My goodness this has been a busy eventful month for the US with the presidential election, 10 year T bond yield hugely escalating, and the stock market gyrating, rotating its sectors. I hope you have been enjoying the ups and the downs of the sector rotation.
I can't get enough of it all:
SEEING RED that is
: and I am joking.
This last quarter, with ~17% of my holdings in equity REITs, my portfolio value has taken a real hit to the down side. Those holdings actually performed quite well with revenues in the green along with dividend raises, but the stock prices saw downside moves.
The seeing GREEN part of dividend raises and revenue up beats has been over shadowed by those price declines. Seeing Green is much prettier too! I love it a lot more.
Great businesses getting whacked by being over priced was bound to happen, but I did mostly nothing other than trim some holdings. The Equity REITs were just such a sector, now called real estate, of being over priced and over bought for the nice dividend yields they offered, but the question that many never asked was: Did they really historically offer the CORRECT yields for the risk? As that is another topic I will not discuss here but could.
It might not be over yet for some sectors that were actually considered defensive: like consumer staples, Healthcare, Utilities and Tele-Com.
The Fed most likely will raise rates in December and probably many times in 2017, if what we read is to be believed.
I repeat: This down side in pricing might not be over yet, it could be, but no one really knows.
Some stocks got hit more than others, with previous interest rate raises speculation.
Now this all adds up/ or should I say down, in my portfolio and if it could talk you would hear:
Still, I take solace in the dividends that continue to escalate and show green…
My portfolio as I was recently calculating, as I needed something positive to dwell on, is going to increase about 10% for dividend income for 2017. (That is if, and only if, I do not change anything).
So why all the fuss? Is all the downside
I am beginning to wonder, as it truly does kind of HURT.
Could we have been spared some of this downside price hurt? Many wrote about trimming the holdings and some even talked about hedging. In an excellent article here in July of this year, The Fortune Teller cautioned us all to beware of this mispricing, at least with the equity REITs. Gosh, Halloween in July, a bit early to think about it, as all was going so well and the prices of many of these was actually rising, O and DLR were I few I owned, and still do own. Many authors were actually still saying to buy cautiously, and finally many started to put on the brakes. Brad Thomas did say to trim O, so now I knew things must be getting serious. This mention by Brad and The Fortune Teller caused me to trim. I at least listened to that part, but had no idea about how to hedge, much less short a stock or even use options, but I did some trimming of O, DLR, and VTR. I also trimmed some utilities, WEC, SO and D. Not much, but a token trim. It is like cutting an arm off a well loved teddy bear.
I just quickly want to show you what was going on with O.
Here is a Fast Graph for O for the past 12 years. I ask myself: was I paying close attention? I think not.
It has my attention now, and I see it is just continuing on its downward path. What do you think?
The red line in the above chart is the dividend yield which you can see was going down too. That should have been a strong message to most everyone, especially me, that O was over bought and getting more so. With interest rates rising possibly this December what are you thinking of that chart right now?
Is the price going down some more or will it go up? None of us truly know. I sold my first call options on O this week as I think it will go down even more, as the signs I see all point to just that. I will reveal those options later. I made a nice chart that will appear at the end of the article.
The real Halloween of October may be over, but the red of the equity REIT prices maybe not. Does this quality company deserve it? Yes, but others are possibly over sold, such as the healthcare REITs with amazing higher yields, such as CCP and OHI. But then again, they might be more risky. But the over bought ones, with the lower yields such as VTR might still have some down side. However, they all can have downside as the market sometimes takes a whole sector along for the ride. In the end, when ever that ride might end, these will be profitable holdings in the LONG term. If you like the green of the dividend and portfolio value, then this is no issue, just ignore seeing red and just "Love" those Green Dividends.
Here is my current portfolio by sectors that shows portfolio value and share price as of Friday Nov 18th and the income % currently for 2016 and hopefully into 2017. Of course, I must make no changes.
|Company Name||curr $pr||% Value||Cur inc||17 Inc|
|P & Gamble||(NYSE:PG)||82||1.3%||1.2%||1.1%|
|Kraft Heinz Co||(NASDAQ:KHC)||82.53||0.5%||0.3%||0.3%|
|T. Rowe Price||(NASDAQ:TROW)||73.47||0.7%||0.8%||0.5%|
|Johnson & J||(NYSE:JNJ)||115.36||3.6%||2.5%||2.2%|
|W W Grainger||(NYSE:GWW)||217.62||0.5%||0.3%||0.3%|
|Auto Data Proc||(NASDAQ:ADP)||94.39||1.1%||0.6%||0.6%|
|Washington Prime Group||(NYSE:WPG)||10.16||0.3%||0.2%||0.7%|
Let's move on to my recent buys and sells that got the portfolio to 86 holdings.
My Stock Sales- 4 of them
#1 CTO= Consolidated Tomoka
I saw profit taking with this land company in Florida, Daytona Beach to be specific. It offers the possibility of potentially becoming a REIT in 2017. It has a terrible dividend yield of 0.3%, but also holds the probability of a bright future and capital gains. It also was a very small token position which I decided I didn't really care to build it up. I could book ~$3/share in under 3 months of owning it (5.7% increase in that time= 22.8% for the year) I just said Good-bye.
#2 NSA= National Storage Affiliates
I wanted a storage REIT. I like and still do like NSA. At the time of sale, I had a small holding.
Another one to say good-bye to. I broke even on it. It remains on my want list if the price goes lower.
I have cash tied up in other option puts, so can not sell a put on it. Did you understand that, I hope so.
No big deal, as I really don't need it with an already full equity REIT cupboard.
