After the first week of May 2017, those are the odds, according to Goldman Sachs, that the U.S. Federal Reserve will next act to hike short-term interest rates in the U.S. before the end of 2017 Q2.
And coincidentally, that's also the relative weighting of the amount of focus that investors are collectively placing on 2017 Q2 in setting today's stock prices, according to our dividend futures-based model of how stock prices work!
Of course, there are two main differences between Goldman Sachs and us. First, we're not evil, and second, we probably spent much, much less time and effort arriving at the same assessment, where a good part of what we do involves simply determining how far forward in time investors are looking ahead, a good part of which involves simply keeping up on the news as it happens!
Speaking of which, here are the headlines that we judged to be at least somewhat significant during Week 1 of May 2017.
Monday, May 1, 2017
- Oil slips 1 percent as rising output faces weak demand worries
- Apple, tech lift Wall Street as Nasdaq sets record
Tuesday, May 2, 2017
- Fed set to leave interest rates unchanged, may hint at June hike
- Wall Street edges up on heavy earnings day; Fed on tap
Wednesday, May 3, 2017
- Fed holds rates steady, calls first-quarter softness 'transitory'
- U.S. House passes bill to fund government through September
- Wall Street slips as Fed holds on rates; financials rise
Thursday, May 4, 2017
- Oil falls 5 percent on supply woes; euro up before French vote
- Wall Street ends flat as health bill passes; energy slammed
Friday, May 5, 2017
- Monetary policy ideas from outside the Fed:
- Monetary policy ideas from inside the Fed:
- Fed should start trimming balance sheet in second half: Bullard
- Goldman raises chances on U.S. rate hike in June to 90 percent
- S&P 500 hits record on rebound in U.S. job growth, energy shares
The Big Picture's Barry Ritholtz listed the week's positive and negative economics news (spoiler: the week had stronger positives than negatives!)