Valuing LVMH Group Through 'The Cult Of The Luxury Brand,' Part 1

| About: LVMH-Moet Hennessy (LVMHF)

Summary

In my last article, I described how The Cult of the Luxury Brand offers us a model for estimating the growth of luxury companies in Asia.

The first company we will apply that model to is LVMH Group, the largest personal luxury goods company in the world.

To apply this model, we first need to calculate where LVMH Group's customers come from.

This requires us to apply global trends in personal luxury goods sales to the company's sales around the world.

Once we have done so, the next step is to predict the company's growth by forecasting the development of its per capita sales in each region.

In my most recent article, I described how The Cult of the Luxury Brand, Radha Chadha and Paul Husband's book on the luxury industry's growth in Asia, could be used to predict the industry's growth on that continent.

Their book contains a model for the development of luxury consumption in Asia, the "Spread of Luxury" model. In that model, countries advance through several stages. Each stage corresponds to not only a different economic development level but also a different level of luxury goods consumption. Those stages range from "Start of Money," in which few consumers purchase luxury goods, to "Way of Life," in which a country's luxury market is fully saturated. According to Chadha and Husband, the "Way of Life" stage is the end stage for Asian markets as they become fully developed.

The "Spread of Luxury" Model

Stage

Characteristics

Places at this Stage

Subjugation

Authoritarian Rule Poverty and deprivation

Start of Money

Economic growth Masses buy white goods Elites start buying luxe

India, Indonesia, Philippines

Show Off

Acquire symbols of wealth Display economic status

Mainland China, Malaysia, Thailand

Fit In

Large scale adaptation of luxe Fueled by need to conform

Taiwan, South Korea

Way of Life

Locked into luxe habit Confident, discerning buyers

Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore

Source: The Cult of the Luxury Brand

In the book, the major market that best defines the "Way of Life" stage is Japan. Japan has the highest per capita luxury goods consumption of any major market in Bain & Company's Fall-Winter 2016 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study. If the "Spread of Luxury" model is accurate, per capita luxury goods consumption should increase in Asian markets outside of Japan until it approaches Japanese levels.

In my article introducing the book, I described how this process of per capita consumption increasing towards developed country levels is reminiscent of how Coca-Cola's (NYSE:KO) per capita consumption increased from 1980 to 2010. In that case, countries' consumption rates rose towards American levels as they became wealthier. I also mentioned how Warren Buffett predicted this trend by comparing American per capita Coke consumption to Coke consumption abroad. This trend was the basis of his investment in Coca-Cola.

It should be possible to predict a similar rise in per capita luxury goods consumption in Asian markets outside Japan. In my last article, I also estimated that Asian luxury goods consumption should reach saturation in about 32 years. Using that result, we should be able to estimate the major luxury goods conglomerates' growth. Knowing how fast they will grow will tell us if they will be attractive investments in the coming decades.

Valuing LVMH Using the "Spread of Luxury" Model: Attributing Sales to Regions

In using the "Spread of Luxury" model to estimate luxury goods conglomerates' future growth, I will start with the LVMH Group (OTCPK:LVMHF) (OTCPK:LVMUY). LVMH owns brands such as Louis Vuitton, Bulgari, and Marc Jacobs. It is the world's largest luxury company, with about three times the sales of its biggest rival.

To apply the "Spread of Luxury" model to LVMH's operations, we first need to see what its sales in Japan and Asia outside Japan are. This is actually a surprisingly difficult question.

The company provides a map describing its sales in each of its major sales region:

Source: LVMH 2016 Annual Report

The problem is that these regions are where the company's products are sold, not where its buyers come from.

This is a problem because many buyers of luxury goods, especially in Europe and the U.S., are tourists. According to this chart from Bain & Company's study, about half of all luxury goods sold in Europe are bought by tourists. Many buyers of luxury goods in the Americas and Japan are tourists as well.

Source: Bain & Company Fall-Winter 2016 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study

To use the "Spread of Luxury" model to estimate LVMH's growth, we will need to figure out where the company's customers come from, not just where they shop. This is because the model is based on customers' home regions and the level of luxury goods consumption in those regions, including the level of consumption abroad by tourists from those regions.

