National Bank of Canada's (NTIOF) CEO Louis Vachon Presents at Scotia Bank Financials Summit (Transcript)

| About: National Bank (NTIOF)

National Bank of Canada (OTCPK:NTIOF) Scotia Bank Financials Summit September 7, 2016 12:50 PM ET

Executives

Louis Vachon - President and CEO

Unidentified Company Representative

I want to start by welcoming to the stage Mr. Louis Vachon, President and Chief Executive Officer of the National Bank. Louis has been with National for 24 years over two terms, I think it's fair to say and has been CEO since June 2007. Sir?

Louis Vachon

Always a pleasure likewise.

Unidentified Company Representative

Thanks for being here. So I don't know if it's the weather or if it's the stocks rolling along, I don't know what it is, but it's been an optimistic tone to start the presentations today and especially because a year ago, at this time if I look back at my notes, it was all what's energy going to do and what's going to happen. The optimistic tone has been in the sense that, we spent a lot of time thinking about what can go wrong with this sector, especially post the crisis, could be housing, could be energy, could be capital, could be all three. Yet, we sit here with nine months through the year on track for the sector to have another year of record EPS and obviously the stocks have done well. What do you think it is from your perspective as Chief Executive, maybe taking sometimes a bigger picture view than guys like me might? What do we underestimate or under-appreciate about this sector as a whole and its resilience, and obviously specific to your institution?

Louis Vachon

Well, any good markets as you know, always climbs a wall of worries, so we've had a lot to climb and that's why I think fundamentally, the market is reacting to that. One thing generally I would say that the street underestimates and I think both the buy side and the sell side is the capacity to use technology as an opportunity, as an enabler to improve customer service and to improve efficiency across the board and the industry. I think people realize that there is an IT revolution, I think people are focused somewhat partly on the threat from FinTech and other players on the banks, but are probably not given enough focus or comparative analysis to what's been done, already been done in other jurisdictions in terms of driving efficiency and to improve profitability. And I think generally, and in banks, I think people underestimate how much we can use technology to improve efficiency and customer service. I think that would be generally over the mid-term and we can debate, yeah, you are exaggerating oil and gas losses and so forth, but over as a fundamental three to five year trend, independent of the economic cycle and I would argue, and we've seen that in Europe and other jurisdiction, as the economic cycle got tougher, the speed of change in terms of technology and processes, has accelerated. So that would be my main point on that front.

Unidentified Company Representative

All right. We are going to delve into that little bit more and marry that with some of your efficiency conversation that you've shared with the Street, but I feel like we have to look back, I haven't talked that much about energy this morning, but I do want to bring it up with you and I want to do it first off, and more strategically. In May, the bank opted to book a large sectoral provision for its energy exposure. It's not a move that we see often from this sector to carve out one area of the business and say, you know what, we think this is the right move to make. Just again from a high-level perspective, what was your thinking in this regard that this is the right thing for National Bank to do?

Louis Vachon

Basically, we looked at the exposure we had and our exposure was not geographical. I mean, many of our peers had significantly larger exposure, generally across-the-board. Consumer, commercial exposure to the oil, let's call them the oil regions of Canada. As you know, for many reasons, we had little exposure to end consumers and other commercial sectors. When we looked specifically, our exposure was to the noninvestment grade oil and gas producer sector in Canada. So I'm talking about one country, one industry, one segment. So if our exposure had been broader to commercial lending in Alberta or in Saskatchewan, if it had been broader even in an industry perspective, maybe we said, okay, we will increase the general provisions and so forth. But it was highly specific to one sub-segment of a market, one we specialize in and we've been very good at for long time. And that's why we felt that if we excluded that and dealt with this, it would give a better reflection of what the reality was, in terms of PCS and National Bank and I think we feel validated because excluding the transfer to the sectoral last quarter, our norm losses was 17 basis points in Q2 and it was 14 basis points in Q3. So that's why we decided to go in that direction.

