Seeking Alpha

International Energy Agency Wakes Up and Smells the Peak Oil

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Includes: BCONQ, LSCG, MWAV, SATCQ
by: Tom Konrad, CFA

That Polyanna of energy price prediction, the International Energy Agency [IEA], issued a new report today which, while it still does not acknowledge peak oil, predicts a supply crunch in the 2010-12 time range.

Despite four years of high oil prices, this report sees increasing market tightness beyond 2010, with OPEC spare capacity declining to minimal levels by 2012,'' the IEA said in its Medium-Term Oil Market Report, which is published every six months. "Low OPEC spare capacity and slow non-OPEC production growth are of significant concern."

I was blown away . . . as were most energy stocks today. Big movers among stocks I've mentioned recently:

Beacon Power (BCON) up 24%

Lighting Science (LSGP) up 28%

M~Wave (Blue Sun Biodiesel) (OTC:MWAV) up 13%

Satcon (SATC) up 18%

As usual, moves in Renewable Energy companies are driven by changes in oil price sentiment, even if they are involved in electricity, which is not (yet) a substitute for oil. If investors were truly rational (they're far from it), only M~Wave would have seen a big move today. Although true rationality would have seen none of these moves, because most of us know that the IEA won't see peak oil coming until it's about five years in the rear view mirror.

Disclosure: Tom Konrad and/or his clients have positions in these companies mentioned here: BCON, LSGP, MWAV, SATC.