To do this, we can use the breakdown from Bain & Company's study above describing where consumers from the largest luxury markets buy their luxury goods. If we assume LVMH's customers follow a similar distribution, we can estimate where the company's revenues come from.

LVMH's Sales in Europe

The first estimate we will need to make is where LVMH's Europe sales come from.

According to Bain & Company's study, about half of all European luxury goods sales are made to tourists from outside Europe. This means about 40,770 million euros of the 82,000 million euros in total luxury sales in Europe. By considering the bar graph of "Where consumers shop for personal luxury goods, by their geographical origin" above, we can see that of that 40,770 million euros, 20,630 million comes from Chinese tourists, 1,270 from Japanese tourists, and 2,250 from tourists from the Americas.

However, we still don't know how much of the remaining 16,620 million euros in sales can be attributed to customers from the "Rest of Asia" versus customers from the "Rest of World" region. To calculate this, we must make an assumption. We will assume that luxury goods sales to each region's tourists in Europe are proportional to that region's percentage of global luxury goods sales.

Source: Bain & Company Fall-Winter 2016 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study

Based on the chart above, the "Rest of Asia" makes up 56.1% of global luxury goods sales to customers from regions outside of China, Japan, Europe, and the Americas. Thus, I estimate that 56.1% of our remaining European luxury goods sales, or 9,320 million euros, goes to tourists from the "Rest of Asia." That leaves 43.9% of those sales, or 7,300 million euros, to be attributed to the world outside of Asia, Europe, and the Americas.

In reality, sales of European luxury goods to consumers from the "Rest of Asia" and the "Rest of World" regions are probably not exactly proportional to those regions' total luxury goods sales. The availability of luxury goods is different between those two regions, so that consumers in one region may have more incentive to travel to Europe for their luxury goods. Also, obviously, those regions are in different places geographically, so one region's customers may have easier access to Europe than the other.

That said, I do think my estimates are close enough to the truth for our purposes. Geographic positioning and local luxury product availability will affect some consumers who are thinking of buying luxury goods in Europe. However, the customers with the biggest impact on the sales statistics, those who buy thousands or tens of thousands of dollars of luxury products in Europe, are much less influenced by such factors. Moreover, even a change of 10 or 20 percent in the geographic origin of tourists buying luxury goods in Europe won't significantly affect our overall analysis. Thus, I think these estimates are still useful.

Using these estimates and the previously calculated data for tourists from China, Japan, and the Americas, we obtain this chart:

Geographic Origin of Tourist Luxury Goods Purchases in Europe

Tourist Region of Origin

Tourist Purchases in Europe (million euros)

Percentage of Tourist Purchases in Europe

China

20,630

50.6%

Japan

1,270

3.1%

Americas

2,250

5.5%

Rest of Asia

9,320

22.9%

Rest of World

7,300

17.9%

Total

40,770

100%

We can apply the proportions on the right-hand column to LVMH's sales. To do so, of course, we need to assume that LVMH's sales to tourists fit the same regional distribution as overall sales to tourists in Europe.

We also make the same assumption - that LVMH's sales reflect overall luxury goods sales trends - to calculate the portion of the company's European sales that went to tourists. 49.7% of European luxury goods sales went to tourists in 2016. LVMH had 10,570 million euros in 2016 European sales; 49.7% of that is 5,253.3 million euros. Applying the proportions from the table above to that 5,253.3 million euros leads to these results:

LVMH Europe Sales to Tourists by Geographic Region, Assuming Same Percentages

Tourist Region of Origin

Percentage of Tourist Sales in Europe (From Previous Table)

LVMH Europe Tourist Sales Attributable to Region (million euros)

China

50.6%

2,658.2

Japan

3.1%

162.9

Americas

5.5%

288.9

Rest of Asia

22.9%

1,203.0

Rest of World

17.9%

940.3

Total

100%

5,253.3

For these calculations, I have combined LVMH's two European sales regions: "France" and "Europe excluding France." That is because we don't have information to calculate what portion of the company's French sales are to tourists. I could make some estimates, but the additional information is not necessary for our analysis.

LVMH's Sales in Japan and the U.S.

