Q1 2017 U.S. Retail And Restaurant Earnings Dashboard

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Includes: BITE, CNDF, FDIS, FTXD, FXD, JHMC, MENU, PMR, RCD, RETL, RTH, VCR, XLY, XRT
by: Lipper Alpha Insight

By Jharonne Martis

1Q 2017 Thomson Reuters Retail and Restaurant Aggregate Estimates and Revisions

  • First quarter earnings are expected to increase 5.9% from Q1 2016.
  • 89% of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported 1Q 2017 EPS.
  • Of the 199 companies in the Retail/Restaurant Index that have reported earnings to date for Q1 2017, 66% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 9% matched, while 25% reported revenue below analyst expectations.
  • The Q1 2017 blended revenue growth estimate is 4.2%.
  • 57% have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 43% reported revenue below analyst expectations.
  • For Q2 2017, there have been 42 negative EPS preannouncements issued compared to 14 positive EPS preannouncements.
    Retailers this week: may 22 - 26One of the biggest surprises came from Best Buy. The retailer posted a robust 1.6% SSS, above its -1.5% SSS estimate. The retailer's new strategy is showing improvement in the bottom line, as earnings grew 29.5%. Meanwhile, the strongest SSS result in our retail universe came from Ulta Salon with a 14.3% SSS result, above its 10.9% SSS estimate.

    Negative guidance - next quarter
    Retailers are already warning us not to expect much in the next reporting cycle. We continue to receive more negative guidance. For Q2 2017, there have been 42 negative EPS preannouncements issued compared to only 14 positive EPS pre-announcements. This is almost four times the amount of negative guidance from the beginning of the month. The bulk of the negative guidance (36%) comes from the apparel sector.

    Q2 2017 Earnings and Revenue Guidance

SAME STORE SALES:

Of the 67 retailers that have reported 1Q Same Store Sales, 42% exceeded estimates, while 58% missed.

RESTAURANT SAME STORE SALES:

Of the 39 restaurants that have reported 1Q Same Store Sales, 64% exceeded estimates, while 36% missed.

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