Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Believed 13.2% To 106.5% Net Gains Due For Ten Canadian MoPay Dogs By July 2018
Four of ten top dividend-yielding dogs were verified as being among the top ten of thirty gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. So this month the dog strategy for the Canadian MoPay gains was graded by Wall St.wizards as 40% accurate.
The following ten probable profit-generating trades were revealed in YCharts for July 2018:
Cardinal Energy [CJ.TO] (OTC:CRLFF) was projected to net $1,065.06, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from eight analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 188% more than the market as a whole.
Diversified Royalty [DIV.TO] (OTC:BEVFF) was projected to net $340.03, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from seven analysts, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for DIV.TO.
Callidus Capital [CBL.TO] (OTC:CCAOF) was projected to net $319.92, based on a median target price estimate from three analysts, combined with projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 199% more than the market as a whole.
Cries Energy [KWH.UN.TO] (OTC:CRIUF) was projected to net $271.07, based on dividends, plus the median of annual price estimates from four analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 28% less than the market as a whole.
Slate Retail REIT [SRT-UN.TO] (SRRTF) was projected to net $252.37, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from six analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 51% less than the market as a whole.
Combiner REIT [CUF.UN.TO] [OTCPK:CMLEF] was projected to net $220.76, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from nine analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 37% less than the market as a whole.
Game host [GH.TO] (OTCPK:GHIFF) was projected to net $168.11, based on dividends plus a target price estimate from one analyst, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 28% more than the market as a whole.
True North Commercial [TNT.UN.TO] netted $159.29 based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates by two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% less than the market as a whole.
Northern Blizzard [NBZ.TO] (OTC:NBZZF) was projected to net $137.89, based on dividends plus a median target estimate from five analysts, less broker fees. No beta number was available for NBZ.TO
Dividend Growth Split [DGS.TO] was projected to net $131.90, based on projected annual dividend only, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 66% more than the market as a whole.
Average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 30.66% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 41% more than the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".
Top 90 Canada MoPays
Canada Dividend MoPays were ranked above by yield 6/30/17 to determine the top 90.
Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Dividend Dog Metrics Selected 10 Top Canada MoPay Stocks By Yield
Top ten Canada MoPay Dividend dogs selected 6/30/17 represented three sectors in the Morningstar eleven sector scheme: (1) financial services [5 listed]; (2) real estate [4 listed]; (3) energy [1 listed].
Top Canada MoPay stock by yield, Dividend Growth Split [DGS.TO]  was the tops of the five financial services listed.
The other financial services placed second and third, fifth and sixth:
The four real estate outfits claimed the fifth, and seventh to ninth slots: Cominer REIT [CUF.UN.TO] (OTCPK:CMLEF); True North Commercial [TNT.UN.TO] ; Slate Office REIT [SOT.UN.TO] (OTC:SLTTF); BTB REIT [BTB.UN.TO] (OTC:BTBIF) .
Lastly, a lone energy dog placed tenth, Cardinal Energy [CJ.TO] (OTC:CRLFF) to complete the top ten July Canada MoPay top dogs by yield.
Actionable Conclusions (21-30): Ten Canada MoPay Dogs Showed 5.6% To 99.79% Upsides, While (31) Two Showed Downsides Smaller Than Dividends Earned To July, 2018
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates provided another tool to dig out bargains.
Actionable Conclusions: Wall St. Wizards Wished (32) A 8.27% Median Target Price Upside & (33) 15.53% Net Gains From 30 Canada MoPay Upside Dogs Come July 2018
Canada MoPay stocks were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of June 30, 2017, and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2018.
A hypothetical $1,000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter, the analyst mean target price gauged the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends, less broker fees, as of 2018.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created data points for 2017. Projections based on estimated dividend amounts from $1,000 invested in the ten stocks and aggregate 1-year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance created the 2018 data points green for price and blue for dividend.
YChart analysts' median 1-year targets projected a 5.5% lower dividend from $10k invested as $1k in ten dogs in this group while aggregate single share price for those ten was projected to increase by 6.5% in the coming year. Notice, price lower then dividend shows no overbought conditions imminent for the Canada MoPay top yield dogs.
The number of analysts contributing to the target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were usually not applied (n/a).
A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the next to the far right column of the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock's movement opposite of market direction.
Brokers Estimated A 41.35% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Canada MoPay Stocks To July 2018
Dog Metrics Extracted Huge Dog Bargains
Ten top Canada MoPay Dividend dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update from here. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.
As noted above, top ten Dividend dogs selected 6/30/17 showing the highest dividend yields represented three sectors in the Morningstar eleven sector scheme.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Cast 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield MoPay Dogs Delivering (10) 29.47% Vs. (11) 20.85% Net Gains From All Ten by July 2018
$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Canada MoPay kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 41.35% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in each of all ten. The second lowest priced Canada MoPay dividend dog, Cardinal Energy (CJ.TO), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 106.51%.
The five lowest-priced CDN MoPay dividend dogs for June 30 were: BTB REIT; Cardinal Energy; True North Commercial; Dividend Growth Split ; Slate Office Split, with prices ranging from $4.72 to $8.00.
Five higher-priced CDN MoPay dividend dogs for June 30 were: Life & Banc Split; Financial 15 Split; Dividend 15 Split Corp; Canadian Banc; Cominar REIT, whose prices ranged from $9.75 to $12.71.
That distinction between the five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
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Suggest a favorite stock for the next crowd-sourced follower favorite article in July. Message me with your favorite stock ticker, and I will include it in that article. Just send the ticker symbol for your favorite dividend stock (or two) by clicking on the envelope icon next to my name under the headline of this article, or comment in the comments sector below. Leave your top ticker, and always remember, Root for the Underdog.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Dividend dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo from: pinterest.com
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.