We can apply the same process to the other regions where a significant part of LVMH's sales are to tourists.

Geographic Origin of Tourist Luxury Good Purchases in Japan

Tourist Region of Origin

Tourist Purchases in Europe (million euros)

Percentage of Tourist Purchases in Europe

China

6,470

100%

Europe

0

0

Americas

0

0

Rest of Asia

0

0

Rest of World

0

0

Total

6,470

100%

Strikingly, according to Bain & Company's study, essentially all luxury goods sales to tourists in Japan go to Chinese tourists. We can see this by calculating how much Chinese tourists spend in Japan based on the graph of "Where consumers shop for personal luxury goods, by their geographical origin." We can then calculate how much tourists spend on luxury goods in Japan in total based on the "Personal luxury goods spending by local consumers vs. tourists, by region" graph. The two numbers are roughly the same - 6,470 million euros.

29.4% of Japanese luxury sales can be attributed to tourists based on the "Personal luxury goods spending by local consumers vs. tourists, by region" graph in Bain & Company's study. That proportion, when applied to LVMH's sales in the country of 2,629 million euros results in 792.6 million euros of sales to tourists. Because essentially all of those sales are to Chinese consumers, we will add this amount to the company's sales in Asia outside Japan later.

Making the same adjustment for the company's U.S. sales is more difficult. LVMH places its U.S. sales into its own market while assigning the rest of North and South America to its "Other Markets" region. In contrast, Bain & Company's study assigns all of North and South America to its "Americas" region. This makes the regional distribution of tourists in Bain & Company's report harder to apply to LVMH's sales results.

However, we can still get a rough idea of the company's sales in the U.S. that are made to tourists. First, we calculate the origins of luxury goods buying tourists in the Americas, as we've done before for Europe and Japan:

Geographic Origin of Tourist Luxury Good Purchases in the Americas

Tourist Region of Origin

Tourist Purchases in the Americas (million euros)

Percentage of Tourist Purchases in the Americas

China

11,430

41.4%

Europe

3,990

14.5%

Japan

3,310

12.0%

Rest of Asia

4,960

18.0%

Rest of World

3,890

14.1%

Total

27,580

100%

We then apply these proportions to the company's U.S. sales, as we've done previously in Europe and Japan. We cannot be sure that these proportions are correct for the U.S., given that they were calculated for the Americas as a whole.

However, over 95% of LVMH's stores in the Americas are in the U.S. Thus, the tourist proportions for the U.S. should be similar to those for the Americas. As a result, sales to tourists from outside the Americas should be about 33.6% of the company's total sales in the U.S., or 3,365.3 million euros, based on Bain & Company's report.

However, we also need to add sales to tourists from the rest of the Americas. To calculate this, we can assume that luxury goods purchases are proportional to GDP. If we do, we can assign 26.3% of the 3,723 million euros in total intra-Americas tourist sales to the rest of the Americas because that region makes up 26.3% of the GDP of the Americas. That amount is 979.1 million euros.

LVMH U.S. Sales to Tourists by Geographic Region, Assuming Same Percentages

Tourist Region of Origin

Percentage of non-Americas Tourist Sales in U.S. (From Previous Table)

LVMH Tourist Sales in U.S. By Region (million euros)

China

41.4%

1,393.3

Europe

14.5%

488.0

Japan

12.0%

403.8

Rest of Asia

18.0%

605.8

Rest of World (outside of Americas)

14.1%

474.5

Total

(outside of Americas)

100%

3,365.3

Rest of Americas

N/A

979.1

Total

N/A

4344.4

LVMH's Sales in "Other Markets" and Asia outside Japan

We have successfully calculated how many of the sales in four of LVMH's six sales regions can be attributed to tourists from other regions. The only regions left are "Other Markets" and Asia excluding Japan.

Bain & Company's study attributes 5% of global luxury goods sales, or 12,450 million euros, to the "Rest of World" region. That region is made up of LVMH's "Other Markets," excluding the Americas outside the U.S.

