forecast.



Yes, we understand that NOAA forecasts aren't good representation on power burn demand, but this gives a rough picture of what the models are showing. Injection figures for the week of August 26th was revised lower, but after the new updates, we think it will be revised back up.

EIA will release storage report tomorrow, and we expect an injection figure of +24 Bcf. The following week will see 30+ injection figures again as power burn demand so far this week has averaged below 35 Bcf/d. US gas production remains resilient and showing no signs of slowing down. Canadian gas imports jumped back above 6 Bcf/d and now sits around 6.4 Bcf/d. We said yesterday that AECO basis differential recently increased. Well, AECO really took a hit yesterday falling by over C$0.49/Mcf, which has spiked AECO basis differential to over C$2.04/Mcf. If prices stay around here, we think Canadian gas imports would rally to 8+ Bcf/d.

A combination of bearish weather forecasts and storage concerns in Canada has resulted in the recent weakness, but as the differential widens, more of Canada's gas will be exported into the US.

Mexico gas exports have averaged 3.6 Bcf/d, down from the 3.9 Bcf/d we saw at the end of July. LNG export has averaged less than 1 Bcf/d this week.

Overall, the current outlook is setting up for a 30+ Bcf injection next week with a mid-20 injection report this week. Our estimates could be revised upwards if there's any surprise from Canada.

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