Auto Sales Tracking A Miss Early

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Includes: CARZ
by: Bespoke Investment Group

Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) reported strong sales numbers ahead of the rest of the US auto industry this morning, but as we noted earlier on Twitter, Nissan hasn't been a good indicator of the overall direction for the industry. Ford's (NYSE:F) report brought the industry sales pace down to a bit less than 17.5mm. That would be a miss versus analyst estimates and a very small decline versus last month's numbers. Of course, it's still early; only two manufacturers representing 26% of the industry's volumes have reported. We'll be updating this post throughout the day as more numbers are announced by other auto OEMs.

Update 1 10:06 AM: Since Ford's report, we got strong numbers from GM (NYSE:GM) and Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY) and a weak month from Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU). That brings the total tracking rate for the industry to 17.385mm with almost 60% of the industry reported. The last large manufacturer still to report is Toyota (NYSE:TM), but the smaller OEMs can also make a big impact in the afternoon so it's possible total sales won't miss still.

Update 2 11:07 AM: We still haven't heard from Toyota but Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) and VW (OTCPK:VLKAF) did report in the middle of the morning, bringing the total tracked industry sales pace to 17.50mm SAAR by our count. Honda (NYSE:HMC) also delivered modest YoY growth in units of about 2.3%. With 70% of the industry now reported, it's getting less likely that the last third of reporting volume can get the total run rate above the 17.75mm estimated by analysts.

Update 3 11:26 AM: With results in from Toyota, we have now received February sales numbers from a bit more than 80% of the market. As shown below, with the 7.2% YoY NSA decline Toyota delivered for the month (versus expectations of a 4.8% decline) we are tracking 17.37mm SAAR sales pace on the month. If that number holds, it will be the weakest month of sales since August of 2016.

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