Of those sales, 2,000 million euros can be attributed to Chinese tourists and another 1,128 million to Europeans according to the study. 2,740 million in sales in the Americas outside of the U.S. can also be attributed to U.S. customers, based on the study's figures on tourism within the Americas. We calculate this by attributing 73.7% of the 3,723 million euros in total intra-Americas tourist sales to the U.S. because the U.S. makes up 73.7% of the GDP of the Americas.

This means that 47.1% of sales in the "Rest of World" goes to tourists from China, Europe, and the U.S. Some portion of the remaining 52.9% can also be attributed to tourists from other places. Based on Bain & Company's report, the portion from Japan is negligible, but there is the portion from the rest of Asia outside of Japan and China to consider. Fortunately for the simplicity of our calculations, that portion is negligible as well, being dominated by the South Korean, Hong Kong, Taiwanese, and Singaporean markets. All of these regions are dominated by consumers who shop at home or elsewhere in Asia, with fairly limited purchasing in LVMH's "Other Markets" region.

Thus, within the 47.1% of global luxury sales in the "Rest of World" region, 34.1% goes to Chinese customers, 46.7% to customers from the U.S., and 19.2% to Europeans.

We can apply those proportions to LVMH’s “Other Markets” sales. 47.1% of the company’s 4,408 million euros in “Other Markets” sales is 2,076 million euros.

LVMH “Other Markets” Sales to Tourists by Geographic Region, Assuming Same Percentages

Tourist Region of Origin

Percentage of Tourist Sales in “Other Markets”

LVMH “Other Markets” Tourist Sales Attributable to Region (million euros)

China

34.1%

706.7

U.S.

46.7%

969.6

Europe

19.1%

399.3

Total

100%

2,076.0

This estimate must necessarily be a rough one because we calculated the proportion of tourist purchases in “Other Markets” from each region based on Bain & Company’s proportions for the “Rest of World” region. We don’t know if these two proportions are the same. However, I think they are similar.

This is because the difference between the two regions is the Americas outside of the U.S. I don't feel that this area has unusually many or unusually few tourist destinations. Thus, my belief is that the proportion of luxury goods customers there who are tourists is like that in the "Other Markets" region outside of the Americas.

Even if I am wrong and the true proportion of customers in "Other Markets" who are tourists is different than the proportion if you include the Americas, it still doesn't invalidate our valuation. The power of Buffett's approach is that as long as we have the general trend correct, the exact numbers are less important.

Finally, Japanese tourists are the main source of tourist purchases of luxury goods in the rest of Asia. They accounted for 7,722 million euros of the 50,647 million euros in sales there in 2016. Applying that proportion to LVMH's 9,922 million euros of non-Japanese Asian sales implies that 1,512.8 million euros of those sales can be attributed to Japanese tourists.

Attributing Sales to Customers From LVMH's Sales Regions

Having made these calculations, we can now estimate not only where LVMH's sales were made but also where the customers who made those purchases came from.

To do so, though, we need to make a key adjustment in our process. Until now, we have relied heavily on Bain & Company's regional division of the world. That division does not overlap perfectly with LVMH's regional breakdown. We have already considered the effects of this in our discussion of the company's sales in the U.S. and in "Other Markets."

LVMH's Sales to non-Japanese Asian Customers

However, this difference in geographic breakdown becomes even more important in examining the company's Asian sales. Bain & Company's study breaks Asia into three regions: Japan, China, and the rest of Asia. LVMH's annual report divides Asia into only two: Japan and the rest of Asia.

Going forward, we will use LVMH's division. This isn't only because LVMH is the company we are valuing. Rather, it is also because we are using the "Spread of Luxury" model from Chadha and Husband's book. The book argues that, as they develop, Asian nations outside of Japan will progress towards Japan in their luxury consumption rates. This argument implies a logical division of luxury goods sales in Asia between "Japan" and "the rest of Asia."

Thus, our first calculation is LVMH’s total sales attributable to customers from Asia outside of Japan, including China. We can calculate this by adding the company’s sales to tourists from this region to the company’s sales in this region made to locals.

LVMH Sales to Customers from Asia excluding Japan

Sales (million euros)

Percentage of Sales

In Asia excluding Japan

9,000.7

55.0%

In Europe

3,861.2

23.6%

In Japan

792.6

4.8%

In the U.S.

