Inflation Nation (Part 2)

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About: Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco 1-30 Laddered Treasury ETF (PLW), GOVT, FTT, EGF, TAPR, FIBR, RINF
by: Douglas Tengdin, CFA
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Douglas Tengdin, CFA
Long only, growth at reasonable price, bonds, long-term horizon

What does our low inflation environment mean for investors?

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Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator. Source: Department of Commerce

Inflation is an average. Prices in some areas are growing quickly, while others fall. That’s the way it has to be in a broadly diversified economy. The broadest measure of inflation - the personal consumption deflator - measures everything that consumers buy, and weights it by how much, then spend on those items. It measures substitution effects. So if the cost of cotton shirts doubles and everyone switches to synthetics, inflation wouldn’t change.

By contrast, the consumer price index measures the prices for a basket of goods - 40 thousand different items. That’s why I’m a little skeptical of