Unidentified Company Representative

And was this a scenario, we'll wrap it up here and move onto other stuff, but was this a scenario that I just want to take a charge that's big enough so that the market knows or sorry, not charge, I want to setup an allowance that’s large enough so the market knows even in a worse-case scenario, we have adequately provided for this issue, and it's now not a national issue.

Louis Vachon

I think that was another, we needed to address that. Now, my answer was, why did we do the sectoral versus the general provision, but, underlining that, you are absolutely right, if you recall, we had an interesting Q2 call and I think there was discussion back and forth and we felt we needed to address this thing and we did.

Unidentified Company Representative

All right. So credit, I don't know, I'm going to knock on wood, I don't think I have to. I think we are okay. We will go with it. Let's forget about the credit. I want to talk about the growth. National Bank for as long as I've known you has talked about building out its capabilities in the oil patch through commercial lending, obviously, you've made a lot of money on the investment banking side over a decade, which is something we shouldn't forget just from looking at the size of the provisions, because the investment banking revenue is a lot more than that, I'm interested that in your commercial loan growth data in Canada, you kind of called out growth would be a lot better if it wasn't for this oil and gas piece, are you effectively telling us that this, which was an area of growth for a long time, is now going to be an area that limits your growth going forward?

Louis Vachon

I think it is backward looking, it certainly had an impact as we've - that segment has declined. I think we made a sectoral decision in terms of disclosure four years ago, which we now live with is that, we put the oil and gas commercial business into the P&C commercial and lending, the personal and commercial side. And now, it impacts our P&C numbers. So you live by your decisions. What we stated, I think Bill said that quite clearly, and I want to reinforce it, I think we've seen the decline in oil and gas balances, I think we are getting to how long we want to decline either this quarter or next quarter, we see opportunity to deploy capital, we've repositioned ourselves because we feel the patch will be a different patch going forward.

There will be probably fewer players, there will be new players and the new players will be larger than they used to be. And more diversified and with more resilient balance sheets and we've made the adjustments accordingly. But now we see the M&A pipeline continue to be active, our investment banking business continues to be very strong, as evidenced by the Birchcliff deal that we lead not too long ago. So we're now in a position of deploying capital, and I think what's going to happen and we've consistently done that, but I think what's going to happen is over the next few quarters, the loan balances in the oil and gas segment will start going up again and that headwind, if you want to call it, it was a headwind for a few quarters, the headwind in the stats in terms of loan growth will go away.

Unidentified Company Representative

I think you touched on it there, but I just want to make sure of this, you are right in the near term, a very good source of business has been the equity issue to help pay down the line of credit or the loan outstanding, which certainly helps the banks in two ways. It can also lead to some difficult conversations with your clients in that business when they are forced, maybe forced is too strong of a word, but when they have to do a dilutive equity deal to make good other lending commitments, do you still feel that your relationship with the oil patch is sufficient for that business or that sector remain a key part of your investment banking franchise?

Louis Vachon

I am very confident on that point. So I think generally, and as you know, there has been three areas of continuing contact in business, the lending being one, investment being the other. And the third one frankly, also has been very good for us is the oil and gas hedging, the commodity hedging activity and so we have multiple points of contacts and one thing we've done very well on the wholesale side of the business for the last ten years has been cross selling and usually, lending client is a good hedging client and also tends to be an investment banking client. So, we will continue on that front.

Unidentified Company Representative

I was of the view that for most of the last 18 months, the two key issues that were an overhang on National shares were, a, the energy exposure which you dealt with and, b, was the consistently low capital ratio of the bank. Now, we've talked about in the past where maybe some of it was, frankly, bad luck that I think after you did the deal with TD, there were some changes in the rules. So forgetting about what happened in the past, you communicated to the market, you wanted to get to 10 by late 2017, you told us that three months ago, obviously, the numbers this quarter looked a lot better even with the transaction closing. It sounds like you could be there as soon as the end of the year. The only caveat would be a lot of your larger peers are now closer to 10.5%, I don't want to make this an arm's raise on capital, but when you're thinking about management of that ratio, I know you're going to get to 10 first, but is there a level you feel like you have to be at prior to moving into deployment stage to at least be on par with where some of your larger competitors now stand?