1999.1

12.2%

In “Other Markets”

706.7

4.3%

Total

16,360.3

100%

One striking statistic is that almost half of LVMH’s sales to non-Japanese Asian customers occur outside of Asia. This reflects the overall trend—a 2015 study indicated that over half of luxury goods sales to Chinese consumers occur outside of China. Given how many estimates we made to reach our numbers here, it is reassuring that they reflect overall trends.

LVMH's Sales to Japanese Customers

Next, we consider sales to Japanese customers:

LVMH Sales to Japanese Customers

Sales (million euros)

Percentage of Sales

In Japan

1,903.4

47.2%

In Europe

162.9

4.0%

In Asia excluding Japan

1,512.8

37.5%

In the U.S.

403.8

10.0%

In “Other Markets”

50.0

1.2%

Total

4,032.9

100%

Our estimates encounter their first problem here. The proportion of LVMH’s sales in the rest of Asia to Japanese customers is much higher than what the Bain & Company study would predict:

Source: Bain & Company Fall-Winter 2016 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study

According to the study, sales in the rest of Asia should only be about 28% of sales to Japanese consumers, not the over 37% we have estimated. The reason for this discrepancy is because LVMH's sales in Japan are disproportionately low as a percentage of its global sales. Japanese sales make up about 11% of global luxury sales, but only 7% of LVMH's sales. This affects our entire chain of calculations, leading to a low value for the company's sales in Japan relative to the rest of Asia.

In that context, there are three things we can do with our Japanese customer estimates:

  1. We can assume they are accurate and that the global percentages don't apply in this case.
  2. We can adjust the sales in Japan upward to bring the relative percentages into line with global trends.
  3. We can adjust sales to Japanese customers in the rest of Asia downward to bring the relative percentages into line with global trends.
  4. A combination of 2 and 3.

Option 2 by itself isn't really an option. Even if all of LVMH's sales in Japan were to Japanese consumers - which seems rather unlikely - sales to Japanese customers in the rest of Asia would still be too high. Indeed, it seems most likely to me that the proportion of LVMH's sales in Japan to tourists is similar to the proportion for the industry as a whole. Thus, neither options 2 nor 4 are feasible.

I disagree with option 1 as well. Many educated guesses have been necessary in this exercise because some of the data we have needed is unavailable to the public. However, I think it would be presumptuous to trust one of my guesses if it contradicts the data we do have.

Thus, I think the logical thing to do is option 3. It makes sense to believe that our estimate for sales in the rest of Asia to Japanese customers is too high, given that LVMH's sales to Japanese customers in Japan are a smaller portion of the company's overall sales than what one would expect.

For the luxury industry as a whole, sales to Japanese customers in the rest of Asia are about half of sales to Japanese customers in Japan. I think we should assume that this is true for LVMH as well. This means revising our estimate for the company's sales in the rest of Asia to Japanese customers to 921.3 million euros:

LVMH Sales to Japanese Customers (Revised)

Sales (million euros)

Percentage of Sales

In Japan

1,903.4

55.5%

In Europe

162.9

4.4%

In Asia excluding Japan

921.3

31.9%

In the U.S.

391.8

10.6%

In "Other Markets"

50.0

1.4%

Total

3,429.4

100%

I don't think these numbers exactly reflect LVMH's sales to Japanese customers. However, I do think they are close enough for our purposes. Fortunately, as I've mentioned, the strength of Buffett's valuation model, the one we will combine with the "Spread of Luxury" model to see if LVMH is an attractive investment, is that we don't need precise estimates of the company's future growth. Rather, we merely need to know the broad path of that growth.

LVMH's Sales to European Customers

LVMH Sales to European Customers

Sales (million euros)

Percentage of Sales

In Europe

5,314.6

85.7%

In Japan

0

0%

In Asia excluding Japan

0

0%

In the U.S.

488.0

7.9%

In "Other Markets"

399.3

6.4%

Total

6201.9

100%

Our estimate of LVMH's sales to Europeans roughly fits what we would expect based on Bain & Company's study.

LVMH's Sales to U.S. Customers

LVMH Sales to U.S. Customers

Sales (million euros)

Percentage of Sales

In the U.S.

