S&P 500 Weekly Earnings Update: Tech And Growth Are Leading In 2017

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Includes: BXUB, BXUC, EPS, FTEC, FXL, IGM, IVV, IYW, JHMT, LLSP, QTEC, REW, ROM, RSP, RWL, RYARX, RYT, SDS, SFLA, SH, SPDN, SPLX, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU, SPXV, SPY, SSO, TALL, TCHF, TECL, TECS, TECZ, UPRO, VFINX, VGT, VOO, XITK, XLK, XNTK
by: Brian Gilmartin, CFA

Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S data (by the numbers):

  • Forward 4-quarter estimate: $131.50 vs last week's $131.95
  • PE ratio: 17.6(x)
  • PEG ratio: 2.24(x)
  • S&P 500 earnings yield: 5.68%
  • Year-over-year growth of the forward estimate: 7.88% vs last week's 7.71% and still shy of recent high of 8%

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S&P 500 sectors ranked by year-over-year earnings and revenue growth: (Source Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S)

Q4 '16 S&P 500 earnings Growth:

  • Financials: +20.9%
  • Technology: +10.9%
  • Utilities: +10.8%
  • Basic Materials: +8.0%
  • Cons Staples: +7.0%
  • Health Care: +7.0%
  • Cons Discr: +3.3%
  • Real Estate: +0.7%
  • Energy: -0.7%
  • Industrials: -1.3%
  • Telecom: -1.5%

S&P 500: +8.4%

Q4 '16 Revenue Growth:

  • Utilities: +15.4%
  • Technology: +6.8%
  • Cons Discr: +5.6%
  • Health Care: +5.5%
  • Basic Materials: +4.2%
  • Financials: +3.3%
  • Real estate: +3.3%
  • Cons Spls: +3.0%
  • Energy: +2.7%
  • Industrials: +1.4%
  • Telco: -1.6%

S&P 500: +4.4%

Analysis/conclusion: Technology has been the best performing sector YTD, up roughly 7% as of Friday morning, February 10th, usurping Basic Materials lead at the end of January '17, which was the best performing sector for the month. In 2016, small-cap and value were the best performing sectors, while large-cap and growth have reasserted their respective leadership positions in 2017. There was a big discrepancy in index performance in 2016 as the Russell 2000 returned over 21%, while the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 each returned 7.5% and 5.89% respectively.

At year-end 2015, this was posted to this blog, just for readers' edification.

Given the top weightings in the S&P 500, with Technology stocks being 4 of the 5 top weightings by market cap, the S&P 500, and Technology are still tied at the hip (or the smartphone) so to speak.

S&P 500 Top 5 components by market cap:

  1. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): 3.5%
  2. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT): 2.5%
  3. Exxon (NYSE:XOM): 1.7%
  4. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN): 1.6%
  5. Facebook (NASDAQ:FB): 1.6%

Tech is back, for now anyways, after a dismal year last year. We wrote this in early December '16, as Tech badly lagged the "election rally".

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