'Surprisingly Strong Economy': Atlanta GDP Forecast Dives

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by: Mises Institute

By C. Jay Engel

Well, that was fast. On Tuesday, we observed the silliness of Fed president Kaplan's idea that it was consumers that were going to push GDP up over 2%. Yesterday, we learnt the following:

Turning to spending and income, personal consumption expenditures could muster only a 0.2 percent gain, 1 tenth below the Econoday consensus in a marginal gain that belies the enormous strength underway in consumer confidence. And when adjusted for inflation, spending fell 0.3 percent for the largest drop since September 2009.

(Source)

There goes the consumer-led GDP hopes. In response, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model dipped hard: from a 2.5% forecast to a 1.8%.

gdpnow-forecast-evolution.gif

Just on Tuesday, the Fed was referring to a "surprisingly strong economy" which was used as support for interest rate hikes "sooner than later." So much for that. Further against the strong economy theme is the fact that, while GDP forecasts for first quarter 2017 were above 3% due to construction data forecasts, yesterday's construction numbers actually fell 1%!

Let's summarize: the GDP rate was supposed to grow due to consumer spending, which came in much lower than expected. Meanwhile, the GDP forecasts had been higher in the first place due to construction forecasts, which yesterday came in much lower as well.

But we're all supposed to scratch our heads and fathom what would we do without the Fed at the helm?

Note: The views expressed on Mises.org are not necessarily those of the Mises Institute.

Disclosure: No positions.

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