Fitbit Vindicated: Is The 12% Spike Justified?

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DM Martins Research
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Summary

  • The company's first beat since the June 2016 quarter sent shares through the roof today.
  • I believe not much has changed fundamentally for the industry-leading fitness device maker.
  • I see today's stock price recovery largely as a reflection of short covering and some dusting off of what has been a brutal 2017 for shareholders so far.

On Wednesday evening, Fitbit (FIT) reported a quarter that pleased the bulls. Revenues of $299 million, down a painful -41% YOY, beat expectations by a wide margin of $18 million - even as devices sold plunged at a much faster rate of 38% than it had last quarter. Net loss per share of -$0.15 exceeded expectations by 3 pennies.

Source: Fitbit website

This was the company's first beat since the June 2016 quarter, which provided relief to a stock that has been down about -52% over the past 52 weeks. Shares are off to the races now, after gaining +12% as the Thursday session came to an end.

Non-GAAP margin of 40% was down slightly YOY but was also much better than last quarter's dismal 22%. This was one of the positive highlights of the company's financial performance in the quarter, in my view. GAAP operating expenses, however, were down only 2% YOY and now represent a very sizable 70% of revenues vs. last year's 43%.

Also very important was management's decision to keep 2017 guidance intact. It is worth noting that, using the midpoint of the 2Q17 guidance released last night as a base, all of the EPS and over half of the revenue upside to consensus observed in 1Q17 are expected to be offset by weaker performance next quarter. This can only mean one of two things: that (1) strength in 1Q17 might have been largely driven by timing, or that (2) the management team took advantage of the outperformance this time to set expectations lower for the balance of 2017.

My best answer to this question is "a little of both". Alta HR, Fitbit's new product that was introduced earlier than previously expected, could in fact have helped to pull some of the launch upside from 2Q17 into

This article was written by

DM Martins Research profile picture
20.69K Followers
Daniel Martins is the founder of independent research firm DM Martins Research. The firm's work is centered around building more efficient, easily replicable portfolios that are properly risk-balanced for growth with less downside risk. His work has been featured on Seeking Alpha and other platforms through 2,000+ articles, and it has been cited by the New York Times, CNN, Reuters, USA Today, and others.- - -Daniel is the founder and portfolio manager at DM Martins Capital Management LLC, a macro strategy hedge fund (leveraged risk-parity approach that uses return stacking to achieve aggressive long-term capital appreciation). He is a former equity research professional at FBR Capital Markets and Telsey Advisory in New York City and finance analyst at macro hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, where he developed most of his investment management skills earlier in his career. Daniel is also an equity research and global equities market instructor for Wall Street Prep, where he has developed content and trained hundreds of senior and junior analysts at some of the largest bulge bracket investment banks and sovereign investment funds in the world.He holds an MBA in Financial Instruments and Markets from New York University's Stern School of Business.- - -On Seeking Alpha, DM Martins Research has partnered with EPB Macro Research and collaborated with Risk Research, Inc.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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