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Global Markets Score An 'A' In First-Half

Louis Navellier profile picture
Louis Navellier

By Gary Alexander

The Wall Street Journal did it again - patting investors on the back while kicking them in the rump.

Their July 1-2 weekend Page 1 headline was "Global Stocks Post Strongest First Half in Years, Worrying Investors." Why must good news always be coupled with a warning that worse times must lie just ahead?

Similar sentiments in other news stories might be reflected in headlines like these:

  • "Asteroid Misses Earth, Causing Scientists to Fear 'The Next One Might Hit Us.'"
  • "Terrorism Attack Thwarted, Making the Next Attack More Likely to Succeed"
  • "Summer Weather Delightful on July 4th, Raising Fears of a Frigid Winter"

In the text of their article, the Journal reported that global stock markets collectively matched their strong start in 2009 - the first year of this bull market. We haven't seen a better opening six months (globally) since 2007. In 2017, all but four of the 30 biggest markets rose in the first half, according to the Journal.


Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

What "worries investors" in this scenario is that the four best opening six months for global markets in the last 20 years came at the start of bull markets (2003 and 2009) or the end of bull markets (1999 and 2007), implying that we could be nearing the end of the current bull market. Furthermore, the cycle peak for 1997-99 (left of chart, above) looks very similar to the last three years (2015-17, above right).

Any comparison to 1999 is flawed, however, since that fin de siècle year marked the fifth straight year of 20% or greater S&P 500 growth. In those five years, the S&P rose 220% and NASDAQ doubled that, up 441%. The current bull market hasn't delivered anything like this

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Louis Navellier profile picture
Navellier & Associates was founded by Louis Navellier in 1987 and since then has guided thousands of investors by applying our disciplined, quantitative investment process to a broad range of equity products. Every day, investors hire Navellier to manage their assets in a private account, mutual fund, or defensive portfolio. For over 25 years, we’ve been zeroing in on opportunities for long-term growth. We employ a veteran team of investment and client service professionals who deliver exceptional, personal service and industry-leading information to our clients. _________________________________ Important Disclosures that Accompany Navellier & Associates Articles: *Navellier may hold this security in one or more investment strategies offered to its clients. None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable. Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for you. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. One cannot invest directly in an index. Results presented include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings. Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources Navellier believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and the information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier's judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research must take into account existing public information on such security or any registered prospectus. Past performance is no indication of future results. FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not intended or written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.

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