6,642.7

84.9%

In Japan

0

0%

In Asia excluding Japan

0

0%

In Europe

212.9

2.7%

In "Other Markets"

969.6

12.4%

Total

7825.2

100%

Our estimate for the company's sales to U.S. customers in the U.S. seems plausible. It fits the Bain & Company data for sales to customers from the Americas abroad as opposed to in the Americas.

It is worth noting that I had to make an additional estimate to calculate the company's sales to U.S. customers in Europe. Our previous estimate only calculated the amount of sales to customers from the Americas as a whole in Europe. Thus, we had to figure out what portion of those sales was to customers from the U.S.

This required making the same estimate that I used to calculate the portion of intra-regional tourist sales in the Americas that could be attributed to Americans. I assumed that luxury sales are directly proportional to GDP, so that because the U.S. makes up 73.7% of the GDP of the Americas, U.S. customers were responsible for the same percentage of LVMH's sales to tourists from the Americas traveling in Europe. Again, I don't believe this is precisely true, but I think it's approximately accurate.

LVMH's Sales to Customers from "Other Markets"

LVMH Sales to Customers from "Other Markets"

Sales (million euros)

Percentage of Sales

In "Other Markets"

2,331.8

48.6%

In Japan

0

0%

In Asia excluding Japan

0

0%

In Europe

1,016.3

21.2%

In the U.S.

1,453.6

30.3%

Total

4,801.7

100%

To calculate the company's sales to tourists from "Other Markets" in the Europe and U.S., it was necessary to combine two estimates. Those estimates were the company's sales to customers from the "Rest of World" region in Bain & Company's study (predominantly Africa and Australia) as well as the company's sales to tourists from the Americas excluding the U.S. For Europe, those estimates are 940.3 million euros and 76.0 million euros. For the U.S., those estimates are 474.5 million euros and 979.1 million euros, respectively.

One striking part of our estimate of LVMH's sales to customers from "Other Markets" is what percentage of sales occurs in Europe and the U.S. Like Chinese customers, customers from Africa and Latin America seem to do much of their luxury shopping while traveling.

On Estimates, and Going Forward

Having calculated how much of LVMH's sales can be attributed to customers from each of its major sales regions, we can now use those numbers to project the company's growth over the upcoming years.

Before doing so, however, we must discuss the question of estimates. To obtain these numbers, we have made many estimates. Those estimates have been built on many assumptions. Because of that, it is reasonable to ask how we can know our estimates are accurate.

The simple answer is that we can't. LVMH does not reveal where its customers in each region are coming from. Thus, we can only make educated guesses on how much of its sales can be attributed to customers from each region. Those guesses will not be absolutely correct.

However, I do believe they are approximately correct. This is because those guesses reflect what we do know about general trends in the luxury industry. For example, we estimated that around half of all LVMH sales to non-Japanese Asians occurred outside Asia. This is consistent with what we know about Chinese luxury shopping trends. Similarly, our estimates of how much in sales to Europeans and Americans occurs in Europe and the U.S. versus abroad fit the data in Bain & Company's study. In the one case where the results did not fit, regarding sales to Japanese customers, we adjusted our estimate to reflect the data we did have.

More importantly, our results do not need to be 100% accurate to be useful. We will apply the "Spread of Luxury" model to calculate LVMH's growth in upcoming years. To do so, we will calculate the company's per capita sales in each region, estimate what they might be once its markets are fully saturated, and project what growth is necessary to reach those saturation levels.

We do not need exact numbers to make these calculations. Indeed, as I noted in my last article, there is no way to exactly predict what an industry's sales will be in decades, much less a single company's sales.

However, we will be able to estimate the general trend of the company's growth, and, importantly, to quantify that estimate to see if the company will be an attractive investment over the coming years. This is the power of Buffett's thought process for Coca-Cola, which we are now applying to the luxury industry - if we know the rough growth trend for a company, we will be able to tell if it will be an attractive investment. We will figure out that growth trend in my next article.

Disclaimer: The content here is not meant as investment advice. Do not rely on it in making an investment decision. Do your own research. The content here reflects only the author's opinions. Those opinions might be wrong. This content is meant solely for the entertainment of the reader and its author.

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