Louis Vachon

Just to reiterate what we said on the call, we said that we would get to, we feel comfortable we would get to 10% or above by Q1 2017. So we sort of move forward in one quarter, we move forward by three, which is like, I guess the right direction. Let me be very clear, we had this great hypothesis, and theory that because we were superregional bank, National Bank could be lower in terms of Tier 1 ratio than our peers because we had only one regulator, namely our Canadian regulator to satisfy whereas some of our peers had US regulator, large operation and as you know, we are moving more to a world of self-standing capital. So that was my theory that we could be below the industry average. It was a great theory, I convinced myself, my wife and my two kids, but that's about many people, I've convinced.

So, I come from the trading side of the business, so there is only so many times I want to bang my head against the wall. So we are going to get to 10 ASAP and then we're going to move to something of the industry average. And I think we will close that gap and then we will start arguing about that point. And then once we get to that, and then I think we will have a discussion as to what we do with the excess capital and that will be a much more pleasant conversation to have on how quickly you are going to get there. So that's basically where we are seeing today.

Unidentified Company Representative

You can’t find the tape is what you’re telling me, being on par with your, I guess it's fair to say your DSIB peers is the right place to be?

Louis Vachon

Yes, that's correct.

Unidentified Company Representative

And the second part of this, the term that we've heard quite often of late in the sector and we are going to hear from the life insurers tomorrow too, one of them has brought it up, balance sheet optimization, or balance sheet repurposing. I think we've all learned over the last two years that the capital ratios can be affected by many macro factors and pension has been the one we've heard the most about lately, but you can have RWA inflation. Obviously based on credit quality, FX moments, it does seem though, that the industry is now proactively starting to manage the balance sheet in a tighter way, market risk has been one of the big factors, can you discuss from National's perspective and obviously your capital build this quarter was the strongest we've seen in quite some time, extra the deal, what levers is National pulling to free up some of the RWA and is there a corresponding impact on revenue, especially on the capital markets side?

Louis Vachon

We are not starving or reducing significantly capital allocated, we've always had and we are always requesting the use of balance sheet, particularly for certain businesses that have lower margins, but that's -- Ricardo has done a very good job on the wholesale side going many years on that. So effectively what happened this year, this last quarter is that some of the headwinds that we got in the previous, particularly unavailable for sales became tailwinds, so we recouped some of that capital. So fundamentally, I'm working on the basis that on a normal quarter, we tend to, after dividend, tend to and allocating capital to organic growth that we continue to encourage, we continue to generate 15 to 20 basis points of excess capital on a quarter to quarter basis, and that's how we plan to get to the industry average and then move on from there.

There is always some movements here and there in terms of things and AFS or the pension fund, the pension fund was more a headwind last quarter as you know. But net-net, I think we are not starving, we are not making significant reduction in capital or any of the businesses and because we feel that just by maintaining a high level of ROE and grow profitability that will get to where we need to get with our starving businesses. We don't have right now as I said, as you know, we've taken a pause in terms of new international investments and there is not a lot of things going on the M&A front, we have no interest at this stage on the J&P Richardson asset, we are not in that process and nor do we intend to join it. So the excess capital right now is really to - allocated to organic growth first, and then building up to, our capital to what I've said in terms of target.

Unidentified Company Representative

From an earnings perspective, the two engines of this company's growth for a long time have been the PNC Bank and financial markets, so I think they are roughly equal in terms of overall contribution. PNC is one where in my view, this bank has hit above its weight for a long time in the sense that there has always been views, Quebec centric bank, not enough scale, yet your operating leverage and overall revenue growth numbers have consistently been lying with peers, hasn’t been the case in the very recent past, a couple of points to make commercial loan growth, lower, you touched on where some of the energy numbers could be affecting that.

