'Safe' Russell Index Review I: All Cap Russell 3000 Top Dogs Include 5 'Safe' Sector Dividend Leaders

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Includes: AGNC, AI, APAM, CBL, CIM, CTL, CYS, DX, FSAM, GCI, MITT, NCMI, NEWM, NLY, NNA, NRZ, ORC, OSG, SMRT
by: Fredrik Arnold

Summary

31 of 75 Russell 3000 Index (R3K) stocks showed free cash flow yields greater than dividend yields 2/22/17. Those 31 were tagged "safe" with current cash to cover dividends.

Top 10 "safe" February R3K annual yields ranged 10.43% to 16.73% from CIM; MITT; NNA; NLY; AGNC; NRZ; DX; CYS; ORC; AI. Their cash flow yields ranged 12.62%-62.46%.

Besides safety margin, "safe" R3K stocks also reported payout ratios (lower is better), total annual returns, and dividend growth, as of 2/22/17 to further reinforce their reliability.

Matched against top ten Dow Dogs, the "safe" R3K ten produced 243% more dividend returns at 15% of the top ten Dow Dog aggregate price.

Analyst one year targets revealed top ten "safe" R3K stocks cast 41.38% more gain from $5k invested in the lowest priced five than from $5K invested in all ten.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

The "dog" moniker was earned by stocks exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More specifically, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs."

FTSE Russell states:

"The Russell Indexes are a family of global equity indices that allow investors to track the performance of distinct market segments worldwide."

"Using a rules-based and transparent process, Russell forms its indexes by listing all companies in descending order by market capitalization adjusted for float, which is the actual number of shares available for trading. In the United States, the top 3,000 stocks (those of the 3,000 largest companies) make up the broad-market Russell 3000 Index. The top 1,000 of those companies make up the large-cap Russell 1000 Index, and the bottom 2,000 (the smallest companies) make up the small-cap Russell 2000 Index."

Which Sectors Are "Safe" For The Russell 3000 Index?

Six of eleven Morningstar sectors were represented by the 31 R3K firms whose dividends were bolstered by adequate cash as of February 22. The sector representation broke out as follows: Financial Services (5); Real Estate (18); Industrials (2); Consumer Cyclical (4); Healthcare (1); Communication Services (1); Technology (0); Consumer Defensive (0); Utilities (0); Energy (0); Basic Materials (0).

Top ten R3K "safe" dogs showing the widest safety margin of cash to cover dividends by this screen as of February 22 represented the first three sectors on the list above.

Russell 3000 Index Firms With "Safe" Dividends

Periodic Safety Inspection

You see grouped below the list of 31 that passed the R3K index dog "safety" check with sufficient annual cash flow yield to cover their anticipated annual dividend yield. The margin of excess is shown in the bold face "Safety Margin" column.

Corporate financial solvency however is readily overturned by a capricious or tightwad board of directors promoting company policies canceling or varying the payout of dividends to shareholders. On the list above, for example, Orchid Island Capital (ORC) slashed a $0.18 monthly dividend to $0.14 s of July 23, 2015. Similarly, AGNC Investment (AGNC) on July 27, 2016 announced a reduction of its $.20 monthly shareholder payout to $.18 as of September. Finally, Annaly Capital Management, like many firms, utilizes a variable quarterly payment to keep dividends aligned with cash flow.

Three additional columns of financial data, listed after the Safety Margin figures above, reveal payout ratios (lower is better), total annual returns, and dividend growth levels for each stock. This data is provided to reach beyond yield to select reliable payout stocks. Positive results in all five columns after the dividend ratio is remarkable as a solid financial signal.

Dividend vs. Price Compared to Dow

Ten top "safe" R3K Index dividend dog stocks by yield were graphed below as of 2/22/17 and compared to those of the Dow. Annual dividend amounts from $1000 invested in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and their aggregate single share price created the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividends.

Actionable Conclusions: (1) Top Russell 3000 Index Dog Dividend Exceeds Price While (2) Dow Dogs Price Exceeds Dividend

Ten top "Safe" R3K Index dogs' aggregate single share price for top ten yielding dogs was 9% of the dividend derived from $10k invested as $1k in each of the top ten stocks.

Meanwhile, Dow dogs' aggregate single share price for top ten yielding dogs was 70% of the dividend derived from $10k invested as $1k in each of the top ten stocks.

As a result, the Dow dogs' overbought condition (where aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $10k invested as $1k in each) shows as a huge pricing disadvantage for new investors.

The Overbought Dow

The Dow Dogs remain overbought and overpriced. Meaning, these are low risk and low opportunity Dow dogs. The Dow top ten average price per dollar of annual dividend was $28.30 February 22.

In sharp contrast to the Dow, "Safe" R3K dividend dog top ten average price per dollar of annual dividend was $8.16 as of 2/22/17. That is 29% of the price per dollar for Dow annual dividends.

Matched against top ten Dow Dogs, the "safe" R3K ten produced 243% more dividend returns at 15% of the top ten Dow Dog aggregate price.

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high yield "dog" metric, analyst mean price target estimates provided another tool to dig out bargains.

