Copper Weekly: Upbeat Chinese Data Closes Out A Slow Week

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Includes: COPX, CPER, CU, CUPM, FCX, JJCTF
by: Jesse Moore

Summary

Chinese data surprised markets with a big jump in imports.

Copper looks set to dig itself in at a near term high heading into a quiet month.

Fundamentals remain positive, and the supply story will slowly drive prices up.

As we discussed in last weeks edition, the downgrade in China's debt had no short term effect on the copper price (COPX, CPER, CU, CUPM, JJC).

  • We saw a big jump in Chinese copper imports this week. The unsurprising see-saw of Chinese imporst seemed to suprise markets, with a sudden jump in copper prices that now sit right around the $2.60 mark.
  • Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) fired 3,000 workers at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia among a drawn out strike that has yet to see a reduction in copper concentrate exports. This represents general discontent among the industries labor groups.

Commitment Of Traders - Money Managers

Money managers saw little change throughout the week, with longs and shorts both flattening out.

LME Inventories

Cancellations at the LME exchange remained high, representing the a arbitrage from LME toward the SHFE exchange.

Takeaway

This week was a meek one for copper. Nothing major, other than optimistic data out of China, was revealed. Despite the quiet week, copper is sitting at a near-term high, and fundamentals look steady for another uptick.

Political uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe is certain to weigh on markets for the forceeable future. Once the political environment manages to calm down for a few weeks, I expect to see another small jump in copper.

Overall, the subdued copper market is expected to continue without any major price movements in the coming month.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.