Noble Corp. - Complete Fleet Analysis As Of Feb. 23, 2017, And Commentary

| About: Noble Corporation (NE)
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Summary

NE released its January fleet status on February 23, 2017. Only one long-term Jack-up contract.

The Jack-up Regina Allen has been awarded up to a 2-year contract with Exxon Mobil off Canada @88.5k/d. Backlog is approximately $62 million.

Noble is a survivor and this recent fleet status is another testimony that proves it once more.

Noble Corporation plc (NYSE:NE)

This article is an update of my preceding article published on January 20, 2017, about the January fleet status.

Investment thesis

It is important to follow regularly the fleet status released by Noble Corporation Plc., because it shows the actual "temperature" of the business, and we can deduce from this simple analysis a rebound potential that could justify an early accumulation.

Unfortunately, we are not quite there, despite what the oil prices are trying to tell us. Offshore drilling is still struggling, and there are no signs of "green shoots" for Noble yet. It is said that the proof is in the pudding.

However, I noticed some improvements in the Jack-up segment lately, with Ensco's (NYSE:ESV) February fleet status; will it be confirmed by Noble?

Complete Fleet Analysis and Fleet Status as of February 23, 2017.

1. Class: Drillships

# Name

Spec.

K feet

Contract

End

Current

Day rate

K$

Location

(0-rate)

1

Noble Bob Douglas

2013

10/40

En route 3/17

3/17 - 5/17 (60-day?)

$290?

[Apache (NYSE:APA)]

Suriname

2

Noble Bully I

2011

8.2/40 Mid 3/17

488

[Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B)]

GoM

3

Noble Bully II

2011

8.25/40

5/17

<5/17 - 5/18

5/18 - Early 4/22

456

200 [Idle 365 days]

200 (floor)

[Shell]

Malaysia

4

Noble Don Taylor

2013

10/40 Late 2/19

482

[Shell]

US GoM

15% bonus eligible

5

Noble Globetrotter I

2011

10/40

7/17

7/17 - Mid 7/22

436

275 (floor)

[Shell]

US GoM

15% bonus eligible

6

Noble Globetrotter II

2013

10/40

1/2017 - 1/2019

1/2019 - Early 9/2023

185 (idle)

275 (floor)

[Shell]

Tanzania

15% bonus eligible

2. Class: Semi-Submersibles

# Name

Spec.

K feet

Contract

End

Current

Day rate

$ k

Location
1

Noble Paul Romano

1981/1998

6/25

Late 5/17

128.5

[Hess (NYSE:HES)]

US GoM

4. Class: Jack-Ups

# Name

Spec.

Feet/K feet

Contract

End

Current

Day rate

Location
1

Noble Alan Hay

1980/2005

300/25

Late 12/17

85

Arabian Gulf

0-rate 3Q'16 (55d) for SPS

2

Noble Lloyd Noble

2Q'2016

($409 million final payment)

492/32

Late 11/20

Rig commenced contract on 11/30/2016

447 (including mobilization revenue)

[Statoil (NYSE:STO)] UKNS

2-year priced option

3

Noble David Tinsley

1981/

2004/2010

300/25

Late 12/17

85

Arabian Gulf

4

Noble Gene House

1981/1998

300/25

Mid 11/18

65

[Aramco (Private:ARMCO)] Arabian Gulf

(30d) 3Q17

5

Noble Hans Deul

2009

400/30

8/18

88 ("1")

[Shell]

UK

North Sea

6

Noble Joe Beall

1981/2004

300/25

Mid 11/18

65

[Aramco] Arabian Gulf

(90d) 1Q17

7

Noble Mick O'Brien

2013

400/35

8/17

150

UAE

8

Noble Roger Lewis

2007

400/30

Early 3/17

Early 3/17 - Early 3/22

167

159

[Aramco] Arabian Gulf

0-rate 1Q'17 (15d)

9

Noble Sam Hartley

2014

400/35

Mid 1/19

Q2'18 (See note below)

111

[Total (NYSE:TOT)]

Brunei

10

Noble Sam Turner

2014

400/35

Late 8/18

96.5

[Maersk (OTCPK:AMKAF)]

Denmark

11

Noble Scott Marks

2009

400/30

Early 7/17

Early 7/17 -Early 7/22

167

159

[Aramco] Arabian Gulf

(30d) 1Q'17

12

Noble Regina Allen

2013

300/25

Early 4/17

4Q17-1Q18 to 4Q19-1Q20 (up to 2 years)

Accommodation Not disclosed (55k/d?)