But also on the mortgage side, it's a bit strange when you look at them, when you break down the geographic mix, it seems like you've been growing quite strongly still in British Columbia and Ontario, but in your home market of Quebec, that's where the growth has really dropped off. I know we're all parsing these numbers very carefully as I say, we've taken care of energy, so we need something to worry about now, right, so maybe you can explain that dichotomy as to where your mortgage growth is coming from and why in the absolute, it's lower than it has been in quite some time?

Louis Vachon

I think still in terms of retail lending, I think we compare well in terms of volume growth to our peers.

Unidentified Company Representative

Industry average, but you have decelerated as well.

Louis Vachon

Yeah. A little bit. There has not been certainly, I want to reassure everybody, we are not disengaging ourselves from Quebec. But I think what's happening is, we are making some choices in terms of channels. We are still active in the third-party mortgage broker, but being a little bit more selective there. So there has been some selection - some decisions made on the channels. And frankly, as you know, mortgage lending growth has been a lot higher in Ontario and BC versus Quebec. So we're just reacting to macro trends. The Vancouver market there, the growth has been mostly in insured and mortgages and we are going from an extremely slow, small base. So I'm not particularly concerned, I think we can sustain a bit of growth in BC and I think we will be fine and still very much within our risk controls and risk parameters.

Ontario has been a good area for growth for us, it has been for a number of years as you know, and there, we've expanded our own mobile sales force and we've expanded our distribution network. So we continue to grow in Ontario and I think we monitor very carefully like everyone else, what's going on in some of the segments of the market and we have to be a little bit careful, but generally I think we've been in that market for a long time and we’re very happy with the performance we've seen in the different cohorts and in mortgage lending, so we will continue to address that.

Unidentified Company Representative

Usage of the third-party broker channel has been one of the few areas of differentiation between the banking sector in Canada and how they have decided to use distribution, obviously a lot have pressed for home capital last year with some of the challenges they had in that regard, OSFI’s December update essentially said, we are very interested in monitoring practices through this channel, how if at all, has the bank adjusted its origination criteria, first off, within that channel and secondly on a geographic perspective, you were quite vocal earlier this summer, or maybe late in the spring about some of the risks that you saw in the housing market on the whole?

Louis Vachon

We did, but I think generally we are looking at risk considerations. Our view is more long-term strategic in a sense that we feel that, and then relative near future that online origination of mortgages will be a fourth distribution segment. So right now, there is in branch, mobile sales force, third-party mortgage brokers and then a fourth distribution channel, which is direct online, either through an aggregator or on a direct basis is becoming. And where we are putting a lot of emphasis because we know how complete end to end [indiscernible] processing and mortgages, the only piece we are missing is online origination and mortgages and we feel that we can be an early adopter in that particular space, and we feel that over time, it's going to be as attractive, if not more attractive for us as a new origination channel than the traditional third-party brokers market.

So that's in that segment that we are looking at and I'm looking just passed the cyclical and the credit cyclical issues, but more to long-term strategic and long-term technology issues and we see that moving and I think it's that market, the mortgage market in terms of origination will change quite a bit over the next few years, there is no doubt about that.

Unidentified Company Representative

So I want to touch on one more, and then we get to the technology efficiency piece. Just staying with your PNC revenue, obviously it's a key area that the market is focused on, we've discussed some of the loan growth factors, I don't want to, if it's getting too specific here, you will let me know, but the fee income in the last couple of quarters has looked noticeably weak, some of the banks will have a piece of their wealth management business that goes through there, your wealth revenue growth has been somewhat softer, of late, I don't know if that's the answer.

And what I really want to tie this into is, we had a PNC Investor Day from National, not too long ago, you gave some pretty interesting size growth targets, which have been softer of late, big efficiency target, maybe give us an idea, short-term, what's been the issue with fee income, is that something that has legs and then how do we translate to get back to that medium-term path that drives the mix in the segment, lower by, I believe it's 200 to 400 basis points?

