106 Weeks And Counting

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About: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY), QQQ, DIA, SH, SSO, VOO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, TQQQ, UPRO, PSQ, SPXL, SPLV, RSP, SPXS, SQQQ, QID, DOG, QLD, PRF, CRF, DXD, UDOW, RWL-OLD, SDOW, VFINX, EPS, SCHX, VV, USA, DDM, OEF, IWB, SPHQ, ZF, MGC, SPHB, QQEW, BXUB, QQQE, FEX, VONE, JKD, XLG, SPLX, EEH, EQL, SFLA, BXUC, QQXT, SPLG, ROLA, SPUU, GSLC, IWL, LGLV, FWDD, CFA, EQWL, ONEO, EQAL, FMK, SYE, SBUS, ZLRG, CFO, DEUS, QMOM, SPXE, XRLV, PPLC, SPMO, UDPIX, JHML, OTPIX, RYARX, SPXN, USSD, ESGS, HUSV, JUNE, OEW, ONEV, ONEY, OPD, OVLC-OLD, QUS, SPDN, SPXT, SPXV, TALL, USWD
by: Bespoke Investment Group

The streak goes on. Despite new all-time highs in the major equity benchmarks and the DJIA getting within half a point of 20,000, individual investors still can’t get to a majority in the bullish camp. According to this week’s survey from AAII, bullish sentiment dropped by about two and a half points in the latest week, falling from 46.20% down to 43.64%. That’s actually the lowest level since early December and shows that just like the overall consolidation we have seen in the market in the last several weeks, sentiment has also taken a breather. For the sake of reference, if bullish sentiment goes another five weeks without reaching 50%, it will be the longest streak of sub-50% readings in the history of the survey.

Although bulls aren’t in the majority, they do have a clear plurality. As shown in the charts below, bearish sentiment remains relatively low at 26.97%, while neutral sentiment is still under 30%. We would also note that this is a big change from the first half of 2016, when neutral sentiment was the leader with weekly readings routinely above 40%.