NASDAQ 100 Dividend Dogs Crushed By Tractor Supply's Net Gain Upside Rating For May/June

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Includes: ADI, ADP, AMGN, AVGO, CA, CSCO, FAST, INTC, KLAC, MAT, MXIM, PAYX, QCOM, STX, TSCO, VIAB, WBA, WDC, XLNX
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

"The Nasdaq-100 Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization." 53/100 pay dividends with 41 yield+ 1%.

Top ten broker target-estimated May/June NASDAQ Dog net gains ranged 12.38%-32.34%, topped by TSCO. I screened the master NASDAQ list to exclude firms with dividend yields under 1%.

40 Top NASDAQ 100 index stocks ranged in estimated yield from 1% to 6.7%. Top ten, MXIM, FAST, AMGN, INTC PAYX, CA, CSCO, QCOM, STX, & MAT averaged 3.8% yield.

NASDAQ 100 index top ten firms by broker target price upsides, PCAR, WBA, FAST, ADI, AVGO, AMGN, MAT, WDC, VIAB, & TSCO averaged 18.7% broker-estimated price gains.

$5k invested in the lowest-priced five May/June top-yield NASDAQ 100 dividend dog stocks showed 24.83% more net-gain than from $5k invested in all ten.  Small Dogs ruled the May/June NASDAQ 100.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Broker Analysts Projected 12.38% To 32.34 % Net Gains For Ten NASDAQ 100 Dividend Dogs By May/June 2018

Four of ten top yield NASDAQ 100 dividend dogs were verified as being among the top ten of thirty gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (As tinted gray in the chart above). So, this yield-based forecast for NASDAQ 100 dogs was graded by Wall St. brokers as 40% accurate.

Ten probable profit-generating trades were revealed in YCharts for May/June 2018:

Tractor Supply (TSCO) was projected to net $323.43, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from twenty-eight analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 22% more than the market as a whole.

Viacom (VIAB) was projected to net $285.58, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from thirty-seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 35% more than the market as a whole.

Mattel (MAT) was projected to net $240.76, based on target price estimates from fourteen analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 14% less than the market as a whole.

Western Digital (WDC) was projected to net $221.40, based on a median target price estimate from thirty-one analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 37% more than the market as a whole.

Amgen (AMGN) was projected to net $179.44, based on a median target estimates from twenty-five analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 28% more than the market as a whole.

Broadcom (AVGO) was projected to net $163.68, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from thirty-four analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 5% more than the market as a whole.

Analog Devices (ADI) was projected to net $146.52, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from twenty-seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 25% more than the market as a whole.

Fastenal (FAST) netted $137.33 based on a median target price estimate from twenty analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for FAST.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) was projected to net $128.96, based on a median target price estimate from thirty-four analysts, plus the estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% more than the market as a whole.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) was projected to net $123.83 based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from twenty-six brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 28% more than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 19.5% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 23% more than the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (8): (Bear Alert) Brokers Projected Three NASDAQ 100 Dividend Dogs To Average 3.94% Losses By May/June, 2018

Three probable losing trades revealed by YCharts for May/June 2018 were:

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) projected a loss of $30.41 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from sixteen analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 64% more than the market as a whole.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) projected a loss of $142.93 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from twenty analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 17% less than the market as a whole.

Xilinx (XLNX) projected a loss of $126.48 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from twenty-four analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 17% more than the market as a whole.

The average net loss was estimated at 3.94% on $3k invested as $1k in each of these three dogs. This loss estimate was subject to average volatility 21% more than the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

40 Top NASDAQ 100 Dividend Dogs By Yield

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top NASDAQ 100 Dividend Stocks By Yield

Top ten NASDAQ 100 stocks selected 6/1/17 by yield represented five of eleven Morningstar sectors. Top yielding stock, Mattel (MAT) [1] was the lone consumer cyclical sector representative in the top ten.

The first of six technology firms placed second, Seagate Technology (STX) [2]. Other technology representatives placed third through fifth, seventh and tenth. They were, Qualcomm (QCOM) [3], Cisco Systems (CSCO) [4], CA (CA) [5], Intel (INTC) [7], and Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) [10].

Two industrials representatives placed sixth, and ninth: Paychex (PAYX) [6], and Fastenal (FAST) [9].

A lone healthcare outfit placed seventh, Amgen (AMGN) [7], to complete the NASDAQ 100 top ten for May/June.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top Ten NASDAQ 100 Dogs Showed 11.32% To 32.42% Upsides To May/June, 2018; (31-36) Downsides From Six Losers Ranged -0.87% To -4.58%.

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates provided another tool to dig out bargains.

Actionable Conclusions: Wall St. Wizards Conjured (37) A 8.39% Median Target Price Upside And (38) A 9% Net Gain From 30 NASDAQ 100 Upside Dogs Come May/June, 2018

NASDAQ 100 top thirty stocks were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of June 1, 2017, and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2018.

A hypothetical $1,000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter, the analyst mean target price gauged the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends, less broker fees, as of 2018.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created data points for 2017. Projections based on estimated dividend amounts from $1,000 invested in the ten stocks and aggregate 1-year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance created the 2018 data points green for price and blue for dividend.

YChart analysts' median 1-year targets projected a 7.4% lower dividend from $10k invested as $1k in ten dogs in this group while aggregate single share price for those ten was projected to increase by 8.1% in the coming year.

Notice then the price vector is higher the projected dividend pathway. This indicates an over priced, overbought, condition for these top NASDAQ dogs. The dividends may be solid, but you are paying a steep price bid up by Mr. Market.

The number of analysts contributing to the target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were generally not applied (n/a).

A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column of the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock's movement opposite of market direction.

Analysts Forecast A 24.83% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced NASDAQ 100 Dividend Stocks To May/June 2018

Ten top NASDAQ 100 dividend dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten NASDAQ 100 dividend dogs selected 6/1/17 showing the highest dividend yields represented five of eleven in the Morningstar sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: (39) Analysts Projected 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield NASDAQ 100 Dogs Fetch 12.34% Vs. (40) 9.88% Net Gains by All Ten by May/June, 2018

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend NASDAQ 100 kennel by yield were predicted to score 24.83% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all of those ten. The very lowest priced NASDAQ 100 top yield dog, Mattel (MAT), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 24.08%.

The five lowest-priced top yield NASDAQ 100 dividend dogs for June 1 were: Mattel (MAT); Cisco Systems (CSCO); CA (CA); Intel (INTC); Seagate Technology (STX), with prices ranging from $22.78 to $42.88.

Five higher-priced NASDAQ 100 dividend dogs for June 1 were: Fastenal (FAST); Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM); Qualcomm (QCOM); Paychex (PAYX); Amgen (AMGN), whose prices ranged from $43.61 to $156.24.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

See my instablog for specific instructions about how to best apply the dividend dog data featured in this article and this instablog to aid your safe investing. --Fredrik Arnold

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Five of these top NASDAQ 100 pups by yield qualify as valuable catches! Find them among the now 52 Dogs of the Week I found on The Dividend Dog Catcher premium site, or the forty-two Dogs of the Week II now available. Click here to subscribe or get more information.

Make investing fun

Suggest a favorite stock for my next crowd-sourced follower favorite article in June. Message me with your favorite stock ticker. I will include it in that article. Just send the ticker symbol for your favorite dividend stock (or two) by clicking on the envelope icon next to my name below the headline of this article or simply comment in the comments sector below. Note your top ticker, and remember: Root for the Underdog.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your NASDAQ 100 dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: alfa-img.com

Disclosure: I am/we are long CSCO, INTC. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.