Actionable Conclusion (3): Wall St. Wizards Forecast A 7.8% 1 yr. Average Upside and 17.8% Net Gain From the Top 30 "Safe" Russell 3000 Index Stocks

Top dogs on the "Safe" R3K stock list were graphed above to compare relative strengths by dividend and price as of February 22, 2017 with those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2018.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $10,000 invested as $1K in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points applied to 2017. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst mean target prices as reported by Yahoo Finance created the 2018 data points in blue for dividend and green for price. Note: one year target prices from one analyst were usually not applied (n/a).

Analysts projected an 4.7% lower dividend from $10K invested as $1k in the top ten February R3K "Safe" dogs while aggregate single share price was projected to increase by 3.2% in the coming year.

The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the above chart. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were usually not applied (n/a).

A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock price movement opposed to market direction.

Actionable Conclusion (4): Analysts Predicted Top Ten Russell 3000 Index "Safe" Dog Stocks to Net 21% to 72.6% Gains By February, 2018

Only two of the ten top "safe" dividend R3K dogs (tinted gray in the chart above) were verified as being among the Top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. Thus the dog strategy for this R3K group as graded by analyst estimates for February proved just 20% accurate.

Ten probable profit generating trades were illustrated by YCharts analytics for 2018:

Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG) netted $726.00 per estimates from two analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for OSG.

Stein Mart (SMRT) netted $404.73 based on a median target price from three analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 41% more than the market as a whole.

Orchid Island Capital (ORC) netted $267.85 based on dividends plus the median of annual price estimates from one analyst less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 35% less than the market as a whole.

Gannett (GCI) netted $256.79 based on dividends plus median target price estimate from six analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 53% less than the market as a whole.

CBL & Associates (CBL) netted $241.66 based on mean target price estimates from sixteen analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 28% more than the market as a whole.

National CineMedia (NCMI) netted $237.43 based on estimates from eight analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 44% less than the market as a whole.

New Media Investment Group (NEWM) netted $234.93 based on target price estimates from three analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for NEWM.

Fifth Street Asset Mgmt (FSAM) netted $230.00, based on dividends plus target price estimates from two analysts plus dividends with broker fees subtracted. A Beta number was not available for FSAM.

Navios Maritime (NNA) netted $209.95, based on dividend, plus a median target price estimate from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 50% more than the market as a whole.

CenturyLink (CTL) netted $194.66 based on median target estimates from sixteen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 17% less than the market as a whole.

Average net gain in dividend and price was 34.57% on $1k invested in each of these ten "Safe" Russell 3000 Index dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 16% less than the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (5): (Bear Alert) Analysts Expected One "Safe" Russell 3000 Index Dog To Make A 4.96% Loss By February, 2018

A probable losing trade revealed by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance for 2018 was:

Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM) projected a loss of $49.61 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from six analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 77% more than the market as a whole.

Dog Metrics Looked For Bargains From Lowest Priced "Safe" Dividend Russell 3000 Index Stocks

Ten "Safe" R3K firms with the biggest yields February 22 per YCharts data ranked themselves by yield as follows:

Actionable Conclusions: (6) Analysts Expected 5 Lowest Priced, of Ten "Safe" Dividend High Yield Russell 3000 Index Dogs, To Deliver 15.25% VS. (7) 10.79% Net Gains from All Ten by February, 2018

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest priced stocks in the "safe" ten R3K pack by yield were determined by analyst 1 year targets to deliver 41.38% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The fourth lowest priced safe dividend R3K dog, Orchid Island Capital (ORC) showed the best net gain of 26.78% per analyst targets.

Lowest priced five "safe" R3K dogs as of February 22 were: Navios Maritime (NNA); Dynex Capital (DX); CYS Investments (CYS); Orchid Island Capital; Annaly Capital Management (NLY), with prices ranging from $1.87 to $10.90.

Higher priced five "Safe" Dividend R3K Index dogs as of February 22 were: Arlington Asset Investment (AI); New Residential Investment (NRZ); AG Mortgage Investment (MITT); Chimera Investment (CIM), and AGNC Investment (AGNC) with prices ranging from $14.94 to $19.50.

This distinction between five low priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflects the "basic method" Michael B. O'Higgins employed for beating the Dow. The added scale of projected gains based on analyst targets contributed a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here and now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Its also the work analysts got paid big bucks to do.

Caution is advised, however, as analysts are historically 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and about 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of the change.

The net gain estimates mentioned above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article and this instablog to aid your safe investing. --Fredrik Arnold

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible starting points for your safe dividend S&P500 dog stock research process. These were not recommendations.

One of these Russell 3000 Index dividend pups qualified as a great catch! Find it among the now 52 Dogs of the Week (DOTW)I or among 27 DOTWII found on The Dividend Dog Catcher premium site. Click here to subscribe or get more information.

It's about time to make investing fun again. For a free copy of the monthly top dogs, the quarterly winners, and the dog of the year and runners-up from the 52 Dogs of the Week (DOTW) I portfolio, plus a glimpse at the top dogs in DOTW II, send your e-mail address, ticker symbol for your favorite dividend stock, and name of your favorite team of any sport or activity to: fredrika120@gmail.com, or click "send message" below my name under the headline above this article. Remember: E-mail, ticker, team!

Root for the Underdog.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from ycharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. Dog photo from: omlet.co.uk.

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