Louis Vachon

So let's start with the Investor Day, in terms of the efficiency ratio, I think we have given at that time for PNC, an improvement about $95 million of cost over the next three years, and I think it was 44 million is the target for this year. We are very much on target for that. So we are in line in terms of cost and efficiency. Where we've seen more volatility is, as you know, in terms of our personal and commercial banking, we are overweight commercial banking compared to our peers. So that means that fee income related to commercial banking and FX or derivatives also related to commercial lending impacts the other income segment.

That causes more volatility, no doubt about that. The quarter to quarter, on a year-on-year basis, was tough, because we had actually a reduction in insurance income, because last year we had an increase in national reserves and we did not have that this year, but generally I think on a relative basis, over the next few quarters, we should see an improvement in the underlying income segment. That being said, I think we've seen that over time we have a bit more volatility in our other income, because we are overweight in commercial lending.

Unidentified Company Representative

And that's lumpier by nature?

Louis Vachon

That is correct.

Unidentified Company Representative

Okay. So any efficiency comment I'm making has more to do with the revenue side?

Louis Vachon

That's correct. As I said, on the cost side, we are tracking pretty much to exactly to what we've said earlier.

Unidentified Company Representative

So at that PNC Investor Day, I thought, and that's obviously become more of the sign of times, you've spent a lot of time in talking about how you are changing your distribution relationship with customers, the investments that you are making in the business and at the same time, areas where you can take cost out, maybe you can share with us a couple of examples as to how technology has improved your customer relationship or customer capture model. If I can put it that way for National Bank?

Louis Vachon

Sure. One of the areas we are deploying right now, we are deploying a new version of our CRM and we made a decision to deploy in the call center first and there, we've had obviously more proactive using our data mining and business intelligence, we've had more proactive and highly targeted outbound calls and we've had campaigns with, as you know any campaign with more than 5% success rate is a great campaign, we've had campaigns with 13%, 14% success rates. So that shows the power of technology and business intelligence. The reason one, the reasons we use the call center first is that we want to make sure that we get the multichannel experience right. Most of our peers would deploy the new CRM in our branch network and their branch network. We decided to go the other way around, do it in the call center to make sure the coordination between the call center and the network, the physical network was really up to speed and so we're starting to do that, on the pilot project with 11 branches and that's working out very well.

In terms of referral, the two channels working together and we are deploying between now and March, we are deploying the CRM to all the other 440 branches across the network. So that's working very well. Another example has been in terms of efficiency is as I mentioned earlier, on the mortgage side, so now, you can in about 75% of the cases, you can either deal in branch or when a mortgage, a mobile mortgage development manager, mobile sales force, if you have all your documents, we will scan your documents, get an approval within the same day and you don't need to go ever again to see either the notary in Quebec or to get approval. You will get one meeting, one approval and straight through processing for the board. No one, to our knowledge does that in the industry right now.

The last piece we're looking to do now is to do that online. Now, you have to physically bring your documents or we can scan your documents. The next step will be to do it online and have this full straight through processing. So in terms of cost and efficiency, so our mortgage back-office is straight through processing, we have commercial and other unsecured, where we are doing a lot of work now, where digitization and automation has been deployed, so we still have room, we still see areas, low lying fruits that we feel we can get to those costs. That's why we are still comfortable, very much comfortable with the $95 million run rate target for three years that we've given at the investor day in terms of cost reduction.

Unidentified Company Representative

Now, late last year, perhaps to further some of these initiatives, you did take an $85 million restructuring charge, the bulk of which I think ran through PNC, it sounds like there is more work or more programs that you have underway from an investment spent perspective, is another restructuring charge required to keep that ability to drive operating leverage?

Louis Vachon

It's a good question to answer. Short-term, I don't know. We've used restructuring charges in the past and we’ll do so again, but I don't have any clear view as to immediate timing or not, but it is something we used in the past, and if we have to use it again, we will.

Unidentified Company Representative

Fair enough. We've got a few minutes left and it's a topic I think you've certainly been answering a lot in the last couple of years and we are going to be seeing you again in a couple of weeks.

Louis Vachon

Next week, September 16.

