Week 12 Breakout Forecast: Short-Term Picks To Give You An Edge

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Includes: AAMC, BCOV, CBI, FPRX, GNW, IDRA, IO, IOVA, KERX, RVLT, TSRO, UTI
by: JD Henning

Summary

8 new breakout stocks for Week 12 with better than 10% short-term upside

4 new breakdown stocks for Week 12 with substantial downside potential

Last week total portfolio gained 4.50% with 4 stocks having returns of more than 10% throughout the week.

Long positions gained 7.09% while short positions lost -0.01% in the last week.

Summary

This article continues the weekly series of out-of-sample testing that focuses primarily on the two segments of my research that show the most potential for highly volatile positive breakouts and negative breakdowns. For 2017, I have been publishing a small sample of weekly breakout stock picks based on algorithms from my doctoral dissertation that identify price momentum anomalies and reversals. These selections include both high positive momentum breakouts as well as negative momentum stocks, based on the strongest documented characteristics of short-term momentum price behaviors. More about the research methodology and a link to my study can be found in my primer article on quick pick momentum accelerators.

Prior Week Performance

This approach by no means removes idiosyncratic risks (e.g., bankruptcy, SEC investigation, lawsuits, broad market changes, institutional fund changes, unexpected earnings announcements, loss of corporate officers, and other corporate catastrophes), but some significant probability of accurately classifying a stock into a particular momentum category for current and future momentum returns appears to exist in the short-term. The ongoing out-of-sample testing provided here using unscientific sample sizes of 8 and 4 (from among thousands of stocks) is only intended to provide short-term breakout (breakdown) forecasts that may give you some trading benefit.

Last week selection performance (see Week 11 Breakouts)
ALIM, FSNN, INFI, and LINC all exceeded 10% gains throughout the past week. XOMA suffered an unfavorable earnings report midweek that contributed to its unexpected decline. Continued momentum among these stocks can be expected. Though deliberately not included in this weeks selection, many prior stocks continue within strong momentum parameters.

Selections for Week 12 are as follows:

Benchmark indexes: S&P 500 ~ 2378.25 // DOW ~ 20914.62 // NASDAQ ~ 5901

Positive Acceleration Momentum Stocks

These stocks have strong characteristics of positive momentum into acceleration for short-term gains. The typical momentum duration horizon from this analysis appears to be one to three weeks. Based on past analysis, it is not uncommon for stocks to sustain the momentum criteria for longer periods. The selections of positive momentum stocks for this week include BCOV, GNW, IDRA, IO, KERX, LBIO, RVLT, UTI :

Negative Acceleration Momentum Stocks

These stocks have strong characteristics of momentum decline into acceleration for shorting opportunities. The typical momentum duration horizon from this analysis appears to be one to three weeks. Based on past analysis, it is not uncommon for stocks to sustain the momentum criteria for longer periods. The selections for negative momentum stocks for this week include AAMC, FPRX, CBI, TSRO:
This approach outperformed in 2016, and I am hopeful it will continue to be a reliable indicator of momentum conditions across the momentum cycle throughout 2017. Your comments on this ongoing study are appreciated. A list of prior week selections and performance can be viewed here.

My personal preference is to invest in long positions and not to identify companies for shorting. However, in the interest of documenting both positive/negative momentum breakouts using my algorithms, a small sample of negative accelerators is included. As always, I hope you capture the most beneficial of these breakout (breakdown) candidates and have a profitable week of trading!

Disclosure: I am/we are long RVLT, UTI,.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Editor's Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

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