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When Should You Buy Apple Again?

Jul. 04, 2017 12:09 PM ETApple Inc. (AAPL)AMZN78 Comments
The Knife Catcher profile picture
The Knife Catcher


  • Tech selloff may not be over.
  • iPhone 8 sales may generate enough excitement to jump back in.
  • Services Segment will become bellwether for long-term growth.

The performance of investors who add value is asymmetrical. The percentage of the markets gain they capture is higher than the percentage of loss they suffer...only skill can be counted on to add more propitious environments than it costs in hostile ones. This is the investment asymmetry we seek.”

~Howard Marks

From the man who brought you classics like, “Why You Should Sell Apple Now,” and “Make Money off Apple Skeptics,” has delivered a new show-stopping performance, some people are calling his finest work to date. Okay no one is calling it that (or even thinking that), but hey, a guy can dream! With a stroke of good luck, Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) precipitous fall from its highs came shortly after my initial piece was published, and almost made me appear to have mastered the art of “second level” thinking.

Not to disappoint, but while I did theorize and predict Apple would drop in price, timing the market is a fool's errand, and anyone caught doing so, should consider another profession - I hear fortune telling is a great fallback. For this piece, I’m going to lay out a few indicators that I would look for in determining the right time to initiate or add to your existing Apple position.

If I could avoid a single stock, it would be the hottest stock, in the hottest industry, the one that gets the most favorable publicity, the one that every investor hears about in the car pool or on the commuter train -- and succumbing to the social pressure often buys.”

~Peter Lynch

If I could speak for Peter Lynch, I’d say he probably would try to avoid Apple at the moment, or he most likely would have bought it in ’97 when the stock was out of favor, and now nearing a 40 bagger (factoring in

This article was written by

The Knife Catcher profile picture
I have a new website (http://theknifecatcher.com) -- Hooray! SO, if you wanted to get a deeper dive into my philosophy or just wanted to check it out (there are some easter eggs in there) it'll be updated periodically.Some motivational quotes below, if you ever find yourself bleeding from a failing knife. "Investment success doesn't come from “buying good things,” but rather from “buying things well.” (Howard Marks)"Cycles always prevail eventually. Nothing goes in one direction forever. Trees don't grow to the sky. Few things go to zero. And there’s little that’s as dangerous for investor health as insistence on extrapolating today’s events into the future." (Howard Marks)"The received wisdom is that risk increases in the recession and falls in the booms. In contrast, it may be more helpful to think of risk as increasing during the upswings, as financial imbalances build up, and materializing in recessions"  (Andrew Crockett)“To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are euphorically buying takes the greatest courage, but provides the greatest profit.” (Sir John Templeton)

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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