88.5

[Not disclosed]

UK NS

plus options

[Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM)]

Canada

13

Noble Houston Colbert

2014

400/35

Late 5/17

Not disclosed (90k/d?)

[JX Nippon]

Qatar

("1") Client has the right to early terminate the contract for convenience subject to a notice period and, in some circumstances, a retroactive day rate adjustment.

Note: JU Sam Hartley: Original program was defined as a six-well project, with an expected completion of three years. Because the program is running ahead of schedule, the rig could be available in the first half of 2018.

Rigs available, ready-stacked or cold-stacked, idle.

# Rig name/shipyard date Type Year built Status Location
1 Noble Clyde Boudreaux (12/15) SemiSub 1987/2007 Warm-stacked Singapore
2 Noble Amos Runner (2/16) SemiSub 1982/1999 Cold-stacked GoM
3 Noble Jim Day (1/16) SemiSub 1989/1999/2010 Cold-stacked GoM
4 Noble Dany Adkins (3/16) SemiSub 1989/1999/2009 Cold-stacked GoM
5

Noble Sam Croft (5/16)

Drillship 2014 Warm-stacked GoM
6 Noble Tom Madden (5/16) Drillship 2014 Warm-stacked GoM
7 Noble Dave Beard (4/16) Semi-sub 1986-2008 Cold-stacked Singapore
8 Noble Tom Prosser (9/16) JU 2014 Warm-stacked UAE

Noble Fleet Snapshot

Total Drill-ships Semi-submersibles Jack-ups
Noble Corp. 20 6 1 13
Cold-stacked - Idle - Not contracted 8 2 5 1
Total 28 8 6 14

Backlog Detail:

Noble Corp.'s contract backlog totaled approximately $3.66 billion now.

Commentary:

Noble Corp. released its February fleet status. It was not as busy as the January FSR, but the company managed to get a 2-year contract with Exxon Mobil for the Regina Allen.

1 - The semi-submersible Danny Adkins is now cold stacked.

2 - The Drillship Bob Douglas is en route to its location in Suriname.

3 - The Noble Homer Ferrington and Noble Max Smith are now retired and will not be indicated anymore in the FSR. The company owns now 28 rigs in which 20 rigs are contracted.

4 - The Jack-up Scott Marks has a 5-day increase in downtime.

5 - The Jack-up Regina Allen has been awarded a up to a 2-year contract with Exxon Mobil off Canada @88.5k/d. Backlog is approximately $62 million. 22 wells P&A program.

I noted that the floater segment is struggling much more than the Jack-up segment which seems to be getting some support with oil above $53 a barrel. This is what many analysts have stated about the deep water business.

To revive this segment, oil prices must break through the $60 per barrel resistance and it is a difficult struggle between OPEC and the US Shale now.

While the Jack-up segment manages to get some good work for 2017 and after, the floater segment is about to show increased idle time in a few months. Another three rigs will roll off contract before June 2017.

  1. The last company Semi-submersible, Paul Romano, which will be probably cold stacked.
  2. The Drillship Noble Bully I next month that has not been extended by Shell and probably warm stacked.
  3. The Drillship Bob Douglas after finishing its job in Suriname. However, the drillship may be awarded an extension depending on the drilling results?

Noble is a survivor and this recent fleet status is another testimony that proves it once more.

Important note: Do not forget to follow me on NE and other offshore drillers. Thank you for your support.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in NE over the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Still waiting for a better entry to buy back.