Doing The Heavy Lifting

Nov. 20, 2016 2:53 PM ETDD, GME, MRO, MS20 Comments
George Acs profile picture
George Acs
3.38K Followers

Summary

  • Natural market forces have raised interest rates on the 10-year Treasury note to where they were at the time of the last FOMC rate increase.
  • Good earnings news from national retailers may be indicating an awakening consumer and optimistic guidance is being given for 2017.
  • While the FOMC's work may be being done for it, they could still prove their relevancy with a surprise on the size of the interest rate increase.

You might be able to easily understand any reluctance that the FOMC has had in the past year or maybe even in the year ahead to raise interest rates.

To understand why those decision makers could be scarred, all you have to do is glance back to nearly a year ago.

At that time, after a 9 year period of not having had a single increase in interest rates, the FOMC did increase interest rates.

The data compelled them to do so, as the FOMC has professed to be data driven.

Presumably, they did more than just look in the rear view mirror, casting forward projections and interpreting what are sometimes conflicting pieces of the puzzle.

At the time, the conventional wisdom, no doubt guided somewhat by the FOMC's own suggestions, was that the small increase was going to be the first and that we were likely to see a series of such increases in 2016.

Funny thing about that, though.

Data is not the same as a crystal ball. Data is backward looking and trends can stop on a dime, or if I were to factor in the future value of money based upon the increase in the 10 Year Treasury note ever since Election Day, considerably more than a dime.

click to enlarge)

With the gift of hindsight, 2016 didn't work out quite the way we all thought it might, but here we are, nearly a year later and with interest rates right where they were when they were last raised and the near certainty that they will be raised once again in just a few weeks.

Looking at the chart above and recalling the subsequent nose dive that the stock market took in the aftermath of the FOMC decision, you can begin to understand why there might be

This article was written by

George Acs profile picture
3.38K Followers
I am a simple individual investor who believes that the playing field is level, but may require active management of one's holdings. I've devised a series of steps that constitute a highly defined covered option strategy that most anyone can follow and that I've described in Option to Profit (2011). Having retired from a career in Pediatric Dentistry, approximately 10 years ahead of schedule, after spending the previous 10 years working just 2 1/2 days each week, I now spend my time trading.For almost 5 years I alerted others of trading opportunities in large cap positions through the Option to Profit subscription service, a premium subscription service that provided actionable Trading Alerts via text messaging or e-mail at my old site www.optiontoprofit.com. As of January 2, 2017, the site  and the name "Option to Profit" are no longer mine. as I've again joined the dark side and taken the easy money. But I've returned to my blogging roots on January 2, 2017 by resurrecting the old TheAcsMan.com ad supported web site, open to all.That, too, ended and the new, subscriber based LEAPtoProfit.com which launched July 2018 and is geared to the less active trader who is either shifting into a "buy and hold" strategy, as am I in this next to final stage of my investing career or seeks to milk an existing "buy and hold" portfolio.Current;y. the LEAPtoProfit p[ortfolio is fully invested and the paywall has been removed until December 2019 when I expect an infusion of cash from position assignments.Ultimately, I hope to make my stock portfolio improve the quality of my life. Whatever stage of life you are in, you can make your stocks improve that quality by putting them to work for you and perhaps LEAPtoProfit can be part of that process.

Disclosure: I am/we are long DOW, GME, MRO. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I may buy/add shares or sell puts in DOW, GME and MRO

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