#3 GILD= Gilead
I have just plain given up on this healthcare drug company, and decided I didn't need a growth stock like it. It ran up in price right after the election and offered an excellent price for me to off load my shares without out too much of a loss, barely much of one. It will be used for the small cap losses in our taxable account. I added to my BDX holding with the cash. Smiling in fact about the switch. BDX fell to $162.84 and I added some, as I had been wanting more. WIN-WIN for me.
#4 RAI = Reynolds American
Reynolds is being pursued for a takeover by BTI, British tobacco and the price escalated to around $55 from ~ $47 where I had been very pleasingly adding shares. Now, many thought RAI to be over priced and it probably was, I got lucky with this take over. I never look GOOD LUCK in the face and wave it off. I finally sold all my shares. I sold first in the Roth accounts and finally decided to take the gains in the taxable where I also sold GILD for a little loss. Could the RAI price eventually go higher? Well, maybe, but it's too late for me. I am seeing green and I have some cash for bargains or maybe even some for option puts.
Stock Buys- 2
#1 WPG= Washington Prime Group (formerly know as: WP Glimcher)
This is a Maryland equity REIT that had its CEO Glimcher step down earlier this year. I got rather edgy about the situation and sold out - it would seem wrongly in the $10.50 to $11 range. However, I did make a killing on the share price at the time and got some really great dividends, all in my Roth. The price went higher and even up to $13.50 or more, but like most equity REITs it was over bought and has seen its price decline. As it entered the $10.25 range and 9.8% +yield, bargain hunter Rose took action and got some more again. In the mean time the price has been holding steady. This one has 73% debt and a BBB- S&P credit rating folks, and it could be a take over target. Even so, I think it stands at or near a buy for almost anyone that cares to speculate a bit. If it goes below $10 with its dividend of $1.00, you can do the math and will have a 10% yield and some margin of safety, I would think, in that price. Remember, I am no expert, but Brad Thomas did think there were no troubles with new management.
#2 MRCC = Monroe Capital
This BDC from what I read is a quality holding with 37% debt but has no credit rating.
Please see the Fast Graph below. It is flat and tried and true for a few years now.
The historical yield has been 11.1%. It currently is 9.4%. I like the lack of volatility.
The current NAV (net asset value) is $14.50, so it was trading below it. That offers a bit of a margin of safety in my eyes. I waited recently for a price drop to get some for 10% yield or $14.04. (Close enough.) It did go recently down to $13.80 or so, and I read in this article that the author got some at a great buy price. Other authors including BDC Buzz have mentioned its quality-safety, and I liked that as well.
This is a very small starter position and only 0.14% of my portfolio value and offers 0.3% of income.
I now have 8 BDCs in my Financial BDC portfolio. It composes 5.9% of the portfolio and gives me 13.4% of 2017 proposed income which I have shown in my chart of holdings in this article.
Here is a summation chart of the 86 holdings by sectors alone without any companies being revealed.
|Sector||% P Value||Curr % Inc||% 2017 Inc|
|Consumer Staples- 14||20.6||16.1||15.6|
|Misc Reit- 12||10.4||12.9||14.7|
MY OPTIONS RESULTS
In a September article I mentioned I was starting to learn how to sell covered calls and cash covered puts. 3 of these have now "expired" and these are the results.
UNILEVER = UL
UL was a call for OCT 21 for $47.50 (to sell 100 shares). I got $49.30 profit for just doing the option. It expired "worthless", so I got to keep the shares. RATS! Now, in hind sight, I should have picked a lower strike price, as I did want to sell those shares. Of course, the price of UL has fallen precipitously and now trades @ ~ $37. I ended up adding to my holding this week. Still great company and now trading at a much better lower price.
Nov 18 th, Friday saw this option expire worthless. DEO currently is selling in the $101 area.
It was for $120 call strike price to sell 100 shares. It was trading around $114 when I made the option. DEO did get a bit higher, but never really made it close. I did well taking in $112.30 for renting my shares for 2 months. This is one of my best option results for now.
I was successful, I guess, with this one, as I now have 100 new shares of Nike for $52.50. I lost just a bit on it. When I sold the option for $106.30 back in September, NKE was trading for ~ $55-6.
I thought $52.50 would be okay to own some. So, I guess, it's a win-win in that manner, as I paid less than the going rate at the time. BUT, it did get down under $50 for a bit of this time. One never knows. So, I have a question for you all. Do I record the price as $52.50 or can I include my option portion in that buy price and make the cost (52.50- 1.06 = 51.44 per share)? How do you do it?
FYI: this transaction was in my Roth, so no issues with taxes to consider for the future.
Here is a list of my other options I have done recently and still have remaining.
Most all are just 1 option (or 100 shares). I indicate those in the type column if more than 1 option.
My list is getting longer. I am either a real idiot and hope you will tell me so, or a true genius, which I doubt. I am sharing and showing what trouble I can get into. As my parents always told me in a loving way, I knew how to find interesting pursuits.
I hope we can learn together and I get much valuable insightful help with this new endeavor.
|Date Ends||Option Stock||Strike price||Type||value||net paid|
HAS, BMY, O and VTR are very close to being "ITM= In the money". That was the idea for me. CVX not so much.
I don't really care if they sell or don't so a win-win, and I get more $ for that. I think they mostly will be going lower and the time aspect to these options helps keep them with me for a bit.
All I can lose here are shares of stock or my dignity if the prices go wrong, but I so love learning.
Happy Thanksgiving, as there is much in life to give thanks for, family, friends, religion and all of you on SA.
Disclosure: I am/we are long ALL 86 STOCKS IN CHART.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.