This month I launched my exclusive research service, Forecasting Earnings.
Earnings seasons are often a stressful time for investors and for some, earnings season is a feast; lots of volatility creates opportunities for substantial profits. Nobody wants to be holding a stock that plunges 10% because of a miss, but we also don't want to miss out on one that climbs 10%. Of course, there are also the head-scratchers: a beat but still the stock tanks? As with most things in life, the answers are nuanced and complicated.
My service aims to predict whether a company will beat or miss estimates, whether the stock will appreciate or depreciate as a result and what strategies investors and traders can use.
The research is fundamentally-based. I'll be diving into the company fundamentals, using third-party data and creating at least an EPS and revenue estimate (sometimes more is needed). This is especially important with illogical moves i.e. a beat does not result in share price appreciation. Only by knowing what motivates investors into buying or selling a stock, we can predict these illogical moves. It is impossible to know this without having thoroughly investigated the company.
Who's it for?
The service is for long-term investors and short-term traders alike. Long-term investors can:
1) Strategies to protect their investment.
2) Buy shares at a discount.
1) Increase their likelihood of gaining significant profits from knowing the likely move.
2) Strategies to maximize return.
Of course, there's no rule against holding long-term positions and trading the earnings of said position. Frankly, if you care about earnings, then this service is for you.
How does it work?
I produce consistent daily forecasts during earnings seasons. Additionally, Members get to request earnings forecasts on whatever stock they're curious about. The queue is handled democratically.
So not only do you get my best ideas, you also get to reduce your worries by requesting a forecast on a company you're anxious about.
More than just predictions
Sometimes, it is not enough to have a more accurate number than Wall Street. Illogical moves account for roughly 36% of all the earnings. The service will focus on figuring out whether moves will be illogical or not. This is the true value addition that I'll be offering to the members.
Those who subscribe now will have access to my BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) idea. After the major run-up, investors should ask themselves if a beat is enough and if so, by how much? What is the market expecting and will BlackBerry be able to meet expectations? One thing is for sure, the earnings move will be substantial. To find out my estimates, thoughts, and strategies regarding BlackBerry, you can subscribe here.
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is another interesting case where price movement depends much more on implied valuations. In other words, a beat is not necessarily enough. Given the current run-up to $145, I find it prudent to ask critical questions. You'll find my pro forma estimates for Nvidia in my Market Place. The analysis answers whether Nvidia will beat or miss, what the implied valuation is and what the likely direction of the price movement will be according to me.
Like I stated earlier, I plan on publishing much more ideas and requests.
A special offer
As a special offer to kickstart my launch, I am offering to grandfather the first 30 subscribers at a 30% discount. This means that you can subscribe to my service for an annual cost of $312 instead of $400. If you have questions, please feel free to reach out to me via a direct message.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.