Unidentified Company Representative

September 16 for National's next Investor Day. So this is going to focus on your, let's call it your international segment, it's not completely called that yet, maybe soon enough. Let's just, let's go back high-level as we did on the comment on the sectoral, maybe you can remind the market or for those investors who haven't heard it from you, what your thinking was in building out or targeting a few areas of investment outside of your traditional, we’re a superregional bank in Canada footprint and what you're hoping to achieve with this business?

Louis Vachon

Two things. One is, we looked globally, where is the growth. The main challenge of not just the banks right now, but any businesses is where to get additional growth in a very mature market, at least in the OECD countries and we saw two major growth trends right now in the economy. One is anything to do with technology and the technology revolution to get the improvement or new customer access. And that's about 95% of our capital and 95% of our time is addressing the technology revolution as we discussed in all the other at investors day. The other major global trend in a global economy where there is real growth is the growth in the emerging economies. So we said, okay, we spend 95%, 100% of our time on the IT front, can we allocate a bit of time and capital to the other major growth trends. We are already in the US through the Credigy business, we like our specialty segment, we will discuss, that's going to be part of the discussion, we've been growing the Credigy segment now for close to ten years and having good and that gets us exposure to a segment to the US market.

From the pure banking standpoint, the growth rates globally are not in the US, the growth rates are in countries like Cambodia, where banking services are growing 20% to 30% per year with massively under banked, where debt to GDP is very low. So we said, okay, if we get to that, we need, however we had some expertise, we've dealt with Cuba and a few other jurisdictions for many years quite successfully, but to go to the next step of actually operating a business and a bank we need the expertise. So we said, we brought in a team, Yves Jacquot and a few other guys that you will meet next week and Yves already had expertise in Southeast Asia with his previous employer and one of the markets he focused on was Cambodia. So that's how we got to focus on ABA in Cambodia and everything else.

But fundamentally for us, it was a couple of strategic objectives we are looking to get it when we went more international. One was to get at the two, not just one, but the two largest growth trends out there right now in the global economy. Secondly, is to give us another outlay for capital deployment. I've said that over and over again, I like buybacks, I like buybacks as a complement to our growth strategy, not a substitute to growth strategy and frankly, when you look at Canada, we've deployed lot of capital, consolidating the wealth industry that worked out well for us, built up. I saw limited capacity for deployment on the M&A front in Canada, it's a pretty mature market, and in fact, every time one of the few assets come to play, people tend to overpay for them in my honest view. So I've said to the board, we cannot deploy a lot of excess capital to acquisitions in Canada. So that means we can have a disproportionate amount of excess capital allocated to buybacks and we need another venue for capital deployment and that's how we addressed that and we got to this. So more to come on September 16.

Unidentified Company Representative

And look, I get it. To be fair to you guys, we benchmark you against the other five banks who have operations in the US or Peru and Mexico and all these places and we expect you to grow on par with them in Quebec PNC and Canadian capital markets. But let me ask you this, you are a market guy, market hasn't reacted well to these acquisitions and you get another chance to give more information on that next week, but do you feel if there was any lessons learned, was it that the communication around this initiative wasn't particularly robust to begin with, or was it that you did it while the capital position was under some pressure, maybe it's both?

Louis Vachon

I think you are, all the above is the answer. I think we benefited hindsight, I think we should have been more proactive in giving more details and again that was completely my decision and I'm completely responsible for it. It was started very small, so I said, I didn't want to make too much out of something that was quite small, and then to wrap it up, occurred a little bit quickly, and I think as you pointed out before, to me, and I think you're absolutely right, if our capital position had been 11% and above industry average, I don't think people would have made that big of a deal out of it. So our lower than peers capital position and our information in a way we ramped up the operation I think caused where we got to. That's why we are moving our capital to what I said earlier, and we are doing a lot more work, including the Investor Day next week to give more visibility on the operations. So we are addressing these two issues.

Unidentified Company Representative

Well, thank you as always for your time and I will see you next Friday.

Louis Vachon

Well, thank you.

Question-and-Answer Session

Q -

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