Welcome to the storage forecast edition of Natural Gas Daily!
We expect a +59 Bcf change in the storage report for the week ended June 16. A storage report of +59 Bcf would be compared to +63 Bcf last year and +82 Bcf for the five-year average. Our estimate was unchanged from last Friday.
Our storage forecast this week is the same as the ICE settlement report of 59 Bcf.
Facilities data didn’t change our storage estimate for the week ending 6/16, although if supply/demand fundamentals were like last week, then we could see EIA report figures much lower than our estimate.
Natural gas prices were range-bound all day as overnight weather update was neutral with the 6/30 week trending cooler while the 7/7 week trended warmer. Looking across our fundamental models, US gas production continues to struggle to keep the same momentum it had earlier in June. The latest reading shows a drop to lower 71 Bcf/d and total gas supplies continue to trend below 2016 levels.
On the demand side, US gas exports demand dropped as LNG flow averaged around 1.4 Bcf/d. Power burn continues to be strong averaging above 30 Bcf/d and providing support for overall demand.
The movement in natural gas prices today came mostly in the back-end of the curve. Summer month contracts remain below $3/MMBtu and traders think this is a great buying